Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

[Summer Sun]

I'm pretty sure the BBC or MO tweeted yesterday to say there was 80mph gusts up there, i can't remember the specifics. :s

 

Edit: Just double checked on the BBC twitter page, 93mph at the Cairngorm summit. 

 

Seems like the express were not far off for once

[Supacell]

A long way off in weather terms but I have been quietly observing the charts for the second half of next week into the weekend for a few days now and there has been some consistency in the chance of some convective weather once more from around Wednesday onwards. It could very well come to nothing at this range; it has probably only got a 10% likelihood of coming off, but this is better than the complete absence of opportunity since the 4th October. Possibilities of a late season storm anyone?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A long way off in weather terms but I have been quietly observing the charts for the second half of next week into the weekend for a few days now and there has been some consistency in the chance of some convective weather once more from around Wednesday onwards. It could very well come to nothing at this range; it has probably only got a 10% likelihood of coming off, but this is better than the complete absence of opportunity since the 4th October. Possibilities of a late season storm anyone?

Wishful, but you never know! Wonder if this Dutch Destroyer rainfall forecast to cross the North Sea will have embedded sferics in it? 

[wimblettben]

Not giving up on storm season just yet? Yeah, me neither.

 

Looks a combination decent surface moisture advection from the WSW/SW and cold mid levels with approaching upper trough. As you say, loong way out in convective weather terms. But latest ECM, UKM and GFS outputs aren't too dissimilar from one another on the general 500mb profile for that period. Surface details, however, will be everywhere (naturally) lol.

I find it unlikely that that there will be much of any convective activity from now on as we are quite a way into autumn now.

 

And the chances of something like last week happening again are probably 5%.

Edited October 11, 2013 by wimblettben

[Supacell]

Not giving up on storm season just yet? Yeah, me neither.

 

Looks a combination decent surface moisture advection from the WSW/SW and cold mid levels with approaching upper trough. As you say, loong way out in convective weather terms. But latest ECM, UKM and GFS outputs aren't too dissimilar from one another on the general 500mb profile for that period. Surface details, however, will be everywhere (naturally) lol.

 

Although I can hear the wailing of the wind, I am not quite hearing the wailing of a fat lady singing yet, and until I do I shall not give up

[Jane Louise]

I'm not giving up just yet lol. Autumn time can be really good for storms . It used to happen here back in the old days lol. Mind,I've always said that by the sea fares pretty well from September onward.

 

Even though the sun isnt so strong around this time of year these storms can still happen! the sun is not needed everytime lol there's plenty more ingredients that can make a storm.The sun is never strong when it comes to thundersnow so there is always a good chance all year around if that makes sense lol... 

[cyclonic happiness]

Some intense rain moving over into the Midlands right now. Around here it's torrential and there are flash floods.

 

 

[poseidon]

Lightning wizard shows possibility of a water spout off Norfolk/Suffolk coast tomorrow...

 

Edited October 12, 2013 by poseidon

[poseidon]

How about a bit of extremely wishful thinking....

 

[Supacell]

It looks like an area of low pressure near the SE of the UK could trigger a chance of some convective activity through the latter part of today with cold air aloft steepening lapse rates over still quite warm SST's. There is a lot a frontal rainfall over England currently, it is behind this as the rain continues to move in a SW direction that the chance of heavy showers with a low risk of thunderstorms occurs. Current models take the heaviest showers from Norrth Sea coasts inland across Lincolnshire, East Anglia and eventually the East Midlands. Given ELT's as low as around -30c and with very cold air aloft you would expect there to be some hail in the heavier showers. Lightning activity is also possible, although with only very small amounts of CAPE I think it will be the odd rumble of thunder in the heaviest showers as opposed to anything more.

 

The most interesting thing about today will be the chances of waterspouts just to the east of East Anglia.

 

 

Estofex forecast for today, showing that risk of spouts to our east with a level 1 just off the coastline.

 

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

If you live near the east coast of EA, get your binoculars ready.... and probably best not trying to take a small dinghy across to Holland

 

Another chance tonight for some convective activity, with the Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire coastlines looking best placed, down into more northern parts of the East Mids, such as Nottinghamshire during the early hours. Perhaps a better chance of sferic activity along the east coast overnight, but I think most of this will die out as the area moves inland.

Edited October 13, 2013 by Supacell

[Guest William Grimsley]

It looks like an area of low pressure near the SE of the UK could trigger a chance of some convective activity through the latter part of today with cold air aloft steepening lapse rates over still quite warm SST's. There is a lot a frontal rainfall over England currently, it is behind this as the rain continues to move in a SW direction that the chance of heavy showers with a low risk of thunderstorms occurs. Current models take the heaviest showers from Norrth Sea coasts inland across Lincolnshire, East Anglia and eventually the East Midlands. Given ELT's as low as around -30c and with very cold air aloft you would expect there to be some hail in the heavier showers. Lightning activity is also possible, although with only very small amounts of CAPE I think it will be the odd rumble of thunder in the heaviest showers as opposed to anything more.

 

The most interesting thing about today will be the chances of waterspouts just to the east of East Anglia.

 

gfs_spout_eur18.png

 

Estofex forecast for today, showing that risk of spouts to our east with a level 1 just off the coastline.

 

estofex.png

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

If you live near the east coast of EA, get your binoculars ready.... and probably best not trying to take a small dinghy across to Holland

 

Another chance tonight for some convective activity, with the Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire coastlines looking best placed, down into more northern parts of the East Mids, such as Nottinghamshire during the early hours. Perhaps a better chance of sferic activity along the east coast overnight, but I think most of this will die out as the area moves inland.

Yeah, I agree.

Though, I reckon there could be some activity in the rain band today as BBC Weather are showing some very bright greens in the rain, especially this afternoon. There could be some heavy rain this afternoon, here.

[BARRY]

Yeah, I agree.Though, I reckon there could be some activity in the rain band today as BBC Weather are showing some very bright greens in the rain, especially this afternoon. There could be some heavy rain this afternoon, here.

don't know about that it's looking quite stable at this moment down here

[poseidon]

It looks like an area of low pressure near the SE of the UK could trigger a chance of some convective activity through the latter part of today with cold air aloft steepening lapse rates over still quite warm SST's. There is a lot a frontal rainfall over England currently, it is behind this as the rain continues to move in a SW direction that the chance of heavy showers with a low risk of thunderstorms occurs. Current models take the heaviest showers from Norrth Sea coasts inland across Lincolnshire, East Anglia and eventually the East Midlands. Given ELT's as low as around -30c and with very cold air aloft you would expect there to be some hail in the heavier showers. Lightning activity is also possible, although with only very small amounts of CAPE I think it will be the odd rumble of thunder in the heaviest showers as opposed to anything more.

 

The most interesting thing about today will be the chances of waterspouts just to the east of East Anglia.

 

gfs_spout_eur18.png

 

Estofex forecast for today, showing that risk of spouts to our east with a level 1 just off the coastline.

 

estofex.png

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

If you live near the east coast of EA, get your binoculars ready.... and probably best not trying to take a small dinghy across to Holland

 

Another chance tonight for some convective activity, with the Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire coastlines looking best placed, down into more northern parts of the East Mids, such as Nottinghamshire during the early hours. Perhaps a better chance of sferic activity along the east coast overnight, but I think most of this will die out as the area moves inland.

The meagre amounts of CAPE now seem to be limited to the Wash area and slightly above.

[Supacell]

The meagre amounts of CAPE now seem to be limited to the Wash area and slightly above.

 

Very true which is why I think sferic activity will be largely limited to this area. The heavy showers with hail will be more widespread though around and within the centre of the low pressure. I still think that east coast of Lincolnshire may see something tonight. And still the scope for waterspouts off the East Anglia coastline.

 

The GFS 06z puts out an "if only" chart for next Saturday

[Cloud 10]

Some nice convective bands of showers/rain on the radar at the moment,and it looks like the center of the LP has come onshore around the Wash.

 

Meteociel - Observations satellite - images satellite infrarouge et visible

 

[Mark Neal.]

Yes can quite clearly see the hook of the low pressure on the radar. Some stormy weather along Eastern coastline overnight? 

[lorenzo]

A waste of time it was lol.

 

Sfc low centre is currently migrating westward and looks to be situated over central Midlands tomorrow by 12Z. Cold air aloft resides over the country so lapse rates remaining fairly steep--GFS again develops marginal CAPE. 'Wrap-around' occlusion makes things messy, and there's no forcing aloft. Still, potentially unstable environment and vorticity near to low centre means another low risk day. LCLs were pretty low today, and tomorrow will be the same. So funnel/spout risk with any particularly bouyant updrafts that can develop.

 

Was a great post, not a waste of time at all !

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just had a squally line of rain gone through, gusty winds with it. Within 20 seconds, it has gone literally still with no breathe of wind!! Eerie...

[Jane Louise]

Just had an amazing 5 minute downpour here.It came out of nowhere. The best I've seen weather-wise all year Lol.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Very heavy shower with hail just gone through.

[tinybill]

rain alarm  picking very  heavy  showers  brewing  heading  east at  the  moment

[cheese]

A brief spell of hail in Leeds.

[wimblettben]

No thunder or anything but it is raining really heavily at the moment.

[wimblettben]

Hang on, just had a close rumble of thunder!

[Alex95]

Had quite an intense downpour in the outskirts of Coventry today.