Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Skyraker]

Is there any kind of ignore feature on here (not you Chris)?

 

As much as it's great for your input on milder uppers SS, it would be helpful to any newcomers to the thread on details of what surface weather is likely to accompany these charts you post. 

 

With the trough to our W/SW influencing our weather for the foreseeable, the milder temps will somewhat feel tampered by any wind and rain... perhaps feeling a bit better if any sunshine peeks through, I'll give you that.

[bluearmy]

thats one hell of a sexy run for the NH from ecm. 

[Captain Shortwave]

MR, SS isn't controlling the model output or trolling, he's merely commenting on what it's showing. Until we lose that big fat euro high we will be stuck in no mans land if it's cold your after. Remember though it's the bigger picture which is more important and as long as those heights stay strong to our NE then it's only a matter of time before we see a far more favourable set up for cold, also it's only October.

Could be a lot of pain coming up. Mother natures owes us a 62/63 winter I think if it rains nearly non stop for the next 2 weeks 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, most areas become mild though the colder air shown by the minority across the North at times cannot be ignored

 

All models follow the same path as this morning with Low pressure over Eastern England continuing to spiral rain and showers West and South over Southern Britain for another 24 hours or so. Over NW Britain the weather will stay dry at least for another 48hrs or so before all models support a change to SW winds and rain on Wednesday as Low pressure over the Atlantic push troughs up from the SW. Through the latter stages of the week Wednesday's rain will have become lodged across the far North where conditions will be on the cold side while Thursdays sees scattered showers over England and Wales in pleasantly mild conditions. Friday sees more fronts move up from the SW with some heavy rain and strong winds for most parts of the UK to end the week.

 

GFS then shows a steady decline in uppers through next weekend and the following week as Low pressure sources itself from more Northerly latitudes and heads their way towards the UK to set up a potentially stormy period in 10 days or so with gale or severe gales and heavy rain, especially across the South and West.

 

UKMO tonight shows an unstable SW flow across the UK next weekend with rain at times in many places while temperatures stay well up to average if not above, especially in the South. The far North may see less in the way of rain but also lower temperatures in an East or SE breeze.

 

GEM goes for engagement of the colder air to the North later this week and could be deemed to be an exception to the group text at the beginning of this report. It spreads the chill down across many areas to reach all but Southern England by Saturday before it is forced North again through the weekend and the following week as Low pressure over the Atlantic pushes milder South and SW winds across all but the far North with plenty of rain at times.

 

NAVGEM shows Low pressure moving into the UK in a weeks time following several days of wet and windy weather. This theme would continue next weekend with gain the far North probably seeing the least rain and less mild temperatures.

 

ECM tonight shows Low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic sending repeated bands of rain ad showers NE across the UK decelerating across Scotland. Some areas could see a good deal of rain especially over South and West facing hills and slopes as temperatures stay above average for most away from Northern Scotland.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a fairly wet theme over the next few weeks. In the South the weather stays mild from most members with little divergence from average or above levels until the late days of the run while for more Northern locations things are far less clear cut with quite a few members showing some cooler options from later this week.

 

The Jet Stream shows a split flow developing currently with one arm well to the North with another arm traveling East across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain. the Northern arm weakens to insignificance by the end of the week while the Southern arm becomes the dominant player for some time to follow

 

In Summary the weather is set to become nationally unsettled with rain or showers at times throughout the output. Most areas look like staying mild and occasionally windy though the incursion of colder air shown by the minority tonight across the North at times cannot be ignored.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Polar Maritime]

thats one hell of a sexy run for the NH from ecm. 

 

It is, Where's Edward Frosty, ? 

 

Edited October 13, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Dancerwithwings]

and im sometimes irritated by ss post sorry mods cant buy into this its milder chart lets add the real detail please average is the right term.

Sorry.... I wouldn't want SS any other way!!! He's always reminding us that the mild or so called warmth is never to far away so just let him be,

 

Because when the cold and snow does hit the UK it will be even more sweeter

[bobbydog]

thats one hell of a sexy run for the NH from ecm. 

 

yep. that would bring plenty of snow for western russia and scandi. just what we need to build the snow advance index.

 

keep those "mild" charts coming gavin

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12Z mean shows a generally mild and unsettled outlook with spells of rain and strong winds interspersed by brighter & showery days with something of a nw-se split at times although in the week ahead, tuesday stands out as a fine day for most of the uk with sunny spells before rain, some heavy, spreads north & east through midweek, then a ridge to the southeast looks like bringing a spell of fine and rather warm weather to southern/se england later in the week with temps possibly reaching 19c but more likely in the 15-17c range depending on cloud cover, low teens celsius for northern england and n.ireland but only high single digits celsius for the northern half of scotland, temperatures struggle most across scotland compared to further south throughout and it's the north and west of the BI, especially the northwestern third of the uk which will bear the brunt of the very unsettled weather in the next few weeks. It does appear that a more active weather pattern is on the way, as per the met office update with most days and nights being on the mild side but sometimes offset by strong winds, mostly from a southwesterly quarter.

Edited October 13, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Just to clear things up before these personal digs get out of hand (which may I remind you are not tolerated by the mods in this thread)

 

I do post cold charts however there is very little in the way of cold in today's outputs so its near impossible to post anything else.

 

If you don't like my or anyone Else's posts for that matter all you have to do Is click your name and select manage ignore prefs

Edited October 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[simshady]

Those temp look fine by me...... for now. As long as the cold keeps hitting the right places in western Europe it can't be all bad.

[bluearmy]

It is, Where's Edward Frosty, ? 

 

 

 

if ed's around, i dont suppose that there has been any wave breaking in the strat over the past week or so ? the advance of the polar highs on that ecm run seem to have accelerated a fair bit ???

 

no worries about the mild conditions for nw europe. all courtesy of the residual euro heights which will hang around somewhat longer if conditions stay fair. it will bu**er off though and allow the atlantic trough across which would advect the cold south. no rush, still plenty of october to get through. any solution as per the 12z ecm op is not going to set the pattern for the next eight weeks but it does show a propensity for HLB to be quite strong.

[AWD]

The EC Det at 192 hours;

NAEFS at 192 hours;

500mb anomaly output;

All 3 pretty similiar in the longwave pattern for our part of the NH. Trough to the W/SW of the UK advecting the warmer air over Spain & France, less so as we reach the UK although still mild and possibly above average at times in the south. Heights over mainland central/southern Europe preventing the colder air over Scandi and north of the UK advecting any further south than what current NWP output shows. A forming vortex over Russia/Siberia and a weakening vortex with positive height anomalies over Greenland. The Jet Stream way south of the UK.

The UK in the threshold of the two air masses and as a result, likely to see a lot of frontal wave rainfall. Until heights receed in Europe, the progression east of the trough modelled to our west/south west will be limited, and therefore we will remain on the milder eastern flank of the trough rather than the possible colder western flank.

Edited October 13, 2013 by AWD

[Frosty.]

Totally agree with Gavin here, i'm sure paul will sort the culprits out.

[bobbydog]

Just to clear things up before these personal digs get out of hand (which may I remind you are nor tolerated by the mods in this thread)

 

I do post cold charts however there is very little in the way of cold in today's outputs so its near impossible to post anything else. If you don't like my or anyone Else's posts for that matter all you have to do Is click your name and select manage ignore prefs

 

we all have our preferences gav, most on here seem to prefer a colder winter (including myself) but not all. after all, you are showing october charts and they show 'milder' weather for the UK (in case anyone has forgotten, its autumn, so they will show mild at times)

if anyone noticed my previous post, your last posted charts are good news for winter watchers but thats not the part you were emphasising. so for anyone wishing to criticize,- don't.-  look at the charts and see the bigger picture.

 

post what you like gavin. light hearted mickey taking is fine. i do it myself, but personal digs are not fine

Edited October 13, 2013 by bobbydog

[summer blizzard]

Certainly looks to me like an exceptionally wet pattern coming up.

[phil nw.]

OK guys let's cut out the digs at members whose views that some of you may not like or agree with.

If they are supported by charts or data then they don.t deserve to be attacked.

Indeed one post that crossed the line has been deleted.

 

By all means post your own take on the models if you disagree with anything but let's keep things friendly.

 

Thanks all.

[draztik]

The accumulated rainfall totals from the ECM 12z op indicate higher totals for N.I., Wales and SW Scotland... autumn in full swing, seemingly.

 

[damianslaw]

Generally an unsettled outlook for the foreseeable future. As others have commented on, the longwave trough is coming unstuck as it tries to move into europe largely due to the strong heights over central/southern europe, alas the UK is primed for quite hefty amount of rain in the week ahead - proper autumnal weather, albeit rather mild away from Scotland, with no chance of fog and frost yet.. Unfortunately it also looks a very cloudy outlook apart from Tuesday, especially in western parts and a windy spell.

 

Looking further ahead, I wouldn't be surprised to see some tropical storm activity due to the very warm SST's between Africa and caribbean, it has been an unusually quiet year ahead. Ironically a more active push of energy from the atlantic would no doubt aid the trough in making inroads into central europe, against the current northern hemipshere base state, a much colder scenario would thus likely set in. I said yesterday keep an eye on developments to our NE, but also far to our SW, a sudden tropical storm development would phase with the longwave trough and no doubt explode into a vicious cyclonic spell with an arctic outbreak thereafter very likely.

 

One notable feature of the autumn so far has at least in these parts been its dryness, barring the shortlived wet spell mid september, we have seen little rain in the last 6 weeks, indeed October which can be a very wet month in the Lake District, so far has been dry.We've done very well these last few days, just far enough NW to escape the recent rain.. Indeed 2013 has been a preety dry year in these parts, in complete contrast to April-Decemner 2012 - so often mother nature seems to balance herself out.

[Mark Neal.]

The accumulated rainfall totals from the ECM 12z op indicate higher totals for N.I., Wales and SW Scotland... autumn in full swing, seemingly.

 

Interestingly it looks like after quite a while the Atlantic will storm back through this week, becoming progressively unsettled from the West. With those in the East prone to the driest weather. So more autumnal weather looking likely with bands of heavy rain moving eastweards across our shores with the jet moving south. 

 

Some great posts on here tonight with prospects into the future with regard to colder prospects to come, the Northern blocking showing is very noteworthy and the ECM run tonight has great potential, with Steve Murr and co going into much detail about how we could see benefits further down the line. 

 

Things moving along and changes afoot, but the blocking to the North continues to be a focal point, with Snowcover looking good to our NE! 

[legritter]

Evening fellow posters .iv just had a look at current charts having spent some time away from computer lately and the weeks ahead do look very interesting which is better than being stuck in a rut with a fat azores high .indeed i made a mistake tonight looking at last frame of GFS ,STAND BY YOUR BEDS a Dart board low is on its way .just got back from walk with the dog ,it certainly feels like mid winter out there at the moment .here we are already in mid autumn and at present all signs in outputs keeps this theme going with perhaps some lively autumn weather with cold air not that far away and mild air also in the picture ,certainly one to watch is the developement of high pressure to our north which if it developes could bring some high rainfall totals in the further outlook ,and perhaps GFS is starting to hint at this .i know many dont look at gfs far out but sometimes these forecasting modells flip and change and then bring things in closer at a later date ,are we in for a roller coaster ride this winter ,i personally think so .

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

if ed's around, i dont suppose that there has been any wave breaking in the strat over the past week or so ? the advance of the polar highs on that ecm run seem to have accelerated a fair bit ???

 

no worries about the mild conditions for nw europe. all courtesy of the residual euro heights which will hang around somewhat longer if conditions stay fair. it will bu**er off though and allow the atlantic trough across which would advect the cold south. no rush, still plenty of october to get through. any solution as per the 12z ecm op is not going to set the pattern for the next eight weeks but it does show a propensity for HLB to be quite strong.

I think a lot of info regarding the Stratosphere may be offline due to the US gov shutdown.  I went to look at a couple of sites and they were both down due to the problems across the pond. 

[Richie V]

Well, looking increasingly like i'll get my atlantic fix now. With a distinct lack of atlantic activity in the past 4 or so years, surely we're due something mental! BRING THE GALES I say, save all that blocking, prozac and razor blades for nearer xmas. After all, you get much deeper cold pooling in dec anyway.

Ric

[NorthernRab]

The accumulated rainfall totals from the ECM 12z op indicate higher totals for N.I., Wales and SW Scotland... autumn in full swing, seemingly.

 

 

Surely autumn in full swing would show above average rainfall for NW Scotland, rather than below average? To me, this doesn't say autumn in full swing, it says a relatively benign Atlantic. 

 

Certainly the positioning of pressure is somewhat favourable in such a setup and wouldn't follow a strong SW to NE flow.

Edited October 14, 2013 by NorthernRab

[MR EXTREMES]

look at this omg its like a ice age northern hemisphere not far from us at all incredible.

[SLEETY]

massive differences between ecm and gfs this morning,even in the early time-frame output.

 

One model is hopelessly wrong today