South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[legritter]

A little bit of a weather system approaching our region from the west ,a bit of a taster over next 12 hrs or so to get us in the mood ,the full monty later tomorrow and early monday .the real potential for extreme weather but as always tomorrows charts and data will im sure give us a good guide on what to expect ,sit back crack open a bear enjoy a drink make yourselves a nice sausage sandwich ,radar and sattelite watching will be the key tomorrow ,Wind as picked up here but as of yet no rain .And if IAN is about thanks for your posts on our regional thread 

[Guest William Grimsley]

I'm surprised that no one has mention this evenings' winds. They are pretty wild. Also, I'm surprised no warning was issued for this evening, too. 

[Mumbles]

Pretty blowy out there this evening ahead of tomorrow's big one! Stay safe all x

[Polar Bear]

I'm surprised that no one has mention this evenings' winds. They are pretty wild. Also, I'm surprised no warning was issued for this evening, too.

The shipping forecast is stepping up a gear onWight and Dover...

[Guest William Grimsley]

The shipping forecast is stepping up a gear onWight and Dover...

That seems inevitable in these winds...

[Moleyroley]

It's pretty windy out there tonight , dread to think what it's going to be like come tomorrow night here on Portland ! Worrying !

[dec10snow]

Oh wow... People on Facebook... Make me mad... In a nerdy sense

Someone was saying about 90mph winds being forecast, and someone else said something about a hurricane... I'm sat here like; that's what happens if sensationalist headlines are put out!

[karlos1983]

in the meantime, the old radar is looking lively out west with that front heading in!

[AWD]

I'll do a proper forecast tomorrow evening once the low forms and heads for the UK. But this is a broad brush guide as to where I'm at with my thoughts currently, based on the 12z model data;

Areas in red are likely to see gusts widely in excess of 70mph with many places also seeing 80mph gusts, especially nearer the coast you are. I also think, on a more isolated nature, a few 90mph localised gusts are possible here.

Areas in orange are likely to see gusts widely in excess of 60mph with some places recording gusts of 70mph. An isolated gust or two in prone locations such as Bristol Channel coasts, of 80mph is also possible.

The area in green are likely to see gusts in excess of 50mph with some 60mph gusts also possible in favoured locations, such as high ground etc.

Bear in mind, with wind, tropographic and local nuances come into play a lot, so a lot will also depend on your local environment. As I said, this will be updated tomorrow evening to a more detailed standard hopefully.

[karlos1983]

Oh wow... People on Facebook... Make me mad... In a nerdy sense

Someone was saying about 90mph winds being forecast, and someone else said something about a hurricane... I'm sat here like; that's what happens if sensationalist headlines are put out!

Oh I've avoided Facebook, this is the only  place I can share my passion with people without getting sarcastic comments. 

 

And usually if I warn anyone on facebook, it all goes the way of the pear and I look foolish, won't be doing that this winter!!

[Guest William Grimsley]

in the meantime, the old radar is looking lively out west with that front heading in!

Yeah, the showers do look intense with some thunder thrown in!

[Sungirl]

Oh I've avoided Facebook, this is the only  place I can share my passion with people without getting sarcastic comments. 

 

And usually if I warn anyone on facebook, it all goes the way of the pear and I look foolish, won't be doing that this winter!!

 

I am laughed at at work when I give out weather warnings so I empathise!  Our team has grown in the last year which, no doubt, means more hoots of laughter in the office about my weather ramblings!

[Polar Bear]

http://metro.co.uk/2013/10/26/stay-inside-public-warned-as-overwhelming-storm-to-hit-england-and-wales-at-worst-time-possible-4161864/

Metro being sensible unlike other tabloids...

[kaz]

Oh wow... People on Facebook... Make me mad... In a nerdy sense

Someone was saying about 90mph winds being forecast, and someone else said something about a hurricane... I'm sat here like; that's what happens if sensationalist headlines are put out!

Hi I have to say that speaking to people around North Devon they feel we will be on the shelted side so are not worried at all. They also go on to say that North Devon is never mentioned they just talk of Devon as a whole think they forget we are on to sepearate coasts North Cornwal North Somerset ETC.. I honestly dont know what to say, maybe they are right most of North Devon away from exposed hights and coasts wont even notice. So I suppose we will have to wait and see..

Any info would be greatly recieved..

kaz

[Polar Bear]

I am laughed at at work when I give out weather warnings so I empathise! Our team has grown in the last year which, no doubt, means more hoots of laughter in the office about my weather ramblings!

They used to with me but after I warned about the snow event they now ask me for the updates and what the weather will be!!

[karlos1983]

I am laughed at at work when I give out weather warnings so I empathise!  Our team has grown in the last year which, no doubt, means more hoots of laughter in the office about my weather ramblings!

 

well you can always rely on us lot!! 

[AWD]

Latest from Ian:

"#UKSTORM UPDATE 20:15 BST SAT: General theme remains as previously billed but expect slower arrival & clearance of worst weather. Rain from developing storm begins later Sunday. Some lull in winds before these increase markedly 00z Mon onward. Dramatic increase in winds into early hrs Mon; possibly peaking towards circa 6am/rush-hour. SW'rly initially, veering W/WNW later in AM. Strongest winds through by mid-morning, but remaining windy nonetheless thereafter. Currently expect strongest winds broadly S of line approx #Taunton - #Wincanton - A303 corridor: gusts 60-70+mph with potential for 80mph gusts coastal districts #Dorset. Similar strength in upland exposure of adjacent areas. For #Bristol, #B&NES, N #Wiltshire, N #Somerset: gusts 50-60mph more likely, perhaps decreasing N throughout Glos. However, these approximations are based on *current* f'cast: it's a very developmental situation; stay tuned. Final cautionary note: in past 3 years, we've seen local trees felled by just 45-50mph gusts. Please treat Amber Warning seriously."

Edited October 26, 2013 by AWD

[galacticwarrior]

Absolutely!  We are in the zone.  I need to go and secure my garden furniture and anything else that may be whipped up as a missile.  I have a huge tree opposite me with quite a few dead branches so I fear for it's strength now. 

 

The fact that the trees still have most of their leaves is a huge problem as the wind doesn't whip through them like when the leaves have dropped.

 

Sorry, not meaning to scare you!

 

 

Yes through early hours of Monday morning. Some strong wind gusts of 50-60mph for Oxon/Berks area. A lot of heavy rain aswell which will add further woe with our area seeing a lot of rain in the last few weeks after a mostly dry settled summer.

 

 

My guess is that my location is likely to receive 40mph to 50mph gusts at tops. Having said that, I am in a valley and I very rarely receive winds above 40mph. Winds above 40mph however, are potentially life-threatening. If you are in a vulnerable location, i.e. prone to windy spells from experience, my advice is to stay indoors and wait to see what Monday morning brings.

 

Thanks guys, I'll try and make sure I keep safe by sleeping downstairs, and I guess if those huge trees fall down they'll fall down on the car which keeps on coming back "for sale" every 2 days

That'll teach the dude a lesson for trying to sell cars on public grass!

[karlos1983]

blimey, quite a fewupdates just popped up from Ian F on Twitter, would seem quite a serious storm bearing down on us Dorset coastal folk! as well as most of the region, especially those on exposed coastal fringes!

[Guest William Grimsley]

A squall line just passed through, here. High Wind Gust Today: 35 mph 20:11 High Rainfall Rate Today: 55.2 mm/hr 20:35.

[gottolovethisweather]

Yeah, the showers do look intense with some thunder thrown in!

 

I can't see any lightning strikes showing up on the radar currently but there's a decent squall line feature heading into parts of Bristol, Gloucester and Wells as I type.  That will pep the winds up for a brief period.

[Mark Parsons]

It's pretty windy out there tonight , dread to think what it's going to be like come tomorrow night here on Portland ! Worrying !

Well you should be used to it there!!

[Lyn-M]

Heading this way, William!

[khodds]

Squall just hitting us now...

[AWD]

It's blowing enough of an hoolie out there now and this is nothing compared to Monday morning.

Heavy rain here too. Very squally out.