Eurasian Snow Advance and the UK / West Europe Winter....

[Gael_Force]

Hi Recretos, nice to see you back on board.

 

Where can I find these wonderfull accumulated snowfall forecasts charts? Thanks.

 

There are a variety of snowfall maps available on IWM (some only for high-res part of the run)

 

eg; http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2013100900&var=SNOWCPER_sfc&hour=192

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like the snow has broke in europe http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/snow-ice-cover.html

[throwoff]

As I recall last year we had a big meltback in mid/late october, will be interesting to watch it.

 

I am trying to avoid stuff till early November, I cant take another year under the snow shield!

[bobbydog]

10 day forecast is looking good for snow advance. steady decrease in temps from siberia, across eastern europe and into scandi. snowfall is also forecast for these areas.

 

if this continues on track, we could match 2009 and 2010 Snow Advance Index, 10 days before the end of october!

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=lapse

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=prec

[Gavin Hannah]

That would be a good position to be in bobbydog. The more snow that falls and sticks, the greater and faster the cooling of the Siberian land mass will be which is one tick off the long winter checklist. 

[Skullzrulerz]

10 day forecast is looking good for snow advance. steady decrease in temps from siberia, across eastern europe and into scandi. snowfall is also forecast for these areas.

 

if this continues on track, we could match 2009 and 2010 Snow Advance Index, 10 days before the end of october!

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=lapse

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=prec

Your might be right!!!

[Gavin Hannah]

Hey folks, time to breath life into this bad boy.  I'm doing this today as I work Fri and Sat nights and come Sun, I will be having a lazy day. So here we go! 

 

Re-posting the Snow and Ice charts from the OP and Including the latest data/gifs in the hope that there will be some interesting discussion about the upcoming Winter prospects. Remember, this is purely using Snow and Ice extent/coverage to formulate a plausible projection for the UK / western European winter. I'm also including the 09 data as we did have a very good winter which lead to this famous picture being taken on January 7th 2010.

 

 

 

2009 Snow & Ice                   2010 Snow & Ice                   2011 Snow & Ice               2012 Snow & Ice                 2013 Snow & Ice

 

October 4th                          October 4th                        October 4th                       October 4th                        October 3rd

Ice:  5,618,711 KM²               Ice:  5,696,935 KM²                   Ice:  5,045,982 KM²              Ice:  3,927,099 KM²                   Ice:  5,675,521 KM²

    

October 27th                     October 27th                      October 27th                     October 27th                     October 25th

Ice:  7,668,485 KM²              Ice:  7,751,957 KM²                   Ice:  7,688,250 KM²              Ice:  7,169,323 KM²                Ice: 8,067,410 KM²

   

 

October NAO / AO

2009                                      2010                                       2011                                     2012                                        2013

-2.2/-1.5                                -0.8/-0.5                                  1.6/0.8                                 -3.3/-1.5                               N/A Yet

 

 

October Ice Extent Increase (Note: Increase is taken for the period between 4th - 25th/27th as those are the IMS GIFs used)

2009                                      2010                                       2011                                     2012                                        2013

2,049,774 KM²                    2,055,022 KM²                    2,642,268 KM²                 3,242,224 KM²                      2,391,889 KM²

 

 

Current Ice Extent  -  8,067,410 KM²

 

IMS 31 Day Animation

 

 

Looking at the IMS gifs, you can clearly see that 2010 and 2013 share similarities. The orientation of the snowline is more "elongated" The snow extends further west and there is a decent covering of snow into Scandinavia.

While Scandi had a decent covering in 2012, Eastern Russia has very little compared with 2010 and 2013 especially. In 2012, the Alps too are severely lacking in white pixels, and yet, also true of 2013.  It's becoming clear that making analogue comparisons based on the IMS gifs is quite difficult.

 

 

NAO and AO Info Repost:

 

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

http://www.nc-climat...tterns/NAO.html     <-  This is a good Ref link to read through.

http://www.cpc.ncep...._ao_index.shtml

http://www.windows2u..._gif_image.html

https://climatedatag...x-station-based

http://www.cpc.ncep....f/new.nao.shtml

 

 

500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative AO  & NAO Infopic.

 

 

 

Current NAO and AO Observed & ENSM Forecasts

 

Ideally, for the best winter prospects, we want the NAO and AO to be negative and to tank negative. The best example of what a severely negative NAO can do is March/April 2013.  March had a negative NAO value of -4.3 and we all remember what happened weather wise at the start of spring.

 

09/10 NAO                  10/11 NAO                   11/12 NAO                  12/13 NAO 

D       J     F     AVG         D       J     F     AVG       D       J     F     AVG         D       J     F     AVG

-4.6 -1.9 -3.6   -3.36      -5.6  -1.3  1.9   -1.7     3.5    1.7  1.3   2.7         -0.4  0.8  0.1    0.17

 

Data from here https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/climate_index_files/nao_station_monthly.txt

 

09/10 AO                        10/11 AO                      11/12 AO                     12/13 AO 

D       J     F     AVG         D       J     F     AVG       D       J     F     AVG         D       J     F     AVG

-3.4 -2.6 -4.2   -3.4        -2.6  -1.7 1.5   -0.9     2.2    -0.2  -0.04  0.65   -1.8  -0.6  -1.0    -1.1

 

 

Data from here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

 

And finally, for the solar peeps, here is the solar situation.

 

Sunspot number: 148 
Updated 24 Oct 2013

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

 

The Radio Sun

10.7 cm flux: 153 sfu

Updated 24 Oct 2013

 

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

I include the sun observations simply because many on here (including myself) think the sun has a bearing on our winter weather. (long term effects) Sunspot number has increased and so has the 10.7 flux.  If it continues on track, we could be heading for a triple peak for this solar max?

 

 

And that concludes the October update for this thread. Next months should be briefer as I won't have to re-include the NAO and AO index data. The only reason I included it here is because I hadn't done so previously. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[simshady]

Great thread, great post, very informative and snow cover's looking good.

[Norway Nut]

Any effect of the Sun would be in the rate of change of flux rather than the actual level. So rather than looking at the  flux levels perhaps someone can provide a first order differentiation graph ie a rate of change graph.

 

Really enjoying how the long term prospects for winter snow are improving.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Any effect of the Sun would be in the rate of change of flux rather than the actual level. So rather than looking at the  flux levels perhaps someone can provide a first order differentiation graph ie a rate of change graph.

 

 

Why is the rate of change more important than the level?

[Gavin Hannah]

Why is the rate of change more important than the level?

 

I'm not exactly sure on how it works. I believe there are some more knowledgeable members on here, so hopefully, they can illuminate us both.

[Snowy L]

Any figures on how this year's index performed and how it compared to good years like 2009?

[sebastiaan1973]

Snowy, please take a look overhere http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/page-17#entry2825021