Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[MPG]

Seems to be a lot of worried people regarding the lack of 'cold' output and a lot of happy people regarding the 'mild' outlook.

 

For those looking for another 2010, please remember the November started very very mild with some temp records being broken. It hit 20 degrees in Newcastle until in the last week of the month when that NE kicked in.

 

Plenty of time.

Edited October 16, 2013 by MPG

[Jason T]

Eh what does this mean?

 

 

I think he is referring to the jet being blocked, Strong Northern Blocking and the cold flushing through the UK. 

[smithyweather]

oh, I asked because it was very hard to work out what he was talking about when he started going on about a 'cusp of a crosslink' and a 'variance of the stream evolutionary'

Seems to be a lot of worried people regarding the lack of 'cold' output and a lot of happy people regarding the 'mild' outlook.

 

For those looking for another 2010, please remember the November started very very mild with some temp records being broken. It hit 20 degrees in Newcastle until in the last week of the month when that NE kicked in.

 

Plenty of time.

What caused the airstream change from mild to cold in 2010? I would like to look out for early signs of a change when studying the GFS. 

Edited October 16, 2013 by smithyweather

[tight isobar]

oh, I asked because it was very hard to work out what he was talking about when he started going on about a 'cusp of a crosslink' and a 'variance of the stream evolutionary'What caused the airstream change from mild to cold in 2010? I would like to look out for early signs of a change when studying the GFS.

. Perhaps!? The GFS in my op is a wonder,in overall trend LR,but strangely wobbles uncontrolled with in time reliable...more so when established eventual patterns are emerging!!!!

[johnholmes]

This sort of modeled scenarios, can indeed be interpreted, as mirror opp, actualy! With the jet being modeled as so unpredictable at the almost cusp of crosslink,via autumn through early winter.such variance of the stream over evolutionary, buckling north/ south over evolve, is most certain (imo), of either a mild lovers dream or indeed a cold fans, in the evolving) win win.by months end I,ll stick my neck out and project dramatic viewing, and most likely in end fruition, for one side or other....

 

 

It would help most of us on here if you wrote in plain English rather than using words which most of us are not too clear what they mean-please?

[johnholmes]

It's his opinion John, surely he is entitled to it and to voice it, whether it's what most want to hear or not; indeed labelling a Winter forecast 'silly' in mid October could be construed as being equally silly.  Maybe it's not in the right thread, but by your own admission no one can accurately forecast that far ahead, making every sudmission in the Winter Forecast thread 'silly' by that measure. Perhaps the best time to judge it and all other winter forecasts will be next Feb 28th, not today.

 

I stand by what I said-no one and I mean no one can give any forecast of what the weather is going to do this winter with any certainty, that is why writing off winter(I assume he meant it being cold and snowy) is in my view a silly remark. Of course he is entitled to his veiw but it would help if these one liners gave a more credible post with data to back up their comment, or am I alone in this view?

[Frosty.]

I don't think flooding will occur or at least be a widespread problem because fronts should move through normally and not stall, however, we are on the cusp of the most sustained increasingly aggresive atlantic onslaught of the autumn so far which could easily persist well into november. The mildness levels will ebb and flow but mostly flow but I think temperatures will slide closer to average beyond next week with the airflow changing from either a warm s'ly from spain or more of a sw'ly from the azores to more of an atlantic oceanic broadly westerly flow by the time the clocks go back. : - )

No John, you are not alone with your views.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Timmytour]

Just as other notable winters have proved that a blowtorch for Siberia/Scandinavia around the beginning of Nov doesn't end hopes of a decent winter, they also prove that nothing can be ruled out in a shorter timeframe.  Revisiting the image I posted earlier and adding to it..

5th November 1962

19th November 1962

Edited October 16, 2013 by Timmytour

[Tom Jarvis]

Deep fi but another motherly on the 18z on phone so cannot show chart. It is a trend to watch though as the 12z had one as well. Also Siberia getting cold again

Edited October 16, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[Richie V]

My waffle on this thread im sure is seen as weak cus I never back up my posts with charts. But when I threaten that the atlantic onslaught is coming i'm greeted with comments like "sorry to burst your bubble" such and such. For the few who saw my warnings of this as un substantiated un-backed up nonsense, whos laughing now!?.... Hows that for an off topic self ego stroaking post

Anyone seen my coat?

[Timmytour]

I think the way the GFS is going, the newsworthy weather for the end of the month will concern floods on the near continent.

I wonder if it's hinting at an early link up between the Azores high and the Greenland high?

[Panayiotis]

Anyway, the 18z ensembles for my area is remaining unsettled with average temperatures up until the end of the month. May be a quieter spell of weather to come at the start of November?

[Paul]

Locking this thread, new thread open:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/