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South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>


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Not yet.. No, think it won't be until tomorrow that we know for sure. Forecasters seem to have track pinned down but not the severity for certain

 

Likely to be the track currently forecast now;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

All models similiar in this track, just timing issues to straighten out now.

 

Thanks both of you.

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What do people recon on taking a trip to the coast tomorrow? Would there be any swell as yet from this storm then? Or would it be too early? I love watching the sea.... Would North or South Coast be best?

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What do people recon on taking a trip to the coast tomorrow? Would there be any swell as yet from this storm then? Or would it be too early? I love watching the sea.... Would North or South Coast be best?

 

I recon you would have a swell time down there Posted Image Posted Image

 

Should be abit rough but you would need to be there on Monday morning to really appreciate it.

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AJ has an interesting post in the Storm thread using the high res 12z NMM.

Worth a read, showing some noticeable wind gusts for a lot of the region.

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Any chance of Berkshire being heavily affected by the storm? I live by some very tall trees , and I don't want to be squashed in my sleep! Posted Image

 

Yes through early hours of Monday morning. Some strong wind gusts of 50-60mph for Oxon/Berks area. A lot of heavy rain aswell which will add further woe with our area seeing a lot of rain in the last few weeks after a mostly dry settled summer.

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Any chance of Berkshire being heavily affected by the storm? I live by some very tall trees , and I don't want to be squashed in my sleep! Posted Image

 

My guess is that my location is likely to receive 40mph to 50mph gusts at tops. Having said that, I am in a valley and I very rarely receive winds above 40mph. Winds above 40mph however, are potentially life-threatening. If you are in a vulnerable location, i.e. prone to windy spells from experience, my advice is to stay indoors and wait to see what Monday morning brings. Posted Image

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Absolutely!  We are in the zone.  I need to go and secure my garden furniture and anything else that may be whipped up as a missile.  I have a huge tree opposite me with quite a few dead branches so I fear for it's strength now. 

 

The fact that the trees still have most of their leaves is a huge problem as the wind doesn't whip through them like when the leaves have dropped.

 

Sorry, not meaning to scare you!

 

Hi Sungirl, good to see you in here again. I'm no expert but read my reply to galacticwarrior and also follow the professional's advice would be my take on things. Prevention is better than cure or something along those lines, so you've done the sensible thing re: the garden projectiles.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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AJ has an interesting post in the Storm thread using the high res 12z NMM.Worth a read, showing some noticeable wind gusts for a lot of the region.

 

Indeed AWD he has, just read it, Thanks AJ. I might have to revise my gusts upwards a notch, more appropriately the wind speeds are sustained for more than 6 hours, potentially 9 hours, yikes!

 

fergieweather updates will be especially fascinating from hereon in.

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Will the Isle of Wight be bad sun / mon not really had a big storm since I moved here 6 yrs ago ?

If you live in Ryde it won't be as bad as the South side of the Island as it will be sheltered from the worst of the winds, UNTIL that is the winds turn more westerly, then you will feel more of a blow.

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My guess is that my location is likely to receive 40mph to 50mph gusts at tops. Having said that, I am in a valley and I very rarely receive winds above 40mph. Winds above 40mph however, are potentially life-threatening. If you are in a vulnerable location, i.e. prone to windy spells from experience, my advice is to stay indoors and wait to see what Monday morning brings. Posted Image

 

 

That's along time to stay indoors Gtlw?  I might need some milk before Monday. Posted Image

 

I wonder if many companies actually take notice of met office warnings apart from schools and public sector? how about some of your employers I know mine just look on and laugh at warnings if you point them out. 

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I should have guessed our Mull would have found another way to interpret things. Posted ImagePosted Image Are you prone to a bit of wind in your location yourself? Down in my sheltered valley its rare to get gusts over 40mph in recent years, yes you did read that right, gusts not even mean wind speeds. I say this because some folk in our region will most likely say what is all the fuss about as the storm unfolds. The point to note is its down to knowing your own location, location, location. Anyway, I do believe the hype is justified, whatever changes occur over the next 72 hours. A windstorm is arriving and I have already heard a local council authority is putting in contingency plans, should the worse happen.

Exciting stuff, this weather.

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Yep GTLTW most councils now have contractors on standby and been told to fasten down road works etc. I live near Manor Park now which is slightly up the hill.. I suspect am going to hear this! If it does track further south to France at least the warnings have been out. Better to be safe than sorry. I have been posting the updates/warnings from netweather on Facebook. Friends now know I don't post sensationalised media reports and if I post netweather ones to take heed! Xx

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What do people recon on taking a trip to the coast tomorrow? Would there be any swell as yet from this storm then? Or would it be too early? I love watching the sea.... Would North or South Coast be best?

Look at a webcam instead! It is safer when the winds is worst but there should be a good swell for a while after the worst of the storm has passed.

 

Ooh, torrential rain here at the moment as well as strong wind.

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

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Look at a webcam instead! It is safer when the winds is worst but there should be a good swell for a while after the worst of the storm has passed.Ooh, torrential rain here at the moment as well as strong wind.http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

Echo that cold fingers.. The sea maybe impressive and feel exilarating but there will be all sorts flying about.. Watch on webcam. It really isn't a safe place to go during a storm.
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That's along time to stay indoors Gtlw?  I might need some milk before Monday. Posted Image

 

 

 

Best buy your milk locally on Sunday then. Posted Image  If people haven't prepared for this, especially folk with inside info like us, then we can't really help them. Having said that, let's keep our feet firmly on the ground for now, as Monday you won't be able to. Posted Image Yes I agree, I wanted to see some action but with it comes a responsibility from all of us to stay safe wherever possible. I maintain that the South coast will be where the action is, thankfully coming overnight. Their associated complications then transfer Eastwards, ironically in time for rush-hour. Should one wish to see the swells, get back before dark, if you want to witness the full brunt of the gale, stay out until daylight on Monday morning. Personally, I advocate staying in and listening to it from the cosy bedrooms of our homes.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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That's along time to stay indoors Gtlw? I might need some milk before Monday. Posted Image

I wonder if many companies actually take notice of met office warnings apart from schools and public sector? how about some of your employers I know mine just look on and laugh at warnings if you point them out.

Mine do. We've already has a tyrell message go out to all our depots to lock machinery away and tie goods/aggregates down etc. RHTT has also been scheduled to run Sunday evening.

Maybe timing and STP alterations if things worsen even more tomorrow.

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certainly looking a bit lively for our region over the next 36 hours!......as with all the regionals, there's a few weather geeks around (I'm one of 'em!) so please don't be afraid to ask any questions or raise concerns about the stormy period of weather we're entering into.....Plenty of members here who will only too pleased to answer them for you, not forgetting, of course our resident weather pro Ian Fergusson who's the man with the finger on the pulse of our weather Posted Image

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If you live in Ryde it won't be as bad as the South side of the Island as it will be sheltered from the worst of the winds, UNTIL that is the winds turn more westerly, then you will feel more of a blow.

If you live in Ryde it won't be as bad as the South side of the Island as it will be sheltered from the worst of the winds, UNTIL that is the winds turn more westerly, then you will feel more of a blow.

cheers just a keen follower of weather
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Not often you see FAX charts like these for our part of the world;

post-12721-0-67334400-1382811609_thumb.jpost-12721-0-36631500-1382811618_thumb.j

IF they verify, there will certainly be some damage around.

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