Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[MR EXTREMES]

so gaz and scorcher are going for above average and the rest are going for cool which is it because to my eyes I don't see anything remotely above average neither do I see it in the next ten days.

 

and from the ecm the building blocks are in place also worth noting the theres been a lot of talk from some about deep lows in the alantic crashing ne through the uk into northern Europe well if my memory serves me well then se tracking lows seem to be the theme in the last few winters and also I remember last years scandi heights that were not record breaking in mb but were very very robust sticking around for some time.

 

anyway must crack on theres a heatwave on the way.........

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby colder weather quickly replaced by average temperatures over the weekend

 

Good evening folks. Here is the report of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 8th 2013.All models show the cooling trend under way as the first of a couple of cold fronts clear the South. The second one clears through the South later tomorrow and it's this one that brings the most notable drop in temperature. With very little rain left on either of the troughs it's left to a mix of clear or sunny spells and showers to interrupt the dry weather with these most prevalent over the far North tonight, the NE and East tomorrow and then the SE and South through the latter end of the week and weekend. All this due to High pressure building over the Atlantic and transferring slowly NE to the North of Scotland over the weekend. Away from the showery zones the weather will be dry and bright with some sunshine by day but clear skies at night will lead to frost and fog patches in places.

 

GFS then takes us through next week with the South of Britain maintaining a lot of cloud along with slow moving and weak troughs maintaining the risk of occasional rain in places. A ridge of High pressure over Northern Britain will keep these areas mostly dry and rather cloudy and misty with all areas seeing temperatures no better than average.

 

UKMO has fairly slack conditions covering much of the UK early next week as the Low to the SE fills up. Cloud would probably be quite extensive with perhaps a little light rain and drizzle in places. Mist would remain quite extensive over the hills with temperatures close to average for mid October.

 

GEM shows slack conditions too early next week. However there is a sufficient push of upper winds from the SW to steer weak troughs NE across Southern Britain with occasional rain at times with near average temperatures. The North would stay largely dry with a cool SE breeze near the North Sea coast.

 

NAVGEM tonight shows Low pressure in control over Southern Britain early next week, slowly departing East by midweek as a finger of High pressure ridges down from the North over mist areas midweek with some fine and rather chilly conditions prevailing perhaps with some Autumn sunshine by day in places and mist and fog overnight and morning.

 

ECM tonight shows a cloudy weekend in the South with the likelihood of occasional rain. the North sees the driest weather with some clear or sunny intervals and frost and fog patches night and morning. Early next week sees a ridge extending South over the UK from the north with drier conditions for all with the risk of fog and frost extending South too in the light winds. Late in the run Low pressure to the SW of the UK drags wind and rain slowly North across Southern and SW Britain in freshening SE winds.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a cold snap before things turn less cool but no better than average. The greatest significance tonight comes from the increasing trend for more in the way of precipitation over the period from the weekend and this more significant over Southern regions. The operational was a warmer member of the pack for Southern locations.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow breaking away South over the UK in the next few days and setting up our Low to the SE of the British Isles at the weekend. In the period that follows this the Low in the SE dissolves and becomes empowered by a new wave of Jet energy across the Atlantic on much more Southerly a latitude to set up a flow running East to the South of the UK late in the run.

 

In Summary tonight the theme of colder weather continues from almost immediately moderating over the weekend and next week to average temperatures with slack pressure and a lot of dry if unexciting weather. However, GFS along with it's ensemble pack show quite a turbulent spell of weather with some copious rainfall events on occasion for the rest of the run. GEM and ECM also shows a limited attack next week from the Atlantic while UKMO and NAVGEM go insufficiently far enough out to give an impression but neither show anything conclusive on their day 6 and 7 charts respectively. Nevertheless with ECM coming on board tonight and with the strength of GFS and it's ensembles there is an increasing tend towards some genuine wind and rain from off the Atlantic later next week.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[smithyweather]

I'm taking lots of positives from tonight's GEFS 12Z mean, the PFJ is gradually being pushed further and further south for longer periods by that huge cold block to the northeast and the uk weather at the very least, looks a lot more like it should for the time of year, the pattern looks increasingly interesting as we head beyond mid october, I can see the potential for a cold spell evolving later in the month.

Well maxes of 9c ain't any use to us if we want snow.

[Summer Sun]

Well maxes of 9c ain't any use to us if we want snow.

 

You are not going to see snow at low levels this early in October your going to have to wait towards the end of October till the risk can increase

[Frosty.]

Loads of potential from tonight's Ecm 12z op run, monster cold block edging soutwestwards towards the uk and some kind of clash of airmasses is potentially being set up over the uk, there are comparisons to be drawn from this run and the Gefs 12z mean, i'm hoping we can tap into that cold air to the northeast later in the month, it looks like it could be close.

Edited October 8, 2013 by Frosty.

[dbaloo]

All this talk of snow is very nice but I think that a little bit of patience is needed.its the 7th of October and as much as most of us (including myself) would love to see a bit of the white stuff, the models flip and change so quickly as we have seen this week alone that maybe the weather turning more "average" for a few weeks would be a good place to start

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

So great to see the heights working in our favour for a change up in Greenland! Let us see that 1050mb block this December, other than June and July of previous years !

[ANYWEATHER]

Its amazing to see the cold this early on bottled up in the artic. dribbling down to the Uk.....

[Paul]

Going to be a screaming jetstream right over the country on Thursday..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So great to see the heights working in our favour for a change up in Greenland! Let us see that 1050mb block this December, other than June and July of previous years !

Let's hope the trend continues, I hope we get a decent shot from the north east, not just cold but some unstable air. It might not be cold enough for snow but hey the right conditions might set off some impressive north sea convection 

Whilst I haven't really seen snow in October, I do remember a couple of October spells which had some pretty beefy showers and thunderstorms which didn't care whether it was night or day.

[Jax]

All this talk of snow is very nice but I think that a little bit of patience is needed.its the 7th of October and as much as most of us (including myself) would love to see a bit of the white stuff, the models flip and change so quickly as we have seen this week alone that maybe the weather turning more "average" for a few weeks would be a good place to start

This time of year I expect such setups to give us nothing more than cold and rain, unless you are a goat on a scottish mountain.

[gottolovethisweather]

This time of year I expect such setups to give us nothing more than cold and rain, unless you are a goat on a scottish mountain.

 

Strange ewe should mention that, keep your eyes on the Northern Blocking wee tender folk, snaw is a coming.

 

 

Is this one related to Steve Murr by any chance.

 

 

Sorry boss, I see you're lurking. I'll get my goat, I mean my coat................

Edited October 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[johnholmes]

Its easy to see that the models have indicated a colder spell, just how cold depends on which post one reads. To newcomers, the Net Wx search for cold be it October or any month out to May has begun early this year. For quiet and objective posts and as unbiased an assessment as is possible I think you might find the so called technical thread of more help. Of course you may enjoy the roller coaster of searching for cold on ANY model that happens to show it, in which case ignore this post and enjoy.

 

The realistic chance of snow on low ground away from the far north is of course, at this time of year, pretty slight. There is nothing in the reliable time frame to suggest this not being the case this year. If one wants to search for cold then no doubt there can be a lot of if this, if that, then this could happen, a bit like my golf really.

 

To me the anomaly charts, now back to about normal service after their early autumn holiday, consistently show a 500mb flow suggesting returning Pm air rather than the probability of any direct Pm, other than any brief 24-36 hour outbreak, let alone Am (Arctic Maritime air). To those thinking that an easterly this time of the year will lead to deep cold and copious snow showers off the N Sea are I am afraid living in a fantasy world.

sorry to be a bit of spoil sport but I have had a couple of pm's asking just what is likely so I've put those comments down in here.

Edited October 8, 2013 by johnholmes

[Cloud 10]

Going to be a screaming jetstream right over the country on Thursday..

 

jetstreamsouth.png

 

Potential for 60mph+ gusts for parts of NE Scotland tomorrow.

 

 

Weather warning's out from Netweather but nothing from the met office?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Let's hope the trend continues, I hope we get a decent shot from the north east, not just cold but some unstable air. It might not be cold enough for snow but hey the right conditions might set off some impressive north sea convection 

Whilst I haven't really seen snow in October, I do remember a couple of October spells which had some pretty beefy showers and thunderstorms which didn't care whether it was night or day.

The showers you mention tend to happen with a moderate NE wind, they just run in and hit the coast and up to about 15 miles inland, they do tend to be cracking showers, sometimes hammering it down.

 

We'll get something late tomorrow/Thursday, but it's very dependant on the wind direction, anything west of NNE tends to stop the showers..

 

As for the Arctic air, bring it on, we need to have a break from this hum drum stuff

[Summer Sun]

Potential for 60mph+ gusts for parts of NE Scotland tomorrow.

 

13100915_0812.gif

 

Weather warning's out from Netweather but nothing from the met office?

 

Yeah I noticed that this is what GFS is showing

 

 

Away from the east coast later on tomorrow and into Thursday there is nothing happening really with the strong winds maybe the met office will leave it till overnight or in the morning

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Surprised a caution about the current high tides and strong Northerlies forecast down the East coast hasn't been issued!! Looks like the water could get really quite high if the low becomes a bit deeper than forecast.

[forecaster]

Potential for 60mph+ gusts for parts of NE Scotland tomorrow.

 

13100915_0812.gif

 

Weather warning's out from Netweather but nothing from the met office?

 

Well the UKMO issues warnings based on expected impact not on pre-defined threshold. I would expect they have been thinking about it though. 

[eastcoaster]

 For quiet and objective posts and as unbiased an assessment as is possible I think you might find the so called technical thread of more help. 

 

 

 

Sorry,  I'm new round here.  I can't find the 'technical thread'.  Any pointers, please.

[Yarmy]

Sorry,  I'm new round here.  I can't find the 'technical thread'.  Any pointers, please.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/

[Iceni]

It would be nice if Scotland could have yet another good ski season....it doesn't seem so long ago that it all doom and gloom about their prospects... 

Global warming forces sale of Scottish winter sports resorts

 

Back in Charles Dickens day there was a run of several winters with a White Christmas....so much so that, for charles dickings, it was normal for him to think of being small and seeing snow at Christmas.Perhaps we are entering a similar run of winters now. Perhaps years of disappointment of seeing potential in the models never quite realised will become amazement at the actual development?  PErhaps we can have a cold end to October and yet still have a winter that sustains its impact through to the middle of March?  (but not April again please!)it will be interesting viewing this year to see if the models start to pursue some of the milder solutions we usually expect them to come up with in a winter only to find they are backtracking within days to much colder ones.  One live in (lots of) hope!

 

You've got to also remember that Christmas is 11 days earlier than it was up until the mid-18th Century - all the old traditional Christmas carols and traditions included snow and cold frosty days...

 

So their Christmas Day would have been our 6th January, when snow and cold is unremarkable - even a week and a half makes a big difference. It was caused by the Pope Gregory changing the Julian Calender to the Gregorian one in 1752, because Easter was moving into early summer when it was supposed to be in Spring.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013100818/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

Well ive missed todays model discussions - however the models are firming up on the retrograde block - & most of us did expect it to land, & now that shortwave I highlighted in the models is responsible for the colder & colder air progressing very close to the UK-

 

A chart for Mid October with this expanse of cold is a sight to behold-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100812/ECM0-240.GIF?08-0

 

If I was given that I would say mid to late November in terms of 850 temps¬

 

So we look to be a month ahead on cold, snow expanse will grow & we have an outside change ( maybe 5%) of snow falling in England within 10-12 days...

Worth a punt @ 20/1

 

Its not ideal weather & certainly not like what we had today- buts its what we have & very unusual at that!

S

[Frosty.]

Yep there are very encouraging signs that later this month it could become much colder with a risk of snow, potentially better than october 2008, Ecm 12z shows a wintry pattern evolving towards T+240 hours, I hope this trend continues, : -)

[Timmytour]

You've got to also remember that Christmas is 11 days earlier than it was up until the mid-18th Century - all the old traditional Christmas carols and traditions included snow and cold frosty days... So their Christmas Day would have been our 6th January, when snow and cold is unremarkable - even a week and a half makes a big difference. It was caused by the Pope Gregory changing the Julian Calender to the Gregorian one in 1752, because Easter was moving into early summer when it was supposed to be in Spring.

 

Charles Dickens was born on 7th February 1812  

[johnholmes]

Sorry,  I'm new round here.  I can't find the 'technical thread'.  Any pointers, please.

hi

welcome to Net Wx, this is the link, don't be put off by the title and do ask questions if you are unsure, have a read in the Guides as well.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/page-5#entry2801267