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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well again something of note at day 10, can it repeat it tomorrow will be the big question

Posted Image

If heights stay high near Greenland and the polar vortex remains over Northern Russia there is a very good chance of developing a big north/north easterly down the line.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS continues to show milder wetter weather moving in next week of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clearer spells it should feel quite pleasant given the wind will be coming from the south west

EDIT

UKMO shows this as well with warm moist air from the south west

Posted Image

It may look like the Atlantic low is going to dictate, but that normally happens when there is low pressure around Iceland driving the whole pattern. The chart shows the Atlantic energy going under a small block of heights near Iceland. The low isn't really going anywhere and looks like it might even slip SE (IMO). It's actually quite close to keeping an easterly flow over the UK. Absolutely definitely not zonal.
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Yes the ECM at 240hrs is synoptically beautiful and a good chart for the last week of October, but its what may happen after (it it did verify) which would grab my attention!

post-17320-0-60060200-1381431823_thumb.g

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Interesting ECM 12z,and is perfectly plausible with all that cold air stacked onto "our" side of the hemisphere.

 

Meanwhile the GEM develops a tropical storm at 168 hrs,which then tracks towards the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Given its day ten and fi step in the rite diection imo.where there's a zonal set up there is beyond me plus the jet looks like its heading south! Interesting model output atm and great to follow

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes the 12z later outputs show a lot of cold just to our north.

It does look like a milder spell next week as that cutoff Atlantic trough lingers just to our west feeding in warmer South Westerlies.

That lop sided Polar profile with the cold core over Eurasia/Russia is primed to give us another probably colder shot if those +ve height anomalies around Greenland verify.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

This could Affect the snow cover?

Positively, yes. But it would still be vulnerable at this time of year.
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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

ECM at t120 showing the warmer moist air starting to move in from the south west

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

In the end up you will probably be saying this still in two weeks time without the warm air moving in. I know this is off topic but it is true.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

In the end up you will probably be saying this still in two weeks time without the warm air moving in. I know this is off topic but it is true.

What???? I do not understand?

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

At this stage no

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Maybe something cooler from the north at t240

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

I dunno about your posts and gaz but classic charts coming out very much a massive build up of cold 2010 anyone.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

In the end up you will probably be saying this still in two weeks time without the warm air moving in. I know this is off topic but it is true.

of coarse but I don't think so as john would say middle ground could well be a factor and nothing screams blow torch nothing ive not seen in any recent Octobers apart from the build up of cold I think these charts are some very intresting and very exciting already the Prozac bottles are open lol

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The models seem to be taking a slightly different road this evening, the trend was to bring that low in further north and west, now they've edged this further south and east but to a large degree this still looks like a stalemate for the timebeing.

Historically its quite difficult to get low pressure sufficiently se to bring the colder air in with these types of set ups, the problem here is the initial start point for that low and the lack of trough disruption, also the core of the heights has edged west and the jet aligns less favourably.

We'll see whether the models might add a bit more trough disruption closer to the time, for the timebeing some interesting cold shown to the ne in the later timeframes but changes needed to get that into the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

PLEASE ECM 12z operational.i'M BEGGING YOU...just for once...PLEASE VERIFY @ T+240 hours.......what a stunner that would turn into by a day or two later..Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImageEPIC......Make it so........Posted Image 

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post-4783-0-58165900-1381434970.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's view of the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 10th 2013.

All models follow a similar course of events to this morning with High pressure to the North and Low pressure over or close to the South and these will be the dominating factors of the UK weather over the coming days. The North and West will see some dry and bright weather with average day temperatures but cold nights with a touch of frost. Southern and Eastern parts will stay cloudier and breezy with some spells of rain at times with the wind easing by the end of the weekend.

 

GFS then shows very similar conditions at the start of next week before a SW flow picks up carrying increasingly acttive troughs in across the UK so that by the end of next week all areas will of seen milder weather but with wind and rain frequent visitors to most places as subsequent troughs pass by. In the latter stages of the run Low pressure becomes a dominant force with just the briefest of ridges allowing a short drier spell. temperatures may drift downwards again towards the end of the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows Southerly winds strengthening through the middle of next week with rain bearing fronts moving slowly East into the West of the UK by then. Temperatures would recover to near average following the colder weekend and start to the week gone before.

 

GEM tonight is very similar to this morning with Atlantic wind and fronts crossing the UK through the week lifting temperatures at the expense of wind and rain. The end of the run is a little alarming in that for the second run in a row it shows a powerful ex-tropical storm off NW Spain destined for the UK with heavy rain and severe gales a distinct possibility should it evolve.

 

NAVGEM is much less dramatic with a slow trend towards Atlantic SW winds, milder temperatures and rain extending to all areas by the end of next week.

 

ECM is distinctly disturbed tonight and offers the potential of it's own to develop some powerful storms as the cold air to the North engages mild Atlantic SW winds. On tonight's version of this engagement the UK is right in the path of depressions moving East or NE with active troughs bringing strong winds and rain to all areas at times. Southern Britain for the most part remains on the mild side of these depressions while Northern areas become jolly chilly late in the week and next weekend with NE winds and potential snowfall to quite modest levels in the far North should it verify as shown.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a disturbed spell of weather to come with wind and rain at times for all. Temperatures will return to average levels or above at times in the South in the SW breeze. The operational's cold plunge at the end was a cold outlier with most members going for something at least a little warmer but with some rain at times.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow streaking South over the UK with a cut off weak circulation near SE Britain for several days. A new arm of the Jet moves across the Atlantic on collision course for the UK next week with not much of a cohesive pattern showing thereafter.

 

In Summary tonight things have not changed much since this morning with the continuing theme of cloud and rain crossing NE over Britain from the middle of next week. In the meantime the rather cold and breezy weather with occasional rain in the South and East lasts until the early week while the North stays dry and bright through the same time period. Longer term and there looks like there could be some deepening of the unsettled weather across the UK as Low pressure deepens it's grip over the UK as cold air to the North engages these systems with the risk being run of the potential for some chilly weather to appear across Northern areas from about 10 days or so.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

PLEASE ECM 12z operational.i'M BEGGING YOU...just for once...PLEASE VERIFY @ T+240 hours.......what a stunner that would turn into by a day or two later..Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImageEPIC......Make it so........Posted Image 

Hope so or we might all be doing this

Posted Image

There is a good chance when the Atlantic low passes through the UK that you will get a decent northerly blast and with heights over Greenland you might get some decent longevity to it as well.

In the earlier timeframes, looks like turning milder with rain spreading east. Between the fronts it could become quite warm weather for the time of year with winds sourced from the Azores or Iberia.

00z suite, what do you have in store for us......

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

interesting to see the higher heights around greenland persisting with a mean upper ridge in that locale.  i just cant get excited about the prospects of cold in october - sorry.  all i want to see is the lw pattern maintained thus the upcoming snowfall in n asia does not thaw until such time that any thaw this side of year end becomes unlikely. the way the vortex is positioned this week plus the scandi trough to follow does give rise to the prospect that russian snowcover could make it quite a long way west for the time of year and the siberian high may attempt to establish itself that bit further west than usual.  that would be retrogressive by definition. one thing that should be noted is that despite decent anomolys to our north, the lack of a low anomoly over mainland europe means we will struggle to advect cold over the uk.  so those winter anomly charts that look great for northern blocking - i suggest a low anomoly of some kind to our south is just as important if you want to see the uk colder than normal.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

PLEASE ECM 12z operational.i'M BEGGING YOU...just for once...PLEASE VERIFY @ T+240 hours.......what a stunner that would turn into by a day or two later..Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImageEPIC......Make it so........Posted Image 

 

What have I just woken up in December? or has the world just cooled by 5 degrees

Surely this time of year that would still just be rain/sleety showers away from northern hills with uppers of 0 to -5c by the time it spreads across most of the country? Similar to now perhaps.

Kind of interesting meteorologically, and I would find it interesting along with any southern tracking lows following, but they wouldn't be giving a winter wonderland or such that many people want.. just dumpings of the wet stuff for most.

Edited by Stormmad26
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