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South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest from the environment agency regarding the flooding risk;

post-12721-0-40428900-1382882607_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Southsea seafront restricted from 15:00 this afternoon;

http://www.portsmouth.gov.uk/HomePage/news-and-communications_30986.html

Trees also starting to go here in Bristol. This one from the Soundwell area of Bristol;

post-12721-0-96336500-1382884330_thumb.j

Reports also of a power cut in Pangbourne, Berkshire where a tree has fallen onto power lines. No available link for this yet though.

This from just outside Yeovil on the A30;

post-12721-0-61932300-1382884668_thumb.j

Shows how even a modest gust can bring down trees in our area. No doubt there will be a lot more trees down over the next 24 hours.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

12z NAE shows the worst of the winds to be around 03:00 Monday morning for our area, with gusts in excess of 80mph in exposed locations;

post-12721-0-95487800-1382885183_thumb.jpost-12721-0-25085300-1382885197_thumb.jpost-12721-0-02514900-1382885205_thumb.j

Should clear away by the time most of you wake up though, at 06:00;

post-12721-0-78982800-1382885256_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: portland dorset
  • Weather Preferences: really cold or really hot ! extremes
  • Location: portland dorset

Im surprised there is no warnings out for the wind today ? It's really bad here already ! I'm on Portland though

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

As ever, thanks for the updates AWD, it's invaluable for our thread especially for those without access to the more indepth model outputs.......also saves a lot of us having to enter the 'lions den' aka tomorrow's storm thread! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frosty / Warm but not hot with a steady breeze
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)

I've offered to do the night feed tonight. Have gained brownie points and an alarm call all in one!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

The rain from the first of many fronts is now making its presence felt in the far SW, so here begins an interesting episode of wild weather.

 

Stay safe folks.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Currently S/SW of Ireland at 992mb and progressively deepening;

post-12721-0-99303600-1382886945_thumb.j

With heavy rain not too far away from Cornwall now;

post-12721-0-53693300-1382887106_thumb.j

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall

Ooh not long now. Has been quite gusty here all day but has now clouded over. Will be interesting to see how all of this develops. Hope my greenhouse survives!

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton, South Somerset
  • Location: Wincanton, South Somerset

March 2008 storm saw a maximum gust here of 67.9mph. Be interesting to see how this compares. Average wind speeds here now just above 20mph, the highest gust today was 42.6mph when the rain passed through in the early hours, and just over 50mph yesterday late afternoon. Barometer steady at 998.0

Edited by winger
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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK

Just returned from a fantastic, blowy walk along Southampton Water. Gusts lifting spray off the water and small stones and sand (painful!) off the beach.

 

Steady 25mph winds here in urban Southampton with a max gust of 51.3mph yesterday, Barometer steady at 999mb.

 

Might have a little napette this afternoon so that I can join in the fun tonight. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Reports that both Southern Trains and South West Trains won't be operating any services until at least 08:00 tomorrow morning, possibly longer.

Good luck to those of you who commute down that part of the world.

http://www.southernrailway.com/southern/news/monday-28-october/

http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk/alerts.aspx

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

A good stiff breeze outside this afternoon although not to bad currently I guess it will strengthen rapidly over night tonight.

 

very mild also at 12.4c

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

We have been down to Brean and up on brean down today - wow! That was windy! Got caught in a couple of showers too.

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Posted
  • Location: North Waltham, near Basingstoke, Hants
  • Location: North Waltham, near Basingstoke, Hants

I always use this site for my windsurfing in the solent:-

 

http://www.bramblemet.co.uk

 

Great for live data.

 

Here in mid north hants gusting 20-25mph on my weather station, tho not best location for accurate readings.

 

Looking forward to tonight tho thing this storm is being over ramped

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Posted
  • Location: North Waltham, near Basingstoke, Hants
  • Location: North Waltham, near Basingstoke, Hants

The track of this low pressure is key to everything.

At the moment the worst is going to be out in the channel.

If the whole thing shifts North the South will be in big trouble, I expect this is why met office are keeping their warnings out.

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

Currently S/SW of Ireland at 992mb and progressively deepening;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

With heavy rain not too far away from Cornwall now;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

 

Nice chart, whats your source for the first one.

 

I note its almost on a parallel (the low possible a smudging further north) than what the GFS 12z+3 shows:

 

Await the 12z meto and ecm updates:

 

NAE

 

Whats interesting is the exit point and track and time.

 

GFS has it heading in through the Bristol channel, on a bearing of appx 050-060 degrees to exit north of the Wash at a central pressure of 980.

 

 

NAE has it a smidging further south and more inland at the same timestamp as above for the GFS

 

Then exiting at roughly a similar position to the GFS, but lower central pressure at 972mb and 3 hours later (again possibly a smudging south, but not anything significant in terms of accuracy when  comparing to the GFS).

 

So effectively taking 3 hours longer to cross, but also arriving slightly later.

 

I have to say if the GFS comes to be correct on timings, much of the main event will have disappeared by the time we wake up tomorrow to any damage cause. Whereas the NAE prolongs this further.

 

Await ECM and UKMET, but this must be a forecasting nightmare, intensity of the depth is still being questioned by major models and exact track is still also up for some debate (albeit within a corridor that's probably not much more than 50 miles wide).

 

For comparison,. the UK Met 00 Fax has the low in 8 hours time (e.g. midnight) somewhere in the Bristol Channel at a depth of 977

 

which compares to the GFS at 00:00 as 983mb and the NAE as 978 mb....all roughly in the Bristol channel or SW approaches to it.

 

As for those harping on about the met office red warning being used. Take a look at the impact matrix, this has already been identified as a high impact event, the likelihood is the only parameter that needs to be made 'more certain' to trigger red warnings. So, unless the intensity goes along the line of the GFS and there is somehow a reduction in impact as a result, I would expect to see some red warnings as the certainty of this event becomes clearer.

 

Stay safe!

 

ARGHHH me charts haven't worked!

Edited by john w
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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury, Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: Everything in small doses!
  • Location: Salisbury, Wiltshire

Ran the Great South run in Southsea this morning and at times I was lifted off my feet. Can't believe the wind speed can be double that tomorrow morning! Exciting but dangerous!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire 77m ASL
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire 77m ASL

I am developing a nasty headache.  Could this be due to the air pressure?  Haven't had a non-alcohol related headache in a long time :(

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Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

W COUNTRY UPDATE 1630GMT Rain turning heavy this eve into tonight. Winds pick-up especially into early hours. Between 3-6am gusts 50-70mph..

 

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 3m
W COUNTRY CONTD... with potential for short phase 80+ mph especially #Somerset from #Burnham up into #Bristol, N Somerset, #Mendips, #B&NES
Edited by lfcdude
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Posted
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frosty / Warm but not hot with a steady breeze
  • Location: Filton, Bristol (62m ASL 210ft)

Holy sweet mother Mary that's a massive lump of rain on it's way over

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

I am developing a nasty headache.  Could this be due to the air pressure?  Haven't had a non-alcohol related headache in a long time Posted Image

My headache is more to do with looking at latest models. TV off, radio off, news sites in particular off

Burnt out.

Local south west forecast said the band of heavy rain coming up from south overnight

But looking at lastest radar, it's already across Cornwall & South Devon... kinda thinking ahead of schedule

Going to lay down

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather6m

W COUNTRY UPDATE 1630GMT Rain turning heavy this eve into tonight. Winds pick-up especially into early hours. Between 3-6am gusts 50-70mph..

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 3m

W COUNTRY CONTD... with potential for short phase 80+ mph especially #Somerset from #Burnham up into #Bristol, N Somerset, #Mendips, #B&NES

80mph wind gusts WILL cause damage, especially in urban areas like Bristol, no matter how brief it may last. :(
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