South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[sunsetter]

Not a bad day here, quite warm this pm with max temp 15.7°C and some long sunny periods.

 

current temp 14.3°C falling

pressure 1005.2mb rising

wind 1mph W

max gust 15.5mph WNW

rain 2.1mm

Outlook fairly fine possible showers

[Andy Bown]

Quite remarkable at 20:15 on 23rd October that the temperature has just dipped into single figures for the first time since last Wednesday (16th October) morning!

[Gibby]

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 20:00HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2013

 

Tonight will be mostly dry with some clear spells and it will be a cooler night than of late with temperatures near 7C by morning allowing a few shallow mist or fog patches in low lying areas. Winds will continue to fall light becoming variable or SE in direction by dawn.

 

On Thursday after a bright morning cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and some rain spreading NE later in the day, light at first but becoming heavier after dark. It will become mild again through the day.

 

Friday will be another very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain across the area, some of which will be heavy and thundery in places in a fresh SW breeze. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year.

 

Through the weekend strong West or SW brings will bring spells of rain and showers across the region on both days, heavy with hail and thunder possible in cooler conditions than of late.

 

Monday could potentially become very stormy as a vigorous Low tracks across Southern England early in the day with the potential for storm force winds and very heavy rain for a time followed by squally showers. The confidence on the exact procedure of events and it's impact on the area are unsure at the moment and further updates will be added over the coming days.

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2013

[Guest William Grimsley]

Hmmm, it's typical that I am going to Cheshire on Sunday just a day before a big storm hits the local area. It's still looking very windy up there, though. So, I'm not too annoyed.

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was drizzly and mild with a strong wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 1.0 mm 00:00 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 16.1°C 13:41 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 25 mph 08:59 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 15 mph 00:00.

[Coast]

Dedicated thread for Monday's threat here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/

[Gibby]

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2013

 

Thursday will be bright but cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and some rain spreading NE later in the day, light at first but becoming heavier after dark. It will become mild again through the day with temperatures close to 16C in any sunshine after lunch.

 

Tonight will see the rain advance NE across all parts with some heavy bursts and a strong SE wind. It will be mild tonight with temperatures not below 12C by dawn. 

 

Friday will start dull and wet with spells of rain but clearer weather will spread NE through the morning with winds veering SW with some sunshine but scattered heavy showers too later. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year.

 

Through Saturday strong West or SW brings will bring a spell of rain across the area after a dry start to the day.  Sunday will be very unsettled and windy with showers across the region, heavy with hail and thunder possible in cooler conditions than of late.

 

Monday could potentially become very stormy as a vigorous Low tracks across Southern England early in the day with the potential for storm force winds and very heavy rain for a time followed by squally showers. The confidence on the exact procedure of events and it's impact on the area are unsure at the moment and further updates will be added over the coming days.

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2013

Edited October 24, 2013 by Gibby

[Mapantz]

I've been caught up in the convective thread so it feels like ages that i've posted in here! I can only have one tab open at a time unfortunately.

 

Great storm on Tuesday, finally, some luck! Now i've got Sun/Mon to look forward to, i certainly don't wish loss of life or accidents, or even damage but it is almost inevitable with stormy conditions like those being projected. I will go out and embrace it though, get photo's and wind readings as i do with any decent low pressure system. Obviously the track could still change but there's still potential for it bring gales even if it does.

 

Cool start to today, got down to 4.5C. Currently it's 15C  and cloudy but fairly bright. 

Edited October 24, 2013 by Mapantz

[Nights King]

Slightly excited by the chance of a big storm Monday although I have to say I'm still very sceptical as these have been hyped up every time since 1987 but in reality we just get the occasional tree down and a breezy day with plenty of rain.

 

Storm of 87 we lost half the roof, the greenhouse and about 6 trees in our garden alone now I remember that well even though I was young.

[coxxy22]

what do ya think sunday will be like ?? im doing the great south run and hoping it wont be to bad ?

[Zephyr]

Any potential for a sting jet with Mondays storm if it was to come off?

[ARTDEMOLE]

A good day today with the sunshine .15.7c....Then it may all go downhill until middle of next week.....

[MP-R]

The Met O also seem to think thunderstorm potential for Sunday morning and from thundery showers on Monday. Any thoughts on this?

[Andy Bown]

I hope it stays dry today so that we can have at least 1 dry day this week (there was only 1 last week too) so am happy that the weak warm front rain isn't reaching the ground despite showing up on the radar. That aside the main rain is now showing up to the SW of Cornwall and looks torrential, although the intensity will probably lessen somewhat as it moves across the region overnight.

what do ya think sunday will be like ?? im doing the great south run and hoping it wont be to bad ?

At this stage Sunday looks similar to last Sunday and Tuesday with some downpours (possibly thundery) and warm sunshine.

[sunsetter]

Remained dry all day today so far with a max temp of 14.8°C

Pressure 1009.6mb ans falling

Wind 1.5mph SSE avge direction

RH 90%

Outlook  becoming less settled.

 

Looks as if we are in for a pasting Sunday night/Monday. Depends on just how the storm tracks, will be following with interest

[ARTDEMOLE]

Gone cloudy... 14.4c. Humidity 81%. A little rain expected in 12 hours....

[Guest William Grimsley]

Slightly excited by the chance of a big storm Monday although I have to say I'm still very sceptical as these have been hyped up every time since 1987 but in reality we just get the occasional tree down and a breezy day with plenty of rain.

Seems accurate for Monday.

[AWD]

Latest from Ian with reference to Monday;

"Met Office modelling continues to paint a consistent & troubling evolution for Monday. However, key uncertainty persists over track/depth albeit some local papers (wrongly) suggest any Monday storm would be worst since '87 in W Country, last real equivalent was 27 October 2002.

[Nights King]

Latest from Ian with reference to Monday;

"Met Office modelling continues to paint a consistent & troubling evolution for Monday. However, key uncertainty persists over track/depth albeit some local papers (wrongly) suggest any Monday storm would be worst since '87 in W Country, last real equivalent was 27 October 2002.

 

Thanks AWD,

 

So we can expect a stiff breeze Monday with plenty of rain   As if Mondays weren't dull enough already

[gottolovethisweather]

what do ya think sunday will be like ?? im doing the great south run and hoping it wont be to bad ?

 

According to Gibby's wonderful analysis, the main threat is later Sunday into the overnight and early hours of Monday, with Monday in particular being nasty.

[gottolovethisweather]

Any potential for a sting jet with Mondays storm if it was to come off?

 

There are suggested to be squally showers quickly following up the main event, so I would guess yes, certainly some potential given the rapid cyclogenesis (or whatever you call it?) expected.  

[gottolovethisweather]

Just in case, you haven't read this post in the dedicated storm watch thread, the post below states fergieweather's latest thoughts on Monday's storm prospects.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/?p=2813685

Edited October 24, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

I've been caught up in the convective thread so it feels like ages that i've posted in here! I can only have one tab open at a time unfortunately.

 

Great storm on Tuesday, finally, some luck! Now i've got Sun/Mon to look forward to, i certainly don't wish loss of life or accidents, or even damage but it is almost inevitable with stormy conditions like those being projected. I will go out and embrace it though, get photo's and wind readings as i do with any decent low pressure system. Obviously the track could still change but there's still potential for it bring gales even if it does.

 

Cool start to today, got down to 4.5C. Currently it's 15C  and cloudy but fairly bright. 

 

Ditto, I will also be out all night, down to Sandbanks for me,  then a trip to Hengistbury head. 

[karlos1983]

I wasn't expecting the radar to go as mad as it has done this evening. It's gone boom in the last hour or so from nowhere.

[gottolovethisweather]

I wasn't expecting the radar to go as mad as it has done this evening. It's gone boom in the last hour or so from nowhere.

 

I was thinking you meant Thunder and Lightning so I had to go check the radar. All I can say is MOISTURE LADEN SOUTH-WESTERLIES. But "at least, it will be mild". Not after Monday it won't thank god. At least down to average Temps by day and night, I am hoping.

Edited October 24, 2013 by gottolovethisweather