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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice charts these from the Gfs 06z op run, first of all we have the nailed on Northerly blast which is a nice bonus since the models last week showed a continuation of the benign warmth but this has blown that idea out of the water, there will be snow showers on the scottish mountains, a significant covering and with drifting in the gale force N'ly winds, it's only brief but it shows that winter is just around the corner. Then look at how the 6z evolves later, firstly we get high pressure building in from the atlantic across scotland and then drifting to the north, meanwhile, we will have a persistent slow moving trough to the southeast which will make those areas much cooler than recently with some rain and certainly a lot of cloud.

 

Then a major cold plunge sweeps southwest across scandinavia and at the same time, atlantic low pressure spreads northeast towards the uk, they ultimately clash and the upshot is the uk continues cool and becomes very unsettled following a limited settled spell, there is no sign of a return to the current conditions, conditions which have dominated this autumn so far, there is potential on the 6z for a major retrogressing pattern to eventually enable a much colder arctic blast later in the month which would bring snow to all areas next time, just like late october 2008.Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For snow lying everywhere we'd need -8c uppers and 522dam everywhere with heavy snow showers everywhere.

I just love the end of the 6z run, that would be the real deal with a much more wintry prospect, better than the end of october 2008 in my opinion, yes it's FI but there has already been signs on the ecm of a retrogressing pattern slowly taking shape, the 6z op run just gives us a glimpse of what would follow that chart, the arctic ice gates blown wide open.Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

GFS ramping up the vortex in this run, hatched areas creeping ever more steadily into Scandi. Some convective feedback in effect perhaps, will be interesting to compare the ECM 168 later this evening.

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The mid Atlantic low looking pretty unanimous now for round about day 5.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If the Atlantic low can break though next week we'll see a return to less cold uppers for a time

 

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Settled end to GFS with warmer uppers waiting in the wings

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I guess for some decent cold it's just a case of biding ones time, though everything looks incredibly slow.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I guess for some decent cold it's just a case of biding ones time, though everything looks incredibly slow.

It can't be any slower than the sluggish pattern so far this autumn, at least things are moving forward now rather than backwards...good trends, proper autumn at last. : - )
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It can't be any slower than the sluggish pattern so far this autumn, at least things are moving forward now rather than backwards...good trends, proper autumn at last. : - )

Should I make a will just in case I died of old age before it arrives Posted Image

Looks like the low will make it's move eastwards by the middle of next week, where it goes, who knows, will it go north of us, over us or south of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

I just love the end of the 6z run, that would be the real deal with a much more wintry prospect, better than the end of october 2008 in my opinion, yes it's FI but there has already been signs on the ecm of a retrogressing pattern slowly taking shape, the 6z op run just gives us a glimpse of what would follow that chart, the arctic ice gates blown wide open.Posted Image Posted Image

Hmmm well I don't know. I can't see snow lying to sea level everywhere in October.

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

I think some people on here today are running before they can walk - this doesn't look that cold to me for any widespread snow, of course things can change, if anything it looks like the Atlantic is going to finally kick into gear next week and temperatures returning to average or slightly above after the chilly weekend.

 

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Edited by Gaz1985
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

I think some people on here today are running before they can walk - this doesn't look that cold to me for any widespread snow, of course things can change, if anything it looks like the Atlantic is going to finally kick into gear next week and temperatures returning to average or slightly above after the chilly weekend.

 

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And some people must be reading a different thread, the only snow being forecast by members is for the Scottish mountains.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

And winter would he helpful

It could potentially snow widely from 3 weeks time onwards if the conditions are right, as per the Gfs 06z op run in FI following the retrogression, and remember Nov 2010, doesn't have to be from dec 1st. The next Northerly type flow will have even more bite although given the wind chill on thursday in the south, temps will feel like 5 celsius. it's a nice taste of things to come.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at tonight's ECM and again those in the south and SE look like ending the week on a wet a cold note but for the north its a different story with high pressure keeping it sunnier

 

 

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t168 see's the high starting to push south with warmer uppers coming in from the west as well

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Posted Image

Hmm, Easterly coming up?

Next chart will be the decider but looking for the trough over central Europe to re-invigorate with heights to the north.

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Not quite the raging current underneath a temporary surface Scandi ridge, but I'm starting to feel interest now :)

Greeny high for the finale but I think it's possible to get the cold in earlier than 10 days with some adjustments

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

After that we can see a very interesting set up

 

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Edited by Jonan92
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I think some people on here today are running before they can walk - this doesn't look that cold to me for any widespread snow, of course things can change, if anything it looks like the Atlantic is going to finally kick into gear next week and temperatures returning to average or slightly above after the chilly weekend.

 

Posted Image

 

Indeed Gaz and the ECM looks milder this evening- the uppers for Thursday aren't looking quite cool as they might have been either if the ECM is to be believed. Overall it's looking okay if it's a return to at least average temperatures you're after. It could be quite pleasant for the north from Friday onwards, particularly Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Posted Image

Top notch regression at d9 on the EC- very cold across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe prior to this as well- and Gav, I wouldn't bank on much sunshine anywhere, with a lot of low cloud cover likely to rotate and delve into the HP cell throughout next week.

The negative tilted Atlantic trough has been a major feature of recent years- will be interesting to see whether the EC and other NWP continue to project it.

All in all, a pretty cool and cloudy week likely for most, with snow and sleet and sun at a premium. Plenty of drizzle and low cloud though.

And indeed d10 is a scorcher (for mid October, and if scorcher is pretty cold); w/ the retrogression going full moon.

Posted Image

Wouldn't bank on an immediate return to milder conditions at all. Cooler and drier than usual the likely outcome I'd say.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Posted Image

Ok, I'm in Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Tomorrows ECM will be interesting to see if this trend continues and strengthens. I would personally like more cold air feeding in the Euro trough around day 7/8 as that should speed the retrogression up and deepen the Euro trough to deliver some unseasonable cold to our shores.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm taking lots of positives from tonight's GEFS 12Z mean, the PFJ is gradually being pushed further and further south for longer periods by that huge cold block to the northeast and the uk weather at the very least, looks a lot more like it should for the time of year, the pattern looks increasingly interesting as we head beyond mid october, I can see the potential for a cold spell evolving later in the month.Posted Image

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