South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[Andy Bown]

24mm since midnight? I've only managed 8.8mm although the radar accumulation map seems to think it's more like 15mm. 

I have a manual rain gauge near ground level as well as the self-tipping one in my station, they're both exactly the same, local stations within 20 miles show similar totals within a mm so i'm not sure how that accumulation map works lol

 

Another mild day at 16C here, blustery in the strong wind though.

No that included yesterday's.

[AWD]

Latest from Ian;

"Continuation of a wet-dry story today; some drier, brighter but windy weather this afternoon but lines of heavy showers this evening moving NE with potential 10-15mm p/hr; poss thundery. Some v squally winds with these, but a higher threat down on S Coast. Showers fade Weds AM; then dry/drier Weds-Thurs before more rain overnight into Fri. SAT looks decent enough albeit breezy ahead of further showery, windy weather developing SUN. This precedes v uncertain cyclonic development through into MON.

Edited October 22, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest from Ian;

"Continuation of a wet-dry story today; some drier, brighter but windy weather this afternoon but lines of heavy showers this evening moving NE with potential 10-15mm p/hr; poss thundery. Some v squally winds with these, but a higher threat down on S Coast. Showers fade Weds AM; then dry/drier Weds-Thurs before more rain overnight into Fri. SAT looks decent enough albeit breezy ahead of further showery, windy weather developing SUN. This precedes v uncertain cyclonic development through into MON.

 

Got to agree with most of that I guess but am rather surprised at the number of possible drier interludes, I wouldn't be so confident in this aspect despite all their access to various model guidance.

 

But then again, what do I know.

Edited October 22, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Got to agree with most of that I guess but am rather surprised at the number of possible drier interludes, I wouldn't be so confident in this aspect despite all their access to various model guidance.

But then again, what do I know.

Small ridge of pressure briefly nudges in on Weds/Thurs whilst we undergo a change in wind direction from our current Southerly/South Westerly mild airmass to the forecast westerly, more average airmass. Hardly noticeable on the NWP but it's there.

Into the weekend and start of next week it's back to square one again with rain, wind and showers. This time in a relatively cooler airmass (compared to recently).

[Coast]

 

Cornwall faces week-long deluge as weather warning issued

 

Strong winds and torrential rain will continue to batter Cornwall for most of this week, the Met Office has warned. The Exeter-based weather agency has issued a yellow weather warning, urging people to be aware, for today, Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain is expected to hit this morning, bringing the risk of some localised flooding. The MET Office’s chief forecaster said: “Periods of heavy rain will continue to affect many south western parts of the UK during Tuesday, bringing a risk of minor disruption due to river and surface water flooding.â€

 

http://www.cornishguardian.co.uk/Cornwall-faces-week-long-deluge-weather-warning/story-19968763-detail/story.html#ixzz2iRoxISa5 

 

 

 

[Andy Bown]

Got to agree with most of that I guess but am rather surprised at the number of possible drier interludes, I wouldn't be so confident in this aspect despite all their access to various model guidance.

 

But then again, what do I know.

 

 

Small ridge of pressure briefly nudges in on Weds/Thurs whilst we undergo a change in wind direction from our current Southerly/South Westerly mild airmass to the forecast westerly, more average airmass. Hardly noticeable on the NWP but it's there.

Into the weekend and start of next week it's back to square one again with rain, wind and showers. This time in a relatively cooler airmass (compared to recently).

I too have reservations about drier weather, the Met Office fax Charts show a Warm Front over the South by 12.00 Thursday which I can't see being a dry one!

 

More fast moving lines of showers across Somerset and edging into Wiltshire now with some likely potent downpours amongst them.

[Gibby]

Could be a very turbulent night for Southern England as conditions are primed for widespread deep convection and squally winds and to enhance things more a deep trough will pass in the early hours. Many places will probably see at least distant lightning and probably more for a few. It is also conceivable that an isolated waterspout or small tornado could affect Southern Coastal Counties East of Dorset through the night giving the risk of localised damage.

[AWD]

A couple of sferics recorded around the Yeovil area currently.

Radar starting to sprout into life from all directions now.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Could be a very turbulent night for Southern England as conditions are primed for widespread deep convection and squally winds and to enhance things more a deep trough will pass in the early hours. Many places will probably see at least distant lightning and probably more for a few. It is also conceivable that an isolated waterspout or small tornado could affect Southern Coastal Counties East of Dorset through the night giving the risk of localised damage.

Why does this have to happen on a school night?

[Gibby]

Why does this have to happen on a school night?

I can remember many a sleepless night weather watching when I was a schoolboy. My parents used to think I was crazy.

[A.J]

I can remember many a sleepless night  when I was a schoolboy. My parents used to think I was crazy.

depending of course, on what exactly it was that you were doing!    .....sorry resist cropping your post Gibby...lol

[ARTDEMOLE]

Rain again..15.9c.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I can remember many a sleepless night weather watching when I was a schoolboy. My parents used to think I was crazy.

Same here, especially when I was ill when we had a big thunderstorm the other weekend.

[Sainsbo]

Some extreme looking models currently coming out for the start of next week it seems, I guess we will have to wait a few days to see if the forecast has changed.

 

17C today, and rain on and off, with 6.4mm for the day so far.

[Gibby]

I'm currently looking at some very potent thunderstorms with potential enough for flash floods, currently lying between Weymouth and Bournemouth moving due North and another band lying North to South through Lyme Bay destined for Bridport, Weymouth, Yeovil, Wincanton, Shaftesbury and points further North through East Somerset and West Wiltshire in the coming hours. Could be interesting. 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Gibby

[Guest William Grimsley]

All the activity seems to be going to the E and NE, at the moment. I hope something does come, at least another heavy downpour.

[DanDorsetUK]

WOAH WHAT A STORM HERE IN BOURNEMOUTH!!!

[Dorsetbred]

Lightning to the east of me, thunder to the west of me...

Here I am stuck in the middle with no hailstones to chew....

[124alex]

Rain here.. but no thunder as of yet!

Edited October 22, 2013 by 124alex

[Blimey]

seems right over Verwood atm

[lightningsprite]

Therewas a massive crack of thunder here in the new forest a few minutes ago...our  lights went out...but the rumbling seems to be tracking close but west of us atm...I  guess i  should head off down to the sea....

[Gibby]

Yes looks like I have got the trajectory of these storms slightly wrong as it now looks like Wiltshire and Gloucestershire are most at risk for the time being. Very confusing with surface winds due South and upper winds SSW.

[sunsetter]

Storm passed through here around 6pm but not directly overhead, plenty of lightning and distant thunder and heavy downpour. Looking at the radar we are in for a noisy night with plenty of electrical activity heading up from the channel.

[Andy Bown]

Yes looks like I have got the trajectory of these storms slightly wrong as it now looks like Wiltshire and Gloucestershire are most at risk for the time being. Very confusing with surface winds due South and upper winds SSW.

The wind has been fascinating all afternoon. I've been working in Westbury and to begin with the clouds were moving W-E with lines of fast moving showers just missing the town. It then became mostly sunny (shock horror!) for about 90 minutes with the wind backing to the SW then S which ushered in low Stratocumulus and then an advancement of anvils atop several CBs which raced in from the S/SW.

 

Somehow I got my work area done before the downpours but the dusk sky was a sight to behold, I really did expect lightning but it seems that's stayed 25 miles South around Salisbury.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I've had my whinge about darn Autumnal mild mush and rain in the status updates and then, what do you know it's THUNDERING.  

 

Three to four claps as I type this and some possible rotation noted within the cell before dusk ascended. Descended? whatever, I'm a happy chappie.

Edited October 22, 2013 by gottolovethisweather