west pacific Typhoon Danas

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 23W has formed, over 200 nautical miles east-northeast of Guam. 23W is a small tropical depression with winds of 30kts, and some deep convection over the LLCC with limited banding. 23W is moving west, north of Guam, along the south side of a ridge to the north. The depression will approach a weakness in the ridge in a day or so, and turn towards the northwest towards Okinawa. 23W is expected to intensify over the next several days as shear remains low and waters warm, and 23W is expected to be a typhoon in the vicinity of Okinawa. The exact track is uncertain, but after crossing or moving very near to Okinawa, 23W is expected to push north towards South Korea.

 

Edited October 3, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

23W has strengthened to 35kts, and has become Tropical Storm Danas. Danas has tighter wrapped convection about the LLCC. Further intensification is expected over the next few days.

[Coast]

 

 

North of Guam a new Tropical Storm Danas is brewing causing high surf up to 10ft (3m) high and winds gusting up to Tropical Storm strength for the northern Mariana islands. As of writing this update on Friday Evening this area is nothing special and remains rather disorganized with the bulk of the convection concentrated on the northern periphery of the storm. Yet through the next 48hrs as it tracks west along the southern periphery of a high pressure ridge anchored over the western pacific ingredients will be in place for intensification with this storm system much like its big brother Fitow farther to the west.  Warm Sea Surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear and moisture fueled form the ITCZ will add to the storms development.

 

The information below is based on current track from JTWC in regards to when the TCCOR systems will be put in place for Military in Okinawa. This is just for military. Typhoon warnings are already in place for parts of the southern Japanese islands via JMA. As it is often the case with tropical systems that develop back to back much of the same dynamics will be in place as far as the storms steering influence. This means a similar track will likely set up taking Danas west towards the southern Japanese islands likely as a Typhoon by Monday in to Tuesday.

 

As of Friday Afternoon Models are in fair agreement of a land falling storm system over Okinawa Honto on Monday Evening. Of course this is over 72hrs out and the forecasted track and intensity is subject to change but if this was to unfold it would result in a abundant amount of rainfall for the southern Japanese islands. They need it here following a dry summer but, to much rainfall over a short period of time could result in a serious risk of flooding in low lying areas across the islands.

 

 

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2013/10/04/tropical-storm-danas-forms-north-of-guam-likely-impact-on-southern-japan/

 

[Somerset Squall]

Danas has strengthened, and winds are now at 55kts. The storm is fairly small, but has tightly wrapped banding around a small central dense overcast feature. Based on this structure, it won't be long before Danas is a typhoon, and indeed, there is a chance for rapid intensification as the environment is highly conducive, with low shear, radial outflow and warm along track sea temperatures. The storm is currently moving west-northwest but should turn northwest towards Okinawa and then recurve northeast into Western Japan by day 4/5, where the storm will become extratropical.

 

Fitow on the left, Danas on the right:

 

[Somerset Squall]

Danas is now a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. The typhoon retains a solid central dense overcast with tight banding. It's small size and very favourable environment does suggest that the already fairly quick intensification might just get even quicker over the next day or two. Though JTWC's estimated peak of 95kts is as fair as any, it may well end up being too low. We shall see.

[Somerset Squall]

Danas' winds are now at 80kts, the upper reaches of cat 1 on the SS scale. An eye is now apparent on satellite imagery. The eye is gradually clearing out, which is a sign of an intensifying typhoon. I expect Danas to intensify further and quite quickly over the next day or two as it approaches Okinawa.

[Coast]

 

Typhoon Danas, with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals, was about 650 miles southwest of Okinawa’s main island, moving west-northwest at 35 kilometers per hour, according to JMA. The storm is forecast to curve northward after passing over Okinawa tomorrow, brushing past the southwest coast of Kyushu and southern South Korea before turning northeast through the Sea of Japan.

 

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-10-06/typhoon-fitow-slams-okinawa-on-way-to-china-followed-by-danas

 

[Somerset Squall]

Danas has strengthened further, and is now a 95kt cat 2. The eye is now fully clear, but the central dense overcast is a little lopsided. However, some further intensification is still expected over the next day or two.

[Coast]

Not my words, but:

 

 

Japan to Get Slammed by Typhoon Danas

 

Typhoon Danas has its sight set on Japan for the early and middle parts of the week. A destructive storm surge of 2.5-3.5 meters (8-12 feet), damaging winds over 150 kph (90 mph), and flooding rainfall of 4-8 inches are expected along the path of Danas which include the Ryukyu Islands, as well as the Kyushu and Chugoku Regions of Japan.

 

The southern Korean Peninsula will also get rocked by Danas; however, the worst of the wind and storm surge impacts should remain confined to Japan. Residents in the path of Danas should be finalizing preparations in anticipation of power outages and structural damage from the typhoon. Bottled water, batteries, and non perishable foods are some examples of necessities that should be stored in a safe place when making final preparations.

 

 

For the Ryukyu Islands, Danas will mark the second impact from a typhoon in less than three days. After dealing with around 100 mm (4 inches) of rain and tropical storm force winds in Okinawa, Japan from Typhoon Fitow Friday and Saturday, Danas will slam the Ryukyu Islands on Monday with potentially even stronger impacts. Danas acquired tropical characteristics Thursday night local time (8 A.M. Thursday, EDT) just north of Guam, and then strengthened into a typhoon Saturday night.

 

Danas is packing sustained winds of around 175 kph (110 mph) with higher gusts. The storm is smaller in size as compared with other typhoons in the West Pacific this year, however, it still will pack a big punch.

 

Image of Typhoon Danas late Sunday night, local time, courtesy of NOAA.

 

Danas will move in a northwesterly direction across the Ryukyu Islands on Monday before then taking a turn toward the north Monday night and Tuesday morning. The dangerous typhoon will then get steered northeasterly either over Kyushu Island or between Kyushu and the Korean Peninsula on Tuesday into Tuesday night. After interacting and impacting land, Danas will weaken as it pushes into the cooler waters of the Sea of Japan Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The storm will continue to get steered toward the northeast on Wednesday which means Danas could make its second landfall over the Tohoku region of Japan in a much weaker state bringing some rain and gusty winds. While Tokyo will dodge Dana's biggest bullet, wind gusts on Wednesday could still top out between 50-65 kph (30-40 mph). Danas will then race east-northeastward away from Japan on Thursday, allowing the country to dry out and recover from any adverse impacts.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/japan-typhoon-danas/18546539

[Somerset Squall]

Danas has rapidly intensified over the last 12 hours, and winds are now at 125kts, making Danas a cat 4 on the SS scale. The typhoon has retained a well defined eye, and the central dense overcast has become fully symmetrical. Danas is probably near it's peak, as shear will rise soon as Danas turns north in the vicinity of Okinawa. The typhoon should then begin extratropical transition as it recurves northeast into western Japan.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Danas is closing in on Japan. Winds have dropped to a 100kts, making Danas a cat 3 on the SS scale. The eye has disappeared in satellite imagery, but the typhoon retains a solid central dense overcast. Heavy rains are already moving into southwest Japan, and conditions will get a lot worse here as Danas makes landfall.

[Coast]

 

Okinawa takes vicious blow from Typhoon Danas

 

 

The southwest eyewall of Typhoon Danas ripped across the northern tip of Okinawa earlier today. The western Pacific typhoon had peak winds of close to 140 mph, the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane as it battered the Japanese island.

Storm chasers James Reynolds, Josh Morgerman, and Mark Thomas positioned themselves at the northern tip of Okinawa to experience Danas’ full force (see map of their location below). Reynolds described the storm as a “giant atmospheric washing machineâ€.

 

 

The radar loop of the storm, courtesy Capital Weather Gang tropical weather expert Brian McNoldy (via the Japan Meteorological Agency), reveals exactly what Reynolds, Morgerman, and Thomas encountered:

 

 

Since smashing the Ryukyu Islands (the chain that includes Okinawa), Danas has swung to the north on a track towards Korea and Japan. It is forecast to weaken substantially, but is likely to bring heavy rain and wind to those countries Tuesday and Wednesday (mainly Japan).

 

 

“While Tokyo will dodge the worst of Danas, wind gusts on Wednesday could still top out between 50-65 kph (30-40 mph),†writes AccuWeather.

 

 

 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/07/okinawa-takes-vicious-blow-from-typhoon-danas-video/

[Somerset Squall]

Danas has become extratropical over Japan. The storm force low will exit Japan and head out into the open North Pacific.