South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/09/13 ------------>

[Tamara]

Well my squib got a little damp earlier walking across the hospital car park back to the car but certainly nothing hideous - it can do what it likes now I'm in for the night !

It hasn't been too 'hideous' so far as I suggested yesterday it might from my own pov (and as a few people seem to want to keep referring to ) but there are several hours to come where something might occur within the more unstable air mass which, at the time of typing is still arriving, however briefly it will be here this evening. It is this that always has held the greater threat for storms (or promise of them if you like that sort of thing). 

[Jax]

Sun is out here now

[Coast]

Sun is out here now

 

Capture it and hold on tight to it until Saturday lunchtime then:

 

[abruzzi spur]

Especially for National Poetry Day:

 

1. A limerick

 

There once was a forecast for thunder

That made us all sit up in wonder

But the rain hardly came

And the thunder the same

And the forecast had been such a blunder!

 

2.  A nursery rhyme

 

Incy Wincy spider

Climbed up the spout

And just kept going really........

 

Hopefully these will look silly (well, more silly) later once we have been well and truly rumbled upon!

 

AS

[Captain Shortwave]

Screw the highlights reel, might as well show the entire 10 minutes of moderate rain before it stopped again.

Another southerly plume, another fail 

I'm not amused 

[throwoff]

27 days before I start  snow hunting!

[Tamara]

Carrying on from that post a short time ago, sure enough heavy showers are now developing into thunderstorms as they approach the North French coast in that unstable airmass and they are heading straight for this region. Things may look quite different in a couple of hours or so

 

http://meteox.com/images.aspx?jaar=-3&voor=&soort=loop-bliksem&c=&n=&tijdid=20131031823

 

Edit: That area of storms is expanding and growing - clearly the evening threat that was predicted is going to materialise. and these are intensifying closer to us rather than this morning when the lightning activity dissipated as the storms moved into the more stable conditions over the North French coast there was then.

 

The GFS still expects this unstable air to be with us until late into the evening...

Edited October 3, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[jamesslater93]

Raining here, hopefully I'm in a decent place for all these showers later on.

[Jax]

Capture it and hold on tight to it until Saturday lunchtime then:

 

Did that!

 

 

now who can drive me to the burns clinic?

[Tom Quintavalle]

 

Carrying on from that post a short time ago, sure enough heavy showers are now developing into thunderstorms as they approach the North French coast in that unstable airmass and they are heading straight for this region. Things may look quite different in a couple of hours or so http://meteox.com/images.aspx?jaar=-3&voor=&soort=loop-bliksem&c=&n=&tijdid=20131031823 Edit: That area of storms is expanding and growing - clearly the evening threat that was predicted is going to materialise. and these are intensifying closer to us rather than this morning when the lightning activity disippated as the storms moved into the more stable conditions over the North French coast there was then. The GFS still expects this unstable air to be with us until late into the evening...

 Hi Tams,Yes, certainly quite a rapid intensification of those cells, south of Cherbourg. All not lost then for the Brontophiles in the region.KCZ.

[Jax]

Tamara, what is with the alien squiggles in your name now?

 

have you been taken over?

[Tamara]

 

 

Hi Tams,

Yes, certainly quite a rapid intensification of those cells, south of Cherbourg. All not lost then for the Brontophiles in the region.

KCZ.

Yes Tomas,  I'm not liking at all the way those storms are organising themselves ahead of crossing the channel. With evening now arriving the channel will assist those storms and not hinder them.  CAPE and lift now present, plus increased lapse rates because of the relatively warm SST's creating a greater temp differential after dark, then it doesn't look good for those of us who don't want them.

 

Jax - it is the Hebrew translation of my name (as per profile)

Edited October 3, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Anvils in the Sky]

Yes Tomas,  I'm not liking at all the way those storms are organising themselves ahead of crossing the channel. With evening now arriving the channel will assist those storms and not hinder them.  CAPE and lift now present, plus increased lapse rates because of the relatively warm SST's creating a greater temp differential after dark, then it doesn't look good for those of us who don't want them.

 

Thank you for that succinct explanation of why the chances are high that the French storms may make it to the SE this evening. Easy to understand for someone like me who has forgotten all the A-level Geography he learnt over 20 years ago.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Anvils in the Sky

[Tamara]

Thank you for that succinct explanation of why the chances are high that the French storms may make it to the SE this evening. Easy to understand for someone like me who has forgotten all the A-level Geography he learnt over 20 years ago.

Thanks  - well from what I read and understood that is the theory ...time will prove over the next hour or two exactly what does happen. The evening sky here has thunder written all over it. The sky is much more unstable than it was with the rain band early this afternoon 

[Tom Quintavalle]

 

Thanks  - well from what I read and understood that is the theory ...time will prove over the next hour or two exactly what does happen. The evening sky here has thunder written all over it. The sky is much more unstable than it was with the rain band early this afternoon

 

On that note, very strange light outside the office window, pinkish/coppery glow. Not great for us Brontophobes me thinks but certainly more interesting than beige!

KCZ.

[Tamara]

 

 

On that note, very strange light outside the office window, pinkish/coppery glow. Not great for us Brontophobes me thinks but certainly more interesting than beige!

KCZ.

I feel safe with beige clouds  Even though my wardrobe colours are bolder

 

A whole cluster of storms currently starting to cross the channel and heading for our shores

Edited October 3, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Anvils in the Sky]

Speaking of the evening sky....

I do like where I live, but it's not great for sunsets as I'm in a slight dip, with houses higher up to my west. (And next door's washing line in the way too!) So these are the best I could do.

The sky as it currently looks to my WSW. All I can ask myself now is "Will I be seeing lightning there over the next few hours?"

[Tamara]

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Content/image.ashx?type=lightning-12&time=

 

It looks like it is fully destabilising as suspected. Spherics in the channel now and breaking out ahead of the main cluster

 

Its going to kick off here very shortly I think. lightning now visible just out to sea - time to close down the computer

Edited October 3, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Anvils in the Sky]

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Content/image.ashx?type=lightning-12&time=

 

It looks like it is fully destabilising as suspected. Spherics in the channel now and breaking out ahead of the main cluster

Yep. I also couldn't help but notice how the activity has started exploding into life over the Cherbourg peninsula.

[Tom Jarvis]

I'm liking the look of the stuff just leaving the French coast

[Anvils in the Sky]

I'm liking the look of the stuff just leaving the French coast

Me too. And Tamara has explained why it's looking as if it could make it to these shores this evening. But I'm still keeping my feet firmly on the ground. Too many let-downs in the past ensure I always do that these days!

[snow raven]

Oooo, things seem to be kicking off - I can't help feeling excited! Please mother nature keep the storms moving in our direction...!

[Mark Neal.]

A poor show so far, even the rain was a whimper here in Oxford a large band of heavy rain to West of here around lunchtime and some heavy pulses albeit brief to the East, instead 20 minutes of rain, of which only about 5/10 minutes of heavier bursts, before some sunny spells and feeling very warm this afternoon, highs of 19.6c.   Maybe a stormy night ahead?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Are we due a high level wind shift as those storms are moving north east :@

[Tom Quintavalle]

Not much of a punt I know but any thundery action I would suggest mainly restricted to Sussex/Kent, with only lighter ppn towards the Surrey/London area.

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur&lightning=1

KCZ.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Kentish CZ