South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[Andy Bown]

Torrential rain for around 15mins at 04.00, now a gloriously sunny and breezy morning! 

As for what happens tonight/tomorrow ; it's the weather, it's in charge and will do what it wants not what any of us think or want it to! 

[SteveB]

Well I'm happy the wind isn't going to be as strong as forecast.

 

My least favourite weather event purely for the damage it causes, plus the sleepless night I would have had.

 

Still hopefully for a bit of rain

[Rustynailer]

Nice and windy here, sunny spells and the odd spot or two of horizontal rain in the air, plus lots of Gulls making that lovely sound only Gulls make as they blow by, safer here for now they think.

On the Isle of Wight at St Catherine's point we(!) still hold the record for England(not UK) wind speed at sea level, from 1987, 124mph as far as I can remember, please correct me if I am wrong.

 

I witnessed panic buying yesterday in Freshwater, for the first time in my life I saw a supermarket packed with people talking about the coming storm, I felt at the time whilst queuing, that some people on the Netweather forum may make a comparison with the USA in that respect. No disrespect to the USA, just pointing out that we have caught up...

The power of the Internet eh...In 87 even if they said on TV "There is a very big storm coming" I do not think we would have witnessed such buying.

Anyway I think it will take some storm to beat the 87 storm or the 90 two day storm in these parts. Of course that sort of storm is not forecast thankfully, but it still may cause significant disruption, we will see whether there are food shortages or power cuts of such significant magnitude to justify stocking up the larder and the shed and the car boot

 

I think I had better go and get a few bottles of beer before it all gets bought up.....

Edited October 27, 2013 by Rustynailer

[jessandjon]

Was very windy this morning with a couple of rumbles!!!

[ARTDEMOLE]

Breezy 9.7 km/h. Temperature 12.3c in sunshine. Some cloud around. This mornings early precipitation  came to 3.9mm. Humidity 80% Pressure 997.7 hpa.

[Nights King]

Well I know many will say how lucky we are for it to be dumbed down into a windy day if it is but lets be honest most of us were looking forward to a good old storm... 

Edited October 27, 2013 by mullender83

[Sainsbo]

The models downgraded this system quite fast, it wasn't a gradual thing over a few days. What's to suggest that in the next few outputs it won't be more intense again? We've all seen first hand how the models have been with this low, and it seems most of them models have had a real hard time predicting the intensity and track of this. I think people are ruling things out too early. We may still be surprised yet.

[MR EXTREMES]

Dunno about this its very windy now here in Portsmouth.

[DanDorsetUK]

Wind has really picked up here in Bournemouth too! Also is it me or can you feel the pressure changing? I got a headache starting to come, and my wife just said shes starting to feel heavy and tired! Can the pressure dropping do this?

Edited October 27, 2013 by Rapodo

[cloudbase]

Wind has really picked up here in Bournemouth too! Also is it me or can you feel the pressure changing? I got a headache starting to come, and my wife just said shes starting to feel heavy and tired! Can the pressure dropping do this?

A heavy Saturday night on the sauce can

[sunsetter]

Wind is picking up here since early this morning when we had a squally shower. Max gust 19.5mph at 11.27am. 

Minimum pressure today so far was 992.6mb at 4.09 am and currently 997.4mb and rising slowly.

Intermittent sunny periods

[gottolovethisweather]

Certainly not too sure it has been dumbed down necessarily, but I would say, solely based on the GFS 6z projection, it is moving through quicker than anticipated. It is still a storm, not to be messed with given the estimated wind speeds, estimated gusts and torrential rain and flooding. 

 

By 0200GMT Monday, the worst of the wind and I presume associated rainfall will have cleared the SW and will largely be effecting central parts of Southern England and coastal parts of Southern England by then.

 

Expected mean Wind speeds and Gusts

 

 

 

 

By 0500GMT Monday, the worst of the wind and I presume associated rainfall will largely be effecting vast parts of South-eastern England but still very windy on the coasts by then.

 

Expected mean Wind speeds and Gusts

 

 

 

By 0800GMT Monday, the worst of the wind and I presume associated rainfall will largely be effecting extreme South-eastern England by then.

 

Expected mean Wind speeds and Gusts

 

 

So, in summary this particular run seems to suggest a big segment of England will have dodged a bullet. Nevertheless, I feel it is totally wrong to suggest that a potentially damaging storm is not, still a distinct possibility.  Truth is, only over the coming hours will be able to contemplate what IS coming our way. This afternoon's runs will be scrutinised by Professionals and enthusiasts alike, and even then Mother Nature will most likely have the last laugh.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Moleyroley]

Well it's pretty bad already here on Portland so I'm slightly worried about what's to come later !

[Sungirl]

Wind has certainly picked up here.  We have wind speeds of 20mph and gusts of 39mph but brilliant sunshine and 15.9c!

 

I wish I could stay up and listen out for the storm tonight but I could sleep through an apocalypse and have work tomorrow so have to go to bed :/

[Zephyr]

I have tomorrow off work which is lucky and I will be up most of the night watching NFL so should see the storm come and go in that space of time!

[gottolovethisweather]

Wind has certainly picked up here.  We have wind speeds of 20mph and gusts of 39mph but brilliant sunshine and 15.9c!

 

I wish I could stay up and listen out for the storm tonight but I could sleep through an apocalypse and have work tomorrow so have to go to bed :/

 

Storm adrenaline will keep me up.

[snip]

I have a saved download from 6 weeks ago. This storm, position, timing and intensity was forecast by Piers Corbyn 6 weeks ago. He was absolutely spot on

Edited October 27, 2013 by snip

[Sungirl]

I heard he predicted this some time back too.  I believe he still thinks it is going to be MASSIVE!

[Chief Wiggam]

Chimet now showing F8 with F9 gusts..... Yarmouth lifeboat launch being reported..... Its coming!

[AWD]

From Ian;

"ukstorm UPDATE 1120GMT: As previously billed. Expect strongest winds 0200-0600 Mon. Poss gusts 70-75+mph (incl. #Bristol area)."

That's a worsening for Bristol compared to yesterday. Quite worrying for an urban catchment really.

[MPG]

From Ian;"ukstorm UPDATE 1120GMT: As previously billed. Expect strongest winds 0200-0600 Mon. Poss gusts 70-75+mph (incl. #Bristol area)."That's a worsening for Bristol compared to yesterday. Quite worrying for an urban catchment really.

Bugger - storm upgraded IMBY by all accounts.

[Skullzrulerz]

Bugger - storm upgraded IMBY by all accounts.

??? Models?

[AWD]

Latest Met Office forecast track;

Despite some of the crud circling about in the storm thread, the latest professional analysis still suggests this being a very noticeable storm for a good part of the region, especially nearer the south coast.

Whilst it may have relaxed away from some of the worse forecasts/model output over the last 48 hours, it's hardly dwindled down into kite flying territory. Precautions should still be taken, parts of the region still look like recording highly noticeable gusts at it's peak. Along with the heavy rain accompanying it, some travel disruption is very likely Monday morning.

I'll do a full analysis of my thoughts after the 12z output tonight.

Edited October 27, 2013 by AWD

[DanDorsetUK]

Quite alot of rain now showing out to the south west, this can be seen better using the europe meteox radar http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop3uur

[gaztig]

I heard he predicted this some time back too.  I believe he still thinks it is going to be MASSIVE!

He also said that the met office should move the track a bit to the south which they did , and yes he is warning of it being massive , on par with 87 storm . ferocious rain , hail , thunderfloods and tornados expected. And to predict this 6 weeks ago using his methods needs to be taken notice of in my eyes. 

I have a saved download from 6 weeks ago. This storm, position, timing and intensity was forecast by Piers Corbyn 6 weeks ago. He was absolutely spot on

 

 

I heard he predicted this some time back too.  I believe he still thinks it is going to be MASSIVE!

 

He also said that the met office should move the track a bit to the south which they did , and yes he is warning of it being massive , on par with 87 storm . ferocious rain , hail , thunderfloods and tornados expected. And to predict this 6 weeks ago using his methods needs to be taken notice of in my eyes.