Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

No change in the GEFS 12Z mean, still showing depressingly dull HP dominated weather beyond the hills and far far away.

[Dancerwithwings]

 

 

You'll find it hard to find the odd one out !!! With the sluggish jet atm now't is set in stone, That HP is all over the place.

[Captain Shortwave]

Naw I don't think we will. We are all eager to get off. Could you actually explain why its beneficial??

Look at the heights developing over Iceland/Greenland in that chart, something to be encouraged about if you like cold weather.

Warmer that average SSTs in the north Atlantic - there is a tenuous link to higher that average heights during the winter

Snowcover in Siberia - Kind of self explanatory which means the build up of more sustained cold over in Russia and Siberia is going at a much quicker pace that usual and a lot quicker than last year. Again there are some potential links between this and the increased chance of high latitude blocking during the winter.

Look at Steve Murr's post this morning, he thinks something will be coming later in the month. And I agree with him, I think if the jet remains slow and sluggish I think a cold spell could set up in a couple of weeks time.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Look at the heights developing over Iceland/Greenland in that chart, something to be encouraged about if you like cold weather.

Warmer that average SSTs in the north Atlantic - there is a tenuous link to higher that average heights during the winter

Snowcover in Siberia - Kind of self explanatory which means the build up of more sustained cold over in Russia and Siberia is going at a much quicker pace that usual and a lot quicker than last year. Again there are some potential links between this and the increased chance of high latitude blocking during the winter.

Look t Steve Murr's post this morning, he things something will be coming later in the month. And I agree with him

 

His pay check?, or the HP in a different position 

[Captain Shortwave]

His pay check?, or the HP in a different position 

Like a coin toss, with these blocking highs developing near or over us. We can't keep landing warm forever. One day we will end up on the cold side of the block.

Hopefully this will come when we have the cold out to the east and north east to deliver the goods.

 

No change in the GEFS 12Z mean, still showing depressingly dull HP dominated weather beyond the hills and far far away.

Well you could, but you can't see the hills, they are covered in mist and cloud 

Edited October 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

It's better we get this benign anticyclonic weather now than in november and december, and this is the best time because SST's are still high and the sun still has some strength and the airmass across the near continent is very warm..in nov/dec this would be anticyclonic gloom in all respects.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Frosty.

[Cloud 10]

Interesting UKMO at 144 hrs as mentioned further up the page which suggests a cold plunge at least into scandi further down the line,and certainly a very different polar profile compared to GFS for the same timeframe.

 

UKMO..   GFS..

 

 

 

Unfortunately the UMKO has a habit of being a bit pants in its +144 predictions sometimes,so it will be interesting to see what the ECM serves up this evening.

[johnholmes]

An interesting exercise is to play the 12z data on Net Wx Extra with the zero isotherm out to T+384. Of course it may well be wrong but I would imagine it is rare to see, apart from a shortish spell over Scotland, with the zero isotherm at 3000m or more. Not many years that one would see that over a 15-16 day period in October?

Edited October 3, 2013 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

ECM looking steady so far

 

Edited October 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mark Neal.]

One thing for sure is a consistency in the models of a  high to influence our weather through the weekend and into next weekend, some atlantic fronts sweeping past the NW to begin with, but then soon joining the settled party. Warm temperatures for the time of year and exceptionally to see the mild uppers for a substantial amount of time over our shores. Interesting that a big wallop of  high pressure to our East  is building and could see blocking persist as we go through October, but not necessarily us staying settled with trough being a fly in oitment to our NW as runs go on. 

 

I think the comments on it lasting to November, are premature but for now a settled, benign pattern of weather is to take over our weather for the next 7-10 days! Cloudy at times, but with a SE flow at times the cloud should hopefully break up and feeling warm! 

Edited October 3, 2013 by Mark N

[Summer Sun]

T168 sees the high remaining in control pretty much identical to the 00z run

 

 

t192 shows no change from above

Edited October 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ICETAB]

I would be happy with the ECM if it was mid November. I can see that high pressure retrogressing to the NE further down the line.

[Captain Shortwave]

Stunning chart

 

 

 

That will do nicely

Edited October 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

T168 sees the high remaining in control pretty much identical to the 00z run

 

 

 

Yes,high pressure well in control over the UK same as 00z, which is amazing as there are some big changes elsewhere!

 

00z..  12z..

[Summer Sun]

t192 and t216 both stay settled with high pressure dominating along with +10 uppers

 

 

t240 ends ECM on a settled and warm note

Edited October 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12Z mean is incredible, superb alignment and placement of the anticyclone next week and beyond which allows warm air easy access into the uk, really this is indian summer conditions shown on this run, much warmer than the 6z mean. I mentioned earlier that I thought the block could hold until november, when you look at the 12z mean you can see how it could persist until very late in october because there is nothing upstream that wants to take over, benign, warm and sunny is on the way. 

[joggs]

As well as the high been fantastically placed for dry,warm/mild conditions eurasia and the east cool down nicely on the east side of the high,winners all around imo!.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 3rd 2013.

 

All models show the warm SE flow of recent days moving away NE at the expense of fresher SW winds and rising pressure from tomorrow. The locally heavy rain of today is now moving away steadily North while a second pulse moves North and East across the South of the UK overnight with some squally and thundery downpours possible for a time. By morning fresher and clearer air will move into the South from the SW and this will extend further North over tomorrow and the weekend with sunny spells by day but mist and fog problems developing at night across the South. Further North the weather will stay a little breezier and cloudier with occasional rain in the far North and NW.

 

GFS then shows High pressure building over all areas next week with some fine and warm weather with some mist and fog at night, slow to clear in the mornings which will be rather cooler than of late. Any sunshine through the days though will make it feel pleasantly warm in light winds. Later in the week the High slips away across Europe with Low pressure eventually feeding it's way in from the West with breezier and cooler conditions with rain at times.

 

UKMO closes it's 12 noon output with a transfer of the main High pressure cell from the SE of Europe to the NE Atlantic with slack winds over the UK with the risk of extensive mist, fog and low cloud becoming a stubborn beast to clear in otherwise fine and dry conditions with some sunshine.

 

GEM tonight holds High pressure close to Southern England at the start of next week before it transfers to be to the East of the UK later next week and weekend with a warm Southerly bringing warm and settled conditions for most areas of the UK with the extreme West and NW gradually becoming more cloudy with the chance of a little rain in places.

 

NAVGEM has High pressure further South with more Atlantic winds for a larger slice of the UK at the weekend and start to next week. This would mean less in the way of mist and fog due to more breeze and the cloud and rain shown by other output in the far North would extend further South by NAVGEM to some Central areas too. Temperatures would be close to or somewhat above average.

 

ECM tonight shows High pressure developing over the UK next week before moving slowly off shore later to the East. there will be a lot of dry and fine weather for all areas with mist and fog problems night and morning but if the sun is allowed to break through the gloom then warm afternoons would be likely. There seems little overall major changes likely to take place in the immediate days following the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles again show a mild set tonight, especially for Southern Britain with probably around 80% of the members going for a milder than average run. In the North there is a lot of spread between members though from the midway point with rainfall fairly limited in amount with plenty of dry weather too especially but not exclusively in the South.

 

The Jet Stream has recently weakened to the South of the UK and is currently drifting steadily Northwards over the UK. A new arm then develops to the NW of the UK moving NE in response to High pressure ridging up towards Southern Britain over the weekend.

 

In Summary tonight another anticyclonic spell of weather is on the way. After a reasonable weekend next week looks fine and warm with mist and fog the only significant problems which could spoil the weather through the week, especially by day as it could be slow to clear. Temperatures look like staying on the warm side of average though nights could be quite cool at times.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Stunning chart

 

 

 

That will do nicely

Loving this extended warmth, but what I like even more, is that real plunge of freezing air into Eastern Europe. Could well play a big part in cooling the continent right down ready for winter

[MR EXTREMES]

t192 and t216 both stay settled with high pressure dominating along with +10 uppers

 

 

t240 ends ECM on a settled and warm note

Sorry this really is garden path stuff t240 how many times has any model that goes this far out been correct id like to see so realistic posts looking at possibilities of different weather types and im afraid at t240hrs very unlikely but as ive said before im happy to eat humble pie.

[Frosty.]

These are astonishing charts for the run up to mid october from tonight's Ecm 12z op run, we have had 2 EPIC runs this evening, the Gefs 12z mean and now this, if either are anywhere close, we will have indian summer conditions becoming established next week which could then persist until beyond mid month with one of the most prolonged warm, dry & sunniest october spells for a long while.

[Xihuitl]

You can't ask for much better than this - it's like payback time for the stunted Spring. 

 

 

Wow.  A Widow's Peak.  And you know what that means.  If not, here's what it usually indicates.

[Captain Shortwave]

Sorry this really is garden path stuff t240 how many times has any model that goes this far out been correct id like to see so realistic posts looking at possibilities of different weather types and im afraid at t240hrs very unlikely but as ive said before im happy to eat humble pie.

Well the op is well backed by it's own assembles, stunning day 10 mean this

1030mb high centred over Denmark, it doesn't get much better than that for synoptics

Edited October 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[smithyweather]

These are astonishing charts for the run up to mid october from tonight's Ecm 12z op run, we have had 2 EPIC runs this evening, the Gefs 12z mean and now this, if either are anywhere close, we will have indian summer conditions becoming established next week which could then persist until beyond mid month with one of the most prolonged warm, dry & sunniest october spells for a long while.

 

Again I don't know what the excitement is because we all know this is going to be cloudy and 18c. We cannot sunbathe in that and we certainly cannot swim in the ocean because it is far too cold. 

 

So really it is not good. 

Edited October 3, 2013 by smithyweather

[damianslaw]

Not much to comment on, other than we are about to enter another lengthy dry settled mild spell for the time of year - though it could be another cloudy one. All charts out to next weekend show a continuation of high pressure on the scene with the jetstream tracking well to the NW and the polar vortex locked in limbo on the other side of the pole - you don't get much more of a 'blocked' outlook than this.

 

Just a feeling but i wouldn't be surprised to see the current spell suddenly replaced by something decidely much colder later on in the month provided the atlantic remains in its ineffective state and we continue to see all the energy in the PV on the other side of the Pole. The current outlook would be a winter cold lovers dream if this was February.