Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[draztik]

Looking at the ECM in greater detail tonight; lower pressure to the North of the UK will graze NI and Scotland, brining rain to Scotland and NI on Monday. Showers tumble down over the UK from the North into Tuesday.. Into Wednesday, we see a change, which affects the Eastern side of Britain into the foreseeable...with showers or longer spells of rain. It will feel particularly cool here, combined with the Northerly winds... it appears temperatures will be close to 10C in Eastern areas by day. By the weekend the rain in the east will transfer west and affect more of England. Into the latter stages, rain sweeps into the West from a low in the atlantic, primarily affecting NI and the Republic.

[damianslaw]

As others have commented on - UKMO leading the way at the moment, the first to spot the correct developments to our NE i.e. the appearance of the scandi trough sending the high NW.

 

ECM quick to follow suit, with GFS left trailing behind with its uncertainty.

 

On occasion the UKMO can throw out a few surprises in the 120 hr timeframe suggesting a different outlook to GFS and ECM, but on much rarer occasion than GFS it has to be said.

 

So a cooldown is on the cards from mid-week, thanks to the development of a northerly airstream, but only back to levels you would expect for the time of year. Interesting to see how far south the 528 dam line is predicted to move.

 

The most likely evolution is for the high to topple in from the NW again but with the trough to our east a bout of cold rain/showers looks on the cards to end the week and also possibly the first true frosts of the season, more so for the north.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble continues to show high pressure staying put over the UK

 

So once the potential northerly is out the way something more settled would return

 

 

From the weather outlooks Christmas forecast zonal pattern becoming established?

 

High pressure has been persistent and stubborn during recent times with only short unsettled interludes. However, there are now signs of a change towards the middle of October with a good chance of a more zonal pattern becoming established close to the UK and possibly east across much of Europe. If this becomes established it could reduce the chances of early cold becoming established in eastern Europe

Edited October 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

So long as the 528 dam line stays up near the Arctic Circle, I'll be happy enough.

[Scorcher]

Wow, I have to admit I'm feeling rather gutted to be honest.

Quite frankly the ECM is probably won of the worst runs I've seen in a long while. It has the get in the sandbags feel to it. That could be 4-5 days of continuous moderate to heavy rain for here. It doesn't get much worse than that, in fact that would beat summer 2012 in awfulness levels

At least in the reliable timeframe the GFS/UKMO keep the worst of the weather out to sea and there would be just a few scattered showers with some chilly nights before temperatures recover and conditions nationwide become dry and bright with temperatures close to or a little below normal for the time of year.

 

Gutted is definitely the word, only 2 days ago we were looking at a nationwide settled spell with unseasonably warm temperatures last through the week- I really don't know what has happened! A complete about turn from the models (particularly the ECM) and a depressing one at that. I can't recall ever seeing such a huge turnaround- we've gone from fantastic 'couldn't be better' charts to horrendous almost 'couldn't be worse' charts from the ECM in the space of a couple of days. Shows how depressing model watching can be at times- think it's time I gave it up!

[Frosty.]

BBC News 24 weatherman just said it will be turning a good deal colder next week..so now it's official, mr s murr, hats off to you for calling this yesterday. :-).

[Methuselah]

^^^

So long as the 528 dam line stays up near the Arctic Circle, I'll be happy enough.

Okay then, I'm not happy!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Gutted is definitely the word, only 2 days ago we were looking at a nationwide settled spell with unseasonably warm temperatures last through the week- I really don't know what has happened! A complete about turn from the models (particularly the ECM) and a depressing one at that. I can't recall ever seeing such a huge turnaround- we've gone from fantastic 'couldn't be better' charts to horrendous almost 'couldn't be worse' charts from the ECM in the space of a couple of days. Shows how depressing model watching can be at times- think it's time I gave it up!

 

got to agree it is depressing, if we had been 6 weeks later, I would not agree, hate autumn

[syed2878]

sorry mods this needs to be said. First j.h didn't anyware on his post he was telling peeps how to post. Secondley lot of new comers including my self have learnd alot from j.h and his posts r lot mor ballenced than lot of hope casters on this forum and there's very few on here with a ballenced view.

[swfc]

So how stupid do I look telling my son to book three days away at scarboro next week?settled and warm I said after following frostys llinks! Lol yes good call mr murr indeed

[johnholmes]

For what it is worth, the anomaly charts have all week suggested that the main area of +ve heights, and a suggestion of an upper ridge in that area, has been over/e/ne of the UK. So the idea the synoptic models have, fairly generally now, that after the possible trough extension in the N Sea, then a surface ridge in the Scandinavia/N Sea area seems fairly likely, whether this is a new ridge behind such a trough (now being shown on Met Fax charts) or the surface ridge moving east out of Greenland, probably under the upper air pattern influence, is a moot point. As to the actual surface weather from the back end of next week then we have to wait and see how the synoptic models suggest this. Frost is a distinct probability for a some areas, at least the ground variety.

[Ian Brown]

So how stupid do I look telling my son to book three days away at scarboro next week?settled and warm I said after following frostys llinks! Lol yes good call mr murr indeed

It's possible that Steve M may have called it correct, but that won't necessarily be the case in the winter. Anyway very disappointing given the late season warmth that could have been on the cards.

[Captain Shortwave]

So how stupid do I look telling my son to book three days away at scarboro next week?settled and warm I said after following frostys llinks! Lol yes good call mr murr indeed

That's rather unfair considering even 24 hours ago the UKMO was on it's own out of any of the more respected models in regards to the northerly outbreak next week.

Simply put the other models were very wrong at a timeframe where they shouldn't have been. To see the ecm flip at just 4 days away is shocking. Also every long range model forecast for October looks set to be wrong by the middle of the month. Basically the overwhelming consensus for October was trumped by a seemingly rogue UKMO run. Fair play to it for getting it right. It's the first time the UKMO has got something right at that time frame for quite a while.

Given the absolute terrible mess the models have frequently got themselves into over the past 2 months. I fear for the sanity of myself and many others on here during the upcoming winter. 

Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

So how stupid do I look telling my son to book three days away at scarboro next week?settled and warm I said after following frostys llinks! Lol yes good call mr murr indeed

LOL I just described what the models were showing and showed charts to back it up, not my fault it's all gone pete tong. :-)

[Tamara]

So how stupid do I look telling my son to book three days away at scarboro next week?settled and warm I said after following frostys llinks! Lol yes good call mr murr indeed

I think that might apply to the METO as well, who have consistently forecast what has been in line with the models, and with all the benefit of all their own information available to them - thus the changes in output are not always foreseeen by the professionals, so there is no basis for any of us to be wiser before or after the event here either

Edited October 5, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[summer blizzard]

That's rather unfair considering even 24 hours ago the UKMO was on it's own out of any of the more respected models in regards to the northerly outbreak next week.Simply put the other models were very wrong at a timeframe where they shouldn't have been. To see the ecm flip at just 4 days away is shocking. Also every long range model forecast for October looks set to be wrong by the middle of the month. Basically the overwhelming consensus for October was trumped by a seemingly rogue UKMO run. Fair play to it for getting it right. It's the first time the UKMO has got something right at that time frame for quite a while.Given the absolute terrible mess the models have frequently got themselves into over the past 2 months. I fear for the sanity of myself and many others on here during the upcoming winter.

The only model more respected is the Euro, globally the Euro and Ukmo are a fair bit ahead of the Gfs.

[bluearmy]

One thing that continues to play out in the sypnotic patterns is the propensity for energy to dive south, be it well to our west to dig the atlantic trough or closer to home as looks likely this upcoming week. Thats been a theme for several years now and if it continues, (and why shouldnt it), it promises another fun filled winter.

[Captain Shortwave]

The pub run is giving the south east corner a soaking much like the ECM earlier. Starts raining Wednesday night and at Saturday it's still going. In fact there is some really heavy stuff moving out of the continent by then

[DR(S)NO]

The ECM ensemble continues to show high pressure staying put over the UK

 

So once the potential northerly is out the way something more settled would return

 

 

From the weather outlooks Christmas forecast zonal pattern becoming established?

 

High pressure has been persistent and stubborn during recent times with only short unsettled interludes. However, there are now signs of a change towards the middle of October with a good chance of a more zonal pattern becoming established close to the UK and possibly east across much of Europe. If this becomes established it could reduce the chances of early cold becoming established in eastern Europe

But Gavin it does go on to say this...

Partly due to this the sixth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas. However, they remain above the long term average, especially in the south because background signals still seem to favour high pressure blocking to the north of Britain and this usually means cold weather during the winter months.

In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be above the long term average.

Only fair to give the whole picture ,dont you think??

[swfc]

LOL I just described what the models were showing and showed charts to back it up, not my fault it's all gone pete tong. :-)

LOL I just described what the models were showing and showed charts to back it up, not my fault it's all gone pete tong. :-)

my comments were tongue in cheek frosty lol.I just hadn't checked the output until late today.makes any 7-10 day forecast slightly dubious now I suspect !

[Yarmy]

The pub run is giving the south east corner a soaking much like the ECM earlier. Starts raining Wednesday night and at Saturday it's still going. In fact there is some really heavy stuff moving out of the continent by then

*Sigh* Can you imagine that in December.

Only been able to glance at the models over the last couple of days: oh my, incredible changes at short range. Must remind myself of this over winter.

[lorenzo]

Looks like a long winter ahead of model watching indeed, already the shredder blades are sharpening and a bigger model bin is required. For those reading that aren't familiar with the phrase binned, binning etc It isn't just abuse, the pros over the pond use this term frequently to discard wayward solutions.

 

I fear for the slaugthering GFS has coming it's way, can't help feel it is a victim for churning out 4 runs a day so as much as it is maligned, it keeps the soap opera ticking along..

 

Day 6 bias map shows the jet anomalies, a 50 knot plus bias exiting the eastern seaboard on both the 00z and 12z, the 00z last 10 runs also kicking things along at Greenland.

 

00z / 12z

 

At 72 hrs... GFS on par with the Japanese and Canadian models.

 

At 120 hours, the 06z, yes you read that right, the morning madness run is the best verifying run of the GFS. The 12z in other charts in this range on par with the pub run.

 

Finally, the one to watch , UKMO, at 144 hrs leading the pack.

 

UKMO and ECM - clearly the one's to watch. I really fear GFS will be referred to with the same respect as CFS this season. Still , I guess we wouldn't have it any other way!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

& there we have it pages & pages of discussion on the GFS + GFS Ensembles, the ECM + ECM Ensembles- & without provoking comments about point scoring- they are all going to be wrong -

I hopefully was clear on the posts over the last few days-

 

As proved time over last year the euros ( usually the ECM but on an almost equal par last year ) the UKMO has showed that the GFS is an embarrassment & almost worthy of being totally ignored.

 

This is how bad the GFS is- NOTE how afwul the 06z IS-

 

ECM 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100512/ECH1-120.GIF?05-0

 

UKMO 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100512/UN120-21.GIF?05-19

 

 

GFS 06z 126

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100506-0-126.png?6 CLUELESS

GFS 12z 120

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100512-0-120.png?12   EASTWARD BIAS SHOWN 'typical'

 

 

& now the GFS ensembles-

 

12z yesterday

GFSfriday04oct.png  Note the mean for the 10th is unanimous @ +10c

 

12z today -

Satoct5th.png   Note now the gfs is starting to work out that the mean needs to be close to -1c.

 

 

So, in summary-  the first model bout of the year & the GFS is knocked out with one punch from the UKMO-

 

remember a 12 degree swing in the ensembles in 24 hours. FAIL .............

 

As I said last night Steve, the GFS ensembles are next to useless IMO. Far too much lurching back from 'unanimous' scenarios within small amounts of time (sometimes in the space of 2 runs), to be considered credible at all. I'm shocked people still use them. Good for occasional reference and cross checking with other NWP output but that's about it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3954&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&run=0

 

 

Whilst its game for a laugh the 12Z CFS from yesterday would set the pulses racing - snow pretty much on & off from December to late March-

 

with charts like this in the mix-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfs-0-3114.png?12

 

I have never seen cold like that in Europe-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfs-2-3378.png?12

 

S

 

Steve, I've been watching the CFS for about 6 months now. One thing that it consistently throws up is the suggestion of a winter -AO. Sometimes (about 60-70%) this is accompanied by a -NAO. It's extremely bullish with this.

[Nick F]

Well, well, well. ECM has shown its superiority over GFS, yesterday we saw its 00z op suddenly opt for a northerly from mid-week whilst the 00z GEFS members were having none of it. This morning ECM remains steadfast with the northerly while GFS has fallen in line with its tail between its legs.

 

Nothing unusual wrt to the GFS op falling in line with the ECM after big disagreement and occasionally vice-versa. But the fact that none of the 20 GEFS members on yesterday's 00z run were hinting at the northerly - is a little unusual - and suggested the 00z ECM op yesterday was an outlier. It wasn't.

 

GFS suggesting widespread ground frosts with perhaps air frosts in the north inland Thursday and Friday mornings, away from the east coast where it looks cloudy with showers. Something a bit more seasonal.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Nick F