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Jane Louise

Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

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Yep more chances this week coming, like this weekend. Cornwall and Devon look to have the most persistent risk. With Southerly winds that only makes good news for here. :D

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Hope this week brings something of a thundery nature as missed out during the weekend :(

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I reckon it is that. If it was a tornado, no doubt there would be footage and a defined funnel. The Birmingham and Sleaford ones are the only ones that I've properly seen clearly defined as tornadoes, therefore are legitimate. I think this was probably from a gust front or microburst, false alarm for a proper tornado.

 

Oops, did I forget to mention the Oxford one too!

 

I think there are good grounds for it being damage from a tornado. And as mentioned above, lack of of footage attributable to it being @ 7.30am Sunday morning with not many people likely to be out and about - especially given the heavy rain and twilight gloom at that time.

 

Tony Gilbert from UKww has done a Site Investigation with a write-up which appears to point to tornado damage:

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/99985-tornado-incl-waterspout-hayling-island-201013-rfmi/

Edited by Nick F
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Channel 4 Weatherman Liam Dutton's blog today:

 

 

Hayling Island: a tornado or not?

 

Being a weatherman, you can imagine my interest when I checked Twitter this morning to see that there were report of a tornado hitting Hayling Island in Hampshire. There have been reports of around 100 damaged homes, as well as trees and telegraph poles being ripped down in what has clearly been a short, sharp burst of severe weather. Then came the speculation that it had been a tornado that had caused the damage. However, as is often the case with such occurrences, there has yet to be any pictorial evidence to back this up. Whilst a burst of very strong winds has clearly caused a significant amount of damage over a small area, was this actually a tornado? I thought I’d take a look at the evidence and see how it stacks up.

 

Unstable atmosphere

 

At the moment, the air over the UK is what is known as a returning polar maritime airmass. This type of airmass is renowned for producing lively weather because relatively cold air travelling over warm ocean water is heated from below, causing air to rise rapidly. It’s this rapid rising of air that forms huge cumulonimbus clouds that lead to nasty thunderstorms – hence the description of an unstable atmosphere. The radar picture below from the Met Office at 7.30am this morning shows a nasty thunderstorm moving over coastal parts of Hampshire, including Hayling Island, with very intense rainfall – shown by the pink and white colours.

 

 

Posted Image

 

Spinning motion in the atmosphere

 

In meteorology, the spinning motion (speed and direction) of air at different levels in the atmosphere is described as wind shear. When low pressure systems have brisk winds and unstable air rotating around them, as you would imagine, the spinning motion in the atmosphere is quite significant. Given the weather set up today, it is not out of the question that this spinning motion in combination with the nasty thunderstorm that occurred this morning produced a funnel cloud or tornado. However, I’ve seen one eyewitness account quoted in a Portsmouth News online article that described the event as a big grey wall of wind that didn’t seem to have any rubbish or debris in it. There is no reference to any tornado-like formation.

 

Was it straight-line wind damage instead?

 

The eyewitness account I’ve described above made me think that it may have been something called straight-line wind damage instead. Straight-line winds, sometimes referred to as thundergusts, are very strong winds caused by columns of air being forced towards the earth’s surface from downbursts in thunderstorms. As the rapidly moving downburst of air hits the ground, it spreads outwards in all directions, giving a wall of sudden strong winds that can reach between 50-80mph. This can also be accompanied by a sudden, sharp change in wind direction when the thunderstorm has moved through. The Met Office wind observation graph below from today for Thorney Island, which is right next to Hayling Island, shows that between the hours of 7am and 8am, there was not only a sudden change in wind direction (from S to WSW), but also a rapid increase in the strength of wind gusts.

 

Posted Image

 

The blue bars show steady wind speed and the green bars gusts. At 8am, the wind gusts were peaking at around 45mph, which would coincide with the reports of damage on Hayling Island at 7.30am. A sudden change in wind direction may have proved just as problematic as the very strong gusts themselves. When strong winds blow in one direction, things like trees bend and have reasonable tolerance before being blown over. However, a sudden change in direction of very strong winds can have a levering effect and wrench things from the ground.

 

So, was it a tornado? 

 

Unless pictorial evidence surfaces, it is hard to say categorically whether or not it was a tornado that hit Hayling Island this morning. As I’ve mentioned, it could have been straight-line wind damage instead. The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) specialise in monitoring and analysing data and pictures from damage on the ground to assess whether or not a tornado occurred. It will certainly be interesting to see what they conclude. In the mean time, low pressure is going to be firmly in control of our weather this week, so there’ll be more wind, rain and thunderstorms to come.

 

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/hayling-island-tornado/5154#sthash.Ob0F39yX.dpuf

Edited by Coast

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TornadoSouth Hayling  Eastoke, Selsmore in South Hayling com. EnglandUnited Kingdom (50.78 N, 0.96 W)

20-10-2013  (Sunday) 07:36 UTC (+/- 5 min.)

Based on: information from photo or video of the event, an eye-witness report, a newspaper report, a television or radio broadcast, photograph(s) and/or video footage of the inflicted damage, a report on a website, a trained storm spotter, a damage survey by a severe weather expert, an eyewitness report of the damage 

 

Occurring over: land, waterIntensity and characteristics: F1 T2The intensity rating was based on a damage survey by a severe weather expert, a written account of the damage (e.g. in a newspaper), photograph(s) and/or video footage of the inflicted damage, an eyewitness report of the damage.The funnel cloud was observed.Accompanying weather: heavy rain.Path length: 1.5 kmDirection of movement: SW-NEDamage to property: Cars and buildings damaged by fallen trees. Roof tiles removed from houses. Trees fell.Damage to crops and forests: trees downedTornado hit Hayling Island; event developed as waterspout and tracked (at least) 1.5 km over land (Eastoke and Selsmore settlements); site investigation by TORRO; forum discussion via UKWW Forum;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24601190http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?%2Ftopic%2F99985-possible-tornado-hayling-island-201013-rfmi%2Fpage__pid__874913Report status: report confirmed (QC1)Contact: Sarah / additional informaiton: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

 

 

http://www.essl.org/cgi-bin/eswd/eswd.cgi

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I narrowly missed a tornado in 2003(?) by a few minutes when on my way to Swanage, there was leaves/twigs travelling horizontally as i was heading towards Corfe.

It was evident something interesting occurred when i made the return journey, there was a lot of leaf, twigs/branches debris all through the village as well as the emergency services. The debate between locals and amateur meteorologists started, was it a tornado? Gustnado? Straight line winds? etc etc .. A site investigation revealed that two vortices had touched down on Corfe common, evident by the flattened ground, they merged to form a T1 or T2 tornado which sadly killed a woman on holiday.

If it wasn't for the vortices causing areas of grass/gourse to be flattened, it may have been harder to define what actually happened. Always an interesting debate though! Posted Image

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I have just had a drive around the effected area on Hayling, It seems they have done a good job of cleaning up, not much to see really, except for roofers mending roofs. There were a couple of film crews in the area but I think they have missed the story. There were a couple of beach huts lifted off there foundations. My first house and third house saw no damage all the my first house was very close to the path, round 20 meters or so. 

Edited by Adi F
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I narrowly missed a tornado in 2003(?) by a few minutes when on my way to Swanage, there was leaves/twigs travelling horizontally as i was heading towards Corfe.

It was evident something interesting occurred when i made the return journey, there was a lot of leaf, twigs/branches debris all through the village as well as the emergency services. The debate between locals and amateur meteorologists started, was it a tornado? Gustnado? Straight line winds? etc etc .. A site investigation revealed that two vortices had touched down on Corfe common, evident by the flattened ground, they merged to form a T1 or T2 tornado which sadly killed a woman on holiday.

If it wasn't for the vortices causing areas of grass/gourse to be flattened, it may have been harder to define what actually happened. Always an interesting debate though! Posted Image

I remember that one, I took time out and spent time round the village to review the damage, and it was possible to determine the track as it narrowly missed Corfe railway station but hit the houses on the road to the station

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We had a tornado come through Cowshot, Pamphill and over to us at Colehill a few years back. It was a night in Jan 2001. I remember waking up hearing what seemed like a train speeding up towards the house. The trees were bent double with the ferocious wind and there were blue flashes of lightning all around. The electrics went off for some time. A man, just a few doors up from us, said at this time he saw two balls of white light bounce on the road and then just disappear. I rang the met office the next day and they confirmed that it was a tornado. They also said that the balls of light was probably ball lightning. It was frightening and exciting at the same time, unforgettable to say the least!There was damage to a few cottages at Cowshot and a tree fell down at Pamphill.

Edited by Snowkissed
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When did Michael Boulton move to Hayling Island?

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Never seen a tornado but we did have a microburst in May 2011. I thought it was a tornado at first and it's still a possibility but looking back a microburst seems more likely. Winds were equivalent to that of a small tornado, about 100mph from the damage it caused - throwing heavy cast iron garden chairs and table 30 feet across the garden against into a fence etc. Craziest weather event in my lifetime.

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When did Michael Boulton move to Hayling Island?

 

"The funnel was this wide"

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There's been a tornado in Walsall today too. Not too much on the news about it though?

 

And I do wish they'd stop calling them 'mini tornados' it's really annoying! ><

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I think tomorrow especially after around 6pm will produce the best chances for convective action of the week. NAE suggests a rash of showers moving up from the SW after this time to affect a lot of Southern UK:

 

post-17320-0-73815500-1382378504_thumb.p

post-17320-0-24161100-1382378572_thumb.g

post-17320-0-12262200-1382378576_thumb.g

post-17320-0-78638800-1382378578_thumb.g

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There's been a tornado in Walsall today too. Not too much on the news about it though? And I do wish they'd stop calling them 'mini tornados' it's really annoying! ><

Love it. Now I don't live in Walsall something interesting happens lol

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Would agree with you Panayiotis that tomorrow's potential looks excellent.

 

A nice unstable airmass spreads over the UK.

 

Posted Image

 

Further to that, tops to good levels, this is especially true for the time of year.

 

Posted Image

 

The key bit here is the sheared enviroment with the jet spreading over the UK.

 

Posted Image

 

Helicity further indicating the potential for cells to become well organised and potentially supercellular.

 

Posted Image

 

All in all tomorrow will be a good day for storm watching, with the potential for some decent storms.

Edited by dave48
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Yep, looking great tomorrow. Looks like some particularly heavy downpours and thunderstorm will reach Cornwall tomorrow evening. Met Office symbols are very keen on thunderstorms here tomorrow evening. :D

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Forecasts for tomorrow are incoming.....

 

Tony at UKWW going for low risk of supercell development and a strong risk of tornadoes in the South.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/100015-convective-outlook-tues-22nd-oct-2013/

 

Estofex have a 50% Lightning risk and a level one for the West and SW - http://www.estofex.org/

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Wow at Estofex for tomorrow Posted Image some of us are bound to get something . Autumns better for storms this year! Good luck everyone again and especially  to all us storm-starved who have been deprived some what this year.Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

I think tomorrow especially after around 6pm will produce the best chances for convective action of the week. NAE suggests a rash of showers moving up from the SW after this time to affect a lot of Southern UK:

That looks like a lovely rash of showers. I will be watching out tomorrow evening then, here.

Wow at Estofex for tomorrow Posted Image some of us are bound to get something . Autumns better for storms this year! Good luck everyone again and especially  to all us storm-starved who have been deprived some what this year.Posted Image

WOW! Looking good, again! :D

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Wow at Estofex for tomorrow Posted Image some of us are bound to get something . Autumns better for storms this year! Good luck everyone again and especially  to all us storm-starved who have been deprived some what this year.Posted Image

 

I don't know how many more opportunities i can get without missing out on them, fingers crossed to everyone in the same predicament! :)

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Im glad to see that ESTOFEX and other members have come up to the same conclusion as me for tomorrow! Should definitely be an interesting day, and Im keeping my eye out for tornadoes! 

Edited by Panayiotis

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