South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[AWD]

Oooee, where'd you get that from?

Err......... The Met Office Sir?

[A.J]

hmm......NW GFS based local 16 day forecast has max sustained winds for my location as 22.8mph for monday......hmm...exposed hill top......me thinks GooFuS is off on one!

[gottolovethisweather]

Err......... The Met Office Sir?

 

Haven't been on their main site for a long while, so it seems the charts on there have improved, I thought there were rather lacking in usability before.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[ARTDEMOLE]

16.9c. Humidity 81%. Gusty now and then with the odd shower.. Just awaiting Sunday morning to see what is going to happen..

[Guest William Grimsley]

Latest forecast route from the Met Office for Monday's storm;

image.jpg

That looks quite good for Cheshire, actually.

[Andy Bown]

10mm overnight has taken this week's rain amount to 84mm, that's since early Sunday!!

 

Some lovely convection at the moment and a few sharp showers have moved through in the last hour, really warm feeling at 16.6c and it was 17.2c before the showers!

[Andy Pepler]

what are the expected windspeeds for this storm in west wiltshire...im thinking i may have to drop my hamradio antennas down..as i lost 2 antennas in '87 and 1 in 2002...its not an easy job and i dont want to have to do it if windspeed is not going to be above 55mph..

[A.J]

That looks quite good for Cheshire, actually.

depends what you're after Will......heavy rain - yes......very windy - not so much......dry - not a chance

[Gibby]

For those interested I have compiled a blog on my website which will be updated regularly over the weekend as new data and changes develop. It can be found at:-

 

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Martin-Gibbs-Blog(2800563).htm

Edited October 25, 2013 by Gibby

[Guest William Grimsley]

depends what you're after Will......heavy rain - yes......very windy - not so much......dry - not a chance

I'm saying that if the storm goes further N than thought, then Cheshire will get a battering otherwise not.

[AWD]

I'm saying that if the storm goes further N than thought, then Cheshire will get a battering otherwise not.

Bear in mind the strongest winds are being modelled on the southern/south western flank of the low. Even if the eye of the low does travel through Cheshire, which is distinctly possible, the strongest winds would be in South Wales and Southern England. The eye of the low would be where a lot of the heavy rain would be, rather than strong winds.To get the severe winds up in Cheshire and surrounding areas, you would need the eye of the low to travel roughly through Cumbria/Scottish borders, which on current modelling, is less likely. Models and forecasts don't have it this far north currently.It's a developing and volition situation though, so things can still change a lot.

[karlos1983]

It's going to be an exhausting weekend of model watching,I may need to have a break for a few days after Monday, then I'll come back and be greeted by immense Northern blocking with raging North Easterlies developing and start the process all over again lol.well here's to hoping .....

Edited October 25, 2013 by karlos1983

[gottolovethisweather]

For those interested I have compiled a blog on my website which will be updated regularly over the weekend as new data and changes develop. It can be found at:-

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Martin-Gibbs-Blog(2800563).htm

 

I'm getting a 404 error on this Gibby, but I'd love to read it and maybe you copy the updates in here as long as "the powers that be" allow it.

[Sungirl]

Hello everyone

 

As usual, the possibility of some extreme weather has brought me here again!

 

I have to say, I dread high winds as I am a poor home owner of an aging house and fear for my roof and suchlike I do much prefer the anticipation of snow.

 

I wonder what Bracknell can expect this weekend?

 

It is lovely and sunny at the moment!  17.4c!!!

Edited October 25, 2013 by Sungirl

[Gibby]

Reposted as wrong link posted earlier. Sorry folks.

 

For those interested I have compiled a blog on my website which will be updated regularly over the weekend as new data and changes develop. It can be found at:-

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Martin-Gibbs-Blog(2800563).htm 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Bear in mind the strongest winds are being modelled on the southern/south western flank of the low. Even if the eye of the low does travel through Cheshire, which is distinctly possible, the strongest winds would be in South Wales and Southern England. The eye of the low would be where a lot of the heavy rain would be, rather than strong winds.To get the severe winds up in Cheshire and surrounding areas, you would need the eye of the low to travel roughly through Cumbria/Scottish borders, which on current modelling, is less likely. Models and forecasts don't have it this far north currently.It's a developing and volition situation though, so things can still change a lot.

I'm not expecting anything much for Cheshire on Sunday/Monday except heavy showers with 30 - 40 mph winds.

[karlos1983]

need to start planning where my vantage point is going to be.......  Hengitsbury Head, Sandbanks, Bournemouth overcliffe or somewhere west towards Purbeck.... decisions decisions....

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm not expecting anything much for Cheshire on Sunday/Monday except heavy showers with 30 - 40 mph winds.

 

Best to see things that way I think, but what we expect from the weather is not a guarantee of what you or I will get.  I expect a Winter of two halves, one half snowy and frosty at times, the other half milder murk. Am I likely to be right, I'll let you know in March.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

need to start planning where my vantage point is going to be.......  Hengitsbury Head, Sandbanks, Bournemouth overcliffe or somewhere west towards Purbeck.... decisions decisions....

 

Henigistbury Head should be good, quite a vista there and as it's a good birding spot you can watch the seagulls crapping themselves as the wind picks them up and dumps them nearer Ramsgate.

[karlos1983]

Henigistbury Head should be good, quite a vista there and as it's a good birding spot you can watch the seagulls crapping themselves as the wind picks them up and dumps them nearer Ramsgate.

Actually lol'd at that, I don't think the birds will be flying on Sunday night, They will probably fear opening there wings as they will be goners!

 

It's a good vantage point, would look awesome if it was to be a daylight storm from there.

 

Sandbank is good for footage, as the wave often come over the wall in the bay, which look dramatic!

[festivalking]

need to start planning where my vantage point is going to be.......  Hengitsbury Head, Sandbanks, Bournemouth overcliffe or somewhere west towards Purbeck.... decisions decisions....

 

St Aldhelms Head I reckon. Down to Purbeck through Worth Matravers out the other side park up at renscombe and take the track to the headland. Just be careful matey!

[egret]

need to start planning where my vantage point is going to be.......  Hengitsbury Head, Sandbanks, Bournemouth overcliffe or somewhere west towards Purbeck.... decisions decisions....

Karlos, surely Portland Bill has to be the place  (I went there for the Burns Night Storm, simply awesome) the added plus being the drive through spray off Chesil on the way to Portland. Just rinse the car off afterwards!

[karlos1983]

St Aldhelms Head I reckon. Down to Purbeck through Worth Matravers out the other side park up at renscombe and take the track to the headland. Just be careful matey!

 

I won't take any big risks, but I just can't sit in when a storm comes along like this. It is my absolute passion (extreme weather).

 

Cheers festivalking!

Karlos, surely Portland Bill has to be the place  (I went there for the Burns Night Storm, simply awesome) the added plus being the drive through spray off Chesil on the way to Portland. Just rinse the car off afterwards!

 

Yes I did consider that, but my only concern is I'm not familiar with the location, I want to be where I am familiar with the surroundings, in case one needs to take evasive action!

[egret]

From the car park at the top of the hill you get the panoramic view over Chesil, from car parks at Easton and Southwell there will be dramatic views of seas breaking over the Shambles Banks to the East and from the car park at Portland Bill you do start to get a bit hairy - in Jan 90 I had to crouch sheltering behind a low wall in full waterproofs, taking real care to keep my footing! 

Edited October 25, 2013 by egret

[karlos1983]

990mb already at +48 and on course..