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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Posted Image

 

At t120 here, just check out the cold air spilling south over Russia.....The snow cover is going nuts this year and then this just puts the icing on the cake as it were!

 

Thing is 2002 had a lot of snow cover in that area, maybe more than this year but the UK had a mild Winter, so it's just 1 piece of the puzzle.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS continues to show milder wetter weather moving in next week of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clearer spells it should feel quite pleasant given the wind will be coming from the south west

 

EDIT

 

UKMO shows this as well with warm moist air from the south west

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

GFS continues to show milder wetter weather moving in next week of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clearer spells it should feel quite pleasant given the wind will be coming from the south west

 

EDIT

 

UKMO shows this as well with warm moist air from the south west

 

Posted Image

It will pretty wet for those in the West for much of next week. Interesting chart posted by SM, it's looking increasingly likely we'll see  another cold shot as we head on into the latter part of this month and into November. For now average to mild and rather wet for many.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Please put this in the correct area if considered the wrong one in here.

The latest ENSO outlook, link below, neutral through our winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

GFS continues to show milder wetter weather moving in next week of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clearer spells it should feel quite pleasant given the wind will be coming from the south west

 

EDIT

 

UKMO shows this as well with warm moist air from the south west

 

Posted Image

Yes a classically zonal spell on the way with systems tracking SW to NE with a pressure rise over Europe.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013101012/gfsnh-0-216.png?12

 

Interesting that the GFS is still 'seeing' a split flow to the SW of Greenland which will continue to support a big Greenland height profile-

 

Awsome for snow cover stats...

 

S

Will the ECM back it up, I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looking at the latest gfs output I woudnt call it a classic zonal coming up?not really much west to east movement imo and the nh profile shows quite subtle block towards greenland threw iceland.good cold pooling threw the north east into scan ete.temps will rise next week for sure but in the longer term be it fi things synoptics wise look promising esp for early october !

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013101012/gfsnh-0-216.png?12Interesting that the GFS is still 'seeing' a split flow to the SW of Greenland which will continue to support a big Greenland height profile-Awsome for snow cover stats...S

I thought you didn't rate the GFS and laugh at people who quote it?! so unless the ECM / UKMO shows it, shouldn't it be ignored?
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking in the longer term be it fi things synoptics wise look promising esp for early october !

Yes it could be v interesting by late october synoptically but before then it will be turning milder by later next week, a nw-se split with the most rain and strong winds for nw uk and the southeastern half of the uk having longer fine and very mild to rather warm with sunny spells and only occasional rain.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM at t120 showing the warmer moist air starting to move in from the south west

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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I thought you didn't rate the GFS and laugh at people who quote it?! so unless the ECM / UKMO shows it, shouldn't it be ignored?

 

I don't rate it- but its inline with the UKMO in terms of height profiles at 144 & I suspect the ECM will be the same tonight...

 

Im not looking at the UK at 144 im looking at the negative tilt on the trough over Western Greenland...

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12Z mean shows that pesky trough across the southeast on it's last legs by early next week as it finally fills and drifts away and a weak ridge extends down from the north with a more settled interlude, the north incidentally will have had several fine and mainly dry days by that point, however, things then look like switching around as the jet becomes aligned sw-ne with high pressure building to the southeast of the uk across the near continent and low pressure systems tracking northeastwards towards nw scotland so a transfer in balance to the southeast becoming drier, brighter and rather warmer with only occasional unsettled intervals whereas the northwest of the uk becoming generally unsettled and windier with strengthening sw'ly winds which will at least mean it turns milder, the same split then continues until towards late october.

post-4783-0-74194700-1381429533_thumb.pn

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post-4783-0-80538400-1381429576_thumb.pn

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post-4783-0-00111600-1381429604_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

So am I right in saying this is the transition period where normal or less active weather themes are more expected?

 

If you are talking of the ENSO outlook then you had best ask someone with more profound knowledge of how the ENSO feed back affects this part of the world in the winter-sorry.

 

anyone care to help?

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

 

The ECM @ 144 shows a 'tricky' chart to call, it would appear the low is going to push through & crank on into Europe ( as Ian alluded to)

However there is a clear split flow up the western side of Greenland, & 'some' trough disruption in the atlantic-

 

I suspect the hemispheric pattern will support a Greenland block with substantial snow building up over the Nordic regions, but for the UK would could end of on the warmer side of the atlantic flow as opposed to the Eastern side in the colder air-

 

Id say easiest to sit on the fence tonight- at least 1/2 days of milder atlantic air looks likely - although accompanied by rain as well.

 

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

 

The ECM @ 144 shows a 'tricky' chart to call, it would appear the low is going to push through & crank on into Europe ( as Ian alluded to)

However there is a clear split flow up the western side of Greenland, & 'some' trough disruption in the atlantic-

 

I suspect the hemispheric pattern will support a Greenland block with substantial snow building up over the Nordic regions, but for the UK would could end of on the warmer side of the atlantic flow as opposed to the Eastern side in the colder air-

 

Id say easiest to sit on the fence tonight- at least 1/2 days of milder atlantic air looks likely - although accompanied by rain as well.

 

 

S

Less mid days the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

 

The ECM @ 144 shows a 'tricky' chart to call, it would appear the low is going to push through & crank on into Europe ( as Ian alluded to)

However there is a clear split flow up the western side of Greenland, & 'some' trough disruption in the atlantic-

 

I suspect the hemispheric pattern will support a Greenland block with substantial snow building up over the Nordic regions, but for the UK would could end of on the warmer side of the atlantic flow as opposed to the Eastern side in the colder air-

 

Id say easiest to sit on the fence tonight- at least 1/2 days of milder atlantic air looks likely - although accompanied by rain as well.

 

 

S

Still no vortex build up over Greenland and a far more southerly positioned jet stream over the Atlantic. Even if the trough reaches the UK then I suspect there could be a rebuild of heights behind following in line with the NAEFS chart I showed moments ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Indeed if the Atlantic does make it through it'll be direct hits for the UK and I concur that the jetstream will track south as we go through that period.  I'm prepping garden etc for some stormy weather

 

BFTP

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