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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


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A new month so it seems a good time to open a new thread to talk about the afternoon's model runs due shortly.

 

It looks like the mild and relatively benign Autumn conditions will continue well into this month with the 00z means showing blocking high pressure around W.Europe into Scandinavia with any Atlantic lows being held at bay out to the west and north for the time being.

The UK remains on the warm side of the pattern with winds coming mainly from the south or south west. 

 

The 12z runs out soon to see if signs of a change start to show up or will the Atlantic jet continue to remain fairly weak and to the north of the UK for the foreseeable ?

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Interesting, the MetO hinting this settled period slated for the weekend and into Monday may be short-lived. Certainly, it paints an unsettled picture for the North West, which is against the pattern from this mornings ECM which saw the NW join in with higher pressure and cloud breaks into the middle of the week... Tonights ECM 12z will be interesting to see.

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Yes the further south and east the more likely the dry and more settled conditions will hold, with the core of the heights over the continent, i would think draztik.

 

We can only give an overall and rather general view based on those means when talking about next week but trailing fronts around the top of the high are always likely to affect the far north and west of the UK at times.

Edited by phil nw.
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12z runs will be very interesting since GEFS and ECM ens mean are both showing an increasingly warm and settled outlook thanks to a developing and large euro high which could hold the very autumnal weather to the far northwest of the uk for the foreseeable future, thus extending the generally warm and benign pattern into the second half of the month, at least for the south and east. :-)

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Looking like a very wet day tomorrow with Heavy Rain moving up from the South, Rain also affecting areas to the NW aswell. GFS 12z shows this.. 

looks nasty, the metoffice have warnings out for heavy/thundery rain on Thursday, I'm actually quite excited.

GFS looks like finally building pressure like the Euro models.

To be honest the Metoffice's outlooks have been pretty poor with the "unsettled" weather appearing to be put back a day on every output recently. A few days ago there was no settled weather forecast whatsoever. Now it looks like potentially a week long spell for the south east, less the further north and west you go. This is referring to beyond the end of this week.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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looks nasty, the metoffice have warnings out for heavy/thundery rain on Thursday, I'm actually quite excited.

GFS looks like finally building pressure like the Euro models.

To be honest the Metoffice's outlooks have been pretty poor with the "unsettled" weather appearing to be put back a day on every output recently. A few days ago there was no settled weather forecast whatsoever. Now it looks like potentially a week long spell for the south east, less the further north and west you go.

 

Looks very nasty with current output some areas could see heavy thundery rain for several hours if not longer especially to the SW, hence Met Office warnings out in force. I guess those who hate this weather we have been experiencing as it ain't exciting may be interesting in the coming 24hrs.

 

Yes was supposedly going to be a very wet and increasingly unsettled week for all, i think some model output and Met Office were saying by midweek all areas unsettled, tomorrow sees that band head Northwards, but could stay dry in the Far East/SE.?

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I get what Damians Law was saying the other day about October being a boring month, and the associated Southwesterly airmass clagging up the skies.  Everything very benign, the regulars on the Regional Thread are also bemoaning the lack of active weather! The Hurricane season has forgot to start, and currently is serving up Tropical Storm Jerry, who frankly you could be impolite about given it's ridiculous progression from wave to depression to storm.

 

At last look the MJO had faded in strength with the UKMO run the most progressive of the models moving things into a low amplitude phase 7, GWO is flat lined at the orbit with little sign of any resurgent Jetstream action aside from the odd Pacific pulse.

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Don't go looking for a further update at present however, bit of a nuisance !!

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Grabbed this composite earlier today, prior to everyone not coming into work.. MJO dates where for October low amplitude Phase 6 and 7, similar to the suggested UKMO ensemble.

 

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Very progressive with the ridging over and North of the UK by Phase 7. Maybe too much but time will tell..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by lorenzo
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Don't go looking for a further update at present however, bit of a nuisance !!

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that is one to save for the archives, 17 years ago since it happened, long before most of us became weather addicts on the web!

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Sensational GFS 12z operational run this evening, high pressure domination from the weekend onwards really taking complete control and swatting the lows further west and north as if they were an annoying fly, the gfs becomes very blocked from the uk and further east with atlantic lows hitting a brick wall to the west or southwest of the uk..stunning outlook, increasingly settled with sunny spells and becoming warmer, this is a great run, even an attempted breakdown from the southwest at T+288 hours is sent packing with high pressure building again..classic.Posted Image

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Amazingly, even by T+384 hours (17th October) the block is still holding the atlantic back with the warm sw'ly winds continuing, the atlantic energy just keeps running out of steam as it approaches the block...what an EPIC run.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Its only epic if you want a contiuation of cloud and very mild temps. You see I wouldn't mind the high pressure if it brought sunshine and frosts, but thats not going to happen.

Edited by smithyweather
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Can't really complain about the GFS run, 

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Gets a continental flow in pretty quickly so hopefully clearer, drier air should push up on south easterly winds. Not particularly warm, but pleasant enough.

 

And yet a couple of posts below say GFS getting warmer, talk about confusing lol. I agree with you this HP in that position would bring cooler daytime temps than we have now. Still feeling pleasant though

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Can't really complain about the GFS run, 

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Gets a continental flow in pretty quickly so hopefully clearer, drier air should push up on south easterly winds. Not particularly warm, but pleasant enough.

 

17c seems pretty warm to me for October.

Edited by smithyweather
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UPGRADE ALERT..Tonight's UKMO 12z looks better than last night, and last night's was very good. I think the chances of a settled and warm outlook are continuing to gain significant support, it looks like high pressure will dominate from saturday onwards across most of the uk and europe with warm sunny periods, any unsettled weather only brushing across nw scotland.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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but it wont be that warm now we in early October. over the last few GFS runs it has got the night times being quite cold with even frost. i still think a northerly wind not out off the question yet all it needs is the high to nudge further north then bingo we have our first cold blast. anyway looks like high presage for the time being with even frost at night in some areas.

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UPGRADE ALERT..Tonight's UKMO 12z looks better than last night, and last night's was very good. I think the chances of a settled and warm outlook are continuing to gain significant support, it looks like high pressure will dominate from saturday onwards across most of the uk and europe with warm sunny periods, any unsettled weather only brushing across nw scotland.Posted Image

 

Brilliant UKMO this could be a rather lengthy settled spell regardless of the meto text updates

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Brilliant UKMO this could be a rather lengthy settled spell regardless of the meto text updates

I agree Gavin, there seems to be a higher degree of uncertainty from the met office about a breakdown next week, may spread southeastwards doesn't sound very convincing to me, I think the brakes have been slammed on and a more settled and warm outlook is looking more likely than yesterday even..support is growing.Posted Image

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Another UPGRADE..The GEFS 12z mean looks even more settled than the 6z and also better than the 12z last night, high pressure doesn't just hold it's ground, it takes ground and forces the lows further away from the uk, eventually the anticyclone slowly drifts further east and we continue to have a warm southerly sourced airflow..this is looking like a very pleasant spell on the way from saturday onwards towards mid month at least, no sign of a breakdown here, just a gentle erosion of the fine weather across the far northwest as time goes on.Posted Image

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Very good from ECM again increasing confidence now for another period of high pressure dominating our weather

 

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Uppers are +10 quite widely

 

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As that high starts to break a new one develops

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Another UPGRADE..The GEFS 12z mean looks even more settled than the 6z and also better than the 12z last night, high pressure doesn't just hold it's ground, it takes ground and forces the lows further away from the uk, eventually the anticyclone slowly drifts further east and we continue to have a warm southerly sourced airflow..this is looking like a very pleasant spell on the way from saturday onwards towards mid month at least, no sign of a breakdown here, just a gentle erosion of the fine weather across the far northwest as time goes on.Posted Image

 

But what is so good about 18c and cloud in mid-October? Isn't about time we have some more autumnal weather???

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But what is so good about 18c and cloud in mid-October? Isn't about time we have some more autumnal weather???

 

we've got the second half of October, November, December, January, February and possibly march

 

Something more unsettled / cooler is bound to arrive at some point but now those seeking cooler weather need to have a bit of patience

 

Any way ECM ends settled but cooler which could allow fog to  develop overnight and maybe some frosts in sheltered parts

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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