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South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

I really dont know what to make of this, its to big a change in my eyes!

Think of a yo-yo; classic GFS characteristic lol.

 

If there was one model not to trust in short range, it'd be this one. The latest output is a huge change and unless subsequent runs show similar, some salt is required.

Edited by Chris D
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Now its when this happens that just adds another twist to the story, however I still think it doesn't look right, I think the 00z along with the other 00z models will clear things up.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

The wording from the Met Office local forecast for south-west England

 

Headlines reads:

Damaging winds Sunday night and Monday morning.

 

Think it's time to go into storm prep mode

 

Or buy yourself some of these...

 

post-8911-0-93437600-1382825051_thumb.jp

 

stay safe Posted Image

 

Oh dear its not all changing is it... Posted Image

Edited by mullender83
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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

If it is a downgrade, I'm blummin annoyed... I always get sucked in! Another year.. Another case of getting sucked in by all the drama. Hopefully it's just a case of the pub run strikes again

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Remind me never to ramp up the charts to family again, i should of learnt my lesson from last winter! This is looking like a very big downgrade, with only 24hrs or so to go you cant dismiss this gfs run as total rubbish!

Edited by Rapodo
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

jeez, some serious 'drama queen' type posts in here....remember a model run is basically a huge amount of data run through very complex algorithms to give an output. This output is dependent on the data used and the slightest variance of data can have a huge knock-on effect even at relatively short time scales, best advice I can give is to think before posting and keep a close eye on the hi-res model outputs and the ECM, generally these publicly available outputs are a good bet in terms of accuracy

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Remind me never to ramp up the charts to family again, i should of learnt my lesson from last winter! This is looking like a very big downgrade, with only 24hrs or so to go you cant dismiss this gfs run as total rubbish!

Equally you can't over react to a single GFS run either.We have 0z and 12z output to go tomorrow still, so plenty of time for better clarity yet.
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Posted
  • Location: Henley on Thames 35m asl (Oxfordshire/Berkshire borders)
  • Weather Preferences: Exciting extremes - snow, wind, storms... love it all!
  • Location: Henley on Thames 35m asl (Oxfordshire/Berkshire borders)

Very heavy rainfall now, bashing around on the windows... night all!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest from Ian;

"#ukstorm UPDATE 23:15BST: Latest analysis from @metoffice offers similar story (& a 25% probability of less significant winds)."

So a significant storm event still favoured by the Met Office, with a GFS 18z scenario less likely but not dismissed.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

jeez, some serious 'drama queen' type posts in here....remember a model run is basically a huge amount of data run through very complex algorithms to give an output. This output is dependent on the data used and the slightest variance of data can have a huge knock-on effect even at relatively short time scales, best advice I can give is to think before posting and keep a close eye on the hi-res model outputs and the ECM, generally these publicly available outputs are a good bet in terms of accuracy

Yup, I am a drama queen, always have been, always will be :) but I guess it's all part of the thrill of the chase for me.... I'm off to bed now. I wonder what tomorrow will bring?
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

No guesses to what I'll be doing when I wake up tomorrow, straight on the models with fingers and toes all crossed that every model on the planet is laughing at the 18z GFS.

 

Night all, may or may not see y'all tomoz

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

It'll be bad enough for our part of the UK. Forget the guesswork merchants, just listen to the true pros on Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

It'll be bad enough for our part of the UK. Forget the guesswork merchants, just listen to the true pros on Sunday.

amen

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Guest William Grimsley

It was wet and mild with a strong wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 55.2 mm/hr 20:35 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 2.6 mm 20:56 Rainfall Yesterday: 3.8 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 15.8°C 13:05 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 35 mph 20:11 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 18 mph 19:35.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

amen

we just had a warm up here over nite very windy  , just watched bbc weather  as far as the met office is saying  its still on we all know  what the pub run like,

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Can someone give me a summary of what we are up against? I'm confused this morning! I was reading downgrades but others aren't so sure.... Confused?!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Abbot, Devon.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunder
  • Location: Newton Abbot, Devon.

Latest from Ian on Twitter:

"@fergieweather: W COUNTRY #ukstorm UPDATE 0730GMT: Increased hope of a less developed system tomorrow AM; uncertainty; but full update around 10-11am today."

The Met Office on Twitter have also said they will be revisiting the warnings later this morning, so just keep an eye on what they have to say.

Edited by George
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 27TH 2013

 

Sunday will be bright and very breezy with some squally and heavy showers with strong Westerly winds and just brief and fleeting bright or sunny intervals. It will feel chilly in the wind. Late in the day winds will back towards the SE and it will become wet after dark but the severity of the gales looks like being downgraded somewhat this morning.

Nevertheless,

 

Tonight will be very wet with a prolonged spell of heavy rain and as the rain begins to clear East towards dawn winds will increase to severe gale force in places with gusts to 50-60mph possible on what will be an academically mild night with temperatures around 11C.

 

Monday will be a very windy day, especially at first with severe gale force wind gusts causing a little structural damage in places. As the Low tracks across Wales early in the day very heavy rain for a time will be followed by squally showers. Winds will die down after lunch with sunshine and squally showers likely to end the day.

 

Tuesday will be very windy with showers and sunny spells and rather cold weather. The blustery NW wind will continue to die down through the day as will the showers, dying out entirely by nightfall.

 

Wednesday will see brisk Westerly winds and rather cloudy weather with the chance of some rain but there will be some drier spells and though breezy it will be far less windy than at the beginning of the week.

 

By Thursday winds will still be blowing briskly from the West with unsettled weather still prevailing wit some rain at times. Temperatures as a consolation will become close to or a little above average.

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 20:00 HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 27TH 2013

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Guest William Grimsley

There were no thundery showers last night except a squall line at 02:42, here. High Rainfall Rate Today: 15.0 mm/hr 02:42 High Wind Gust Today: 26 mph 03:12.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Abbot, Devon.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunder
  • Location: Newton Abbot, Devon.

Nothing is over just yet.

"@fergieweather: W COUNTRY #ukstorm The current @metoffice assessment suggests 60-70% chance of a developed storm; 30-40% chance one much less so. More later"

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Good Morning all, still talk of a downgrade then, not looked at any charts yet, but still best to be prepared just in case, of to sort the garden out while there is a break in the rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Good Morning all, still talk of a downgrade then, not looked at any charts yet, but still best to be prepared just in case, of to sort the garden out while there is a break in the rain!

I don't think I'm even going to bother now.
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