South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/09/13 ------------>

[Snowangel-MK]

Met Office updated warning can't link as am on phone.

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, Milton Keynes, Slough & Medway

 

 

Further outbreaks of heavy, thundery, rain will spread from the south during Thursday and overnight into Friday with the potential for some torrential downpours in places.

 

The public should aware of the risk of localised flooding.

 

 

Issued at:

0845 on Thu 3 Oct 2013

 

Valid from:

0900 on Thu 3 Oct 2013

 

Valid to:

0800 on Fri 4 Oct 2013

 

A band of persistent and often heavy rain will continue to develop across much of Northern Ireland, west and central Scotland during Thursday, easing from the west by Friday morning. There is the possibility of 10-15 mm of rain falling within an hour in a few places whilst 20-40 mm accumulates fairly widely by the end of this period and as much as 80 mm in a few places in Scotland.

 

Meanwhile other areas of heavy, thundery rain will spread into southern and southwestern parts of England and Wales during Thursday morning, moving further northeast across much of Wales, central and eastern England during the rest of the day, whilst further thundery showers affect southwestern areas during the evening and overnight into Friday. Amounts of rain will be very variable, but locally 20-30 mm is possible within an hour and 40-50 mm within 3 hours, mainly in the southwest, but many places will receive much less than this.

 

This warning will be kept under close review and updated as necessary.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=880376CF-6EB8-6C1D-CA6A-72FA9CAA3F3F_5_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1380754800

[Coast]

Liking this!

 

 

http://warnings.severe-weather-centre.co.uk/southeastengland-index.html

 

 

 

 

 

[Sussex Jules]

Thanks Coast and MK let's hope we all see some action.

[Snowangel-MK]

That Galway video was a good find MK, it certainly looks as though it was more than just a funnel cloud

 

Well for the 2nd night in succesion I was rudely awoken  at 2am by the sound of railway maintenance work being carried out just yards from my bedroom window. Pneumatic drills, workmen shouting above the din, then engineering trains going back and forth. The amount of work being carried out on this section of track is ridiculous, it's been going on for 3 or 4 years now on and off, with no end in sight.

 

I consoled myself by watching this particular gem on BBC I - Player though. ' The Great British Year ', first episode was shown on BBC 1 last night

( Wednesday October 2nd ) at 9pm and covers winter. Whatever you may think of the BBC they are top notch when it comes to programmes like this and I'm sure it will appeal to a good many of you folk.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01db15t/The_Great_British_Year_Winter/

 

 

Just to drag my post back on topic, it's another mild and humid night here, currently 14c with not a breath of wind. I see the main storm threat seems to have shifted further west, but our region may be in with a shout later in the day. Whatever your weather preference, have a good Thursday.

 

 

Mr P and I watched that last night, as you say a gem of a documentary and beautifully filmed as is always the way with the BBC wildlife and nature programmes 

 

 

Morning all,

 

Dry and bright here this morning.....for now 

 

Oh and so those of you in the East of the region don't feel left out here is your bit of the warning.....

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

 

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Suffolk, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

 

 

valid from 0900 Thu 03 Oct to 0800 Fri 04 Oct

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

[Snowangel-MK]

Thanks Coast and MK let's hope we all see some action.

 

Your welcome....fingers crossed it's not just a damp squib 

[Coast]

Still a way to go and not necessarily coming to a County near you, or will they?

 

 

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 03/10/2013 09:38:55

 

Tracking 2 thunderstorms

 

------------------------------------------------------- 

Thunderstorm ID E-1107 detected 09:11              

 

Storm location bearing 245.2 dgr distance 189 mi from IOW                

 

Last recorded activity      09:36              

Intensity class             Weak              

Intensity trend             Weakening              

 

Current strikerate          1/minute              

Peak strikerate             6/minute              

 

Total recorded strikes      97              

Cloud-Ground strikes        40 - 41.24%              

Intracloud strikes          57 - 58.76%              

 

-- Strike type distribution --              

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 21 - 21.65%              

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 19 - 19.59%              

Positive Intracloud   [+IC] 21 - 21.65%              

Negative Intracloud   [-IC] 36 - 37.11% 

-------------------------------------------------------

 

------------------------------------------------------- 

Thunderstorm ID S-1139 detected 09:11              

 

Storm location bearing 168.2 dgr distance 220 mi              

 

Last recorded activity      09:38              

Intensity class             Weak              

Intensity trend             No change              

 

Current strikerate          3/minute              

Peak strikerate             8/minute              

 

Total recorded strikes      86              

Cloud-Ground strikes        38 - 44.19%              

Intracloud strikes          48 - 55.81%              

 

-- Strike type distribution --              

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 15 - 17.44%              

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 23 - 26.74%              

Positive Intracloud   [+IC] 27 - 31.40%              

Negative Intracloud   [-IC] 21 - 24.42% 

-------------------------------------------------------

 

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.9.1.8120:ST-PCI

 

 

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

 

[anything-but]

Bugger,can i get to Herne Bay,then to London (with a few stops in Kent in-between) and back home before the entertainment starts?? 

 

Do NOT want to be riding the bike in what sounds like slightly wet n thundery weather!

[Anvils in the Sky]

Morning all,

 

Beautiful, sunny start to the day so far here. But is it the calm before the literal storm? Quite a change in today's MetO warning from yesterday's "shrunk down" version - the increase in area is pretty staggering, to my eye! Oh well, just have to play the waiting (and radar & strikes watching) game now...

 

Not sure if anyone is interested, but I notice the Italians - for a few days now - are going for "trombe d'aria" (tornadoes, I believe) in Rome on Saturday. (And all because of somebody called Penelope! Hehe!)

http://www.ilmeteo.it/

 

Lee

[Coast]

Morning all,

 

Beautiful, sunny start to the day so far here. But is it the calm before the literal storm? 

 

Morning Lee,

 

Lots of indications - positive and negative today. As always keep checking the radar and lightning detectors.

[snow raven]

Your welcome....fingers crossed it's not just a damp squib 

I bet it bloody is though

 

Although as with the weather rollercoaster, I still can't quite help but build my hopes up that we will see (and indeed hear) some storms!  *fingers crossed*

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

 

Beautiful, sunny start to the day so far here. But is it the calm before the literal storm? Quite a change in today's MetO warning from yesterday's "shrunk down" version - the increase in area is pretty staggering, to my eye! Oh well, just have to play the waiting (and radar & strikes watching) game now...

 

Not sure if anyone is interested, but I notice the Italians - for a few days now - are going for "trombe d'aria" (tornadoes, I believe) in Rome on Saturday. (And all because of somebody called Penelope! Hehe!)

http://www.ilmeteo.it/

 

Lee

 

Hi Lee,

 

You can keep your trombe d'aria, grazie, tuoni and fulmine are bad enough, thank you!

 

Ciao,

KCZ

[Snowangel-MK]

Just in cast any of you missed Nick Finnis' forecast in the storm and convective thread here it is...

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2013-10-02 21:32:19

Valid: 03/10/2013 0000z to 04/10/2013 0600z

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis

An amplified upper-level trough and surface low pressure system stretching from Iceland down to NW Iberia will slowly edge eastwards towards western UK on Thursday. A long-draw southerly flow will be in place across the UK, with increasingly warm/moist air advecting north in warm sector during the day, with a cold front moving in from the SW during the evening, clearing the east coast by midnight.

 

... SW ENGLAND, WALES, IRELAND/N IRELAND and IRISH SEA WEDS NIGHT...

 

Warm/moist air advection and continued height falls/large scale ascent with approaching upper trough from the west will continue to bring further heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight and early morning in the above areas, though convection looks to wane with time with dynamic rainfall tending to take over during Thursday.

 

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, THE MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA and LINCS THURS PM ...

 

A summer-like plume of high wet-bulb potential temperatures (theta-w values of 16c+) will advect north from France across Sern Britain during Thursday afternoon and evening. This warm/moist airmass will be characterised by steep low to mid-level lapse rates and will become increasingly unstable as mid-levels cool and forcing for ascent arrives with approaching cold front and trailing upper shortwave trough moving up from the southwest during the evening.  GFS indicated MLCAPE values approaching 600-700 j/kg  in the afternoon/evening.  Therefore, it seems thunderstorms will develop late afternoon/evening/overnight drifting north/northeast, though they will likely be rooted above the boundary layer – i.e. elevated in nature.  Strengthening mid to upper southerly flow will allow any storms to organise into multicell or perhaps small mesoscale systems capable of producing high rainfall totals in a short space of time – bringing the risk of localised flooding. Also storms may produce hail, gusty winds and frequent CG lightning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

 

 

[Reefseeker]

After a muggy night it was nice to wake up to blue skies and sunshine with a hint of mist. 15 degrees car temperature but back to grey skies now. With the heavy rain forecast for later, we're getting 3 weather types in one day, 4 if we get thunder too:) A nice change from the smidgely boring weather of late, although nice to be warm I guess.

 

I love the severe weather if it comes, but am a bit worried as I have a day of hospital tests tomorrow and am hoping the weather won't be sufficiently severe to hit staff or services - I imagine this won't be the case, generally only reserved for the snow, but any wise thoughts on this would be appreciated by the knowledgeable, even if it's to tell me what nonsense this worry is!

 

Have a good day everyone.

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyway aside from the storm risk, lovely start here, lots of blue sky and just some thin high level cloud.

[Anvils in the Sky]

Morning Lee,

 

Lots of indications - positive and negative today. As always keep checking the radar and lightning detectors.

Morning Coast,

Yep. I think I'll be glued to the usual sites today!

 

Hi Lee,

 

You can keep your trombe d'aria, grazie, tuoni and fulmine are bad enough, thank you!

 

Ciao,

KCZ

Nooo! I want an extra large helping of tuoni and fulmine please. You 'phobes have got months free of them ahead!

BTW, that presenter lady on the Italian site is fab. She sometimes gets quite loud and excited when there's severe/dramatic weather on the way to La Bella Italia!

[Heisenberg]

This first batch seems to be moving fast up from France.....will it lose intesity as it crosses?? Also is this the main band? I thought it was mostly meant to be tonight....

[RUSH]

Well, if the NMM TT index is any indication:

 

ok cool i better get out and about this morning then better not leave till later to day,thanks mate takecare all.. mind the pudles

[Tamara]

This first batch seems to be moving fast up from France.....will it lose intesity as it crosses?? Also is this the main band? I thought it was mostly meant to be tonight....

There look to be two areas of rain and thunderstorms. The first one approaching the channel from France and already into the south west and the second one due towards or by evening - both look thundery, but the second one could be the worst of the two, at least for some of us in this further south east corner.

 

Cloud is already building and bubbling up ahead of the first main band, and it is not the small fluffy type either.

[Coast]

This first batch seems to be moving fast up from France.....will it lose intesity as it crosses?? Also is this the main band? I thought it was mostly meant to be tonight....

 

Seems like a smaller band (for us) of rain this morning with a low possibility of TS activity then more of a chance later this afternoon around rush-hour.

 

Gathering together all the model/chart information, today's media weather forecasts, current radar, satellite and lightning detector I can be very confident this morning that I still haven't a clue exactly what's coming and when! 

[Coast]

First heavy rain of the day has made it into Benny Hill

[Anvils in the Sky]

Gathering together all the model/chart information, today's media weather forecasts, current radar, satellite and lightning detector I can be very confident this morning that I still haven't a clue exactly what's coming and when! 

Uncertainty regarding thunderstorms in this country??? You jest, surely, Coast?!

[Coast]

You jest, surely, Coast?!

 

Pretty much most of the time...... :winky: 

[Biggin]

Hmmn A few drops just started here, wasnt expecting that yet. Is stuff building ahead of that front ??

Edited October 3, 2013 by Biggin

[Methuselah]

Will have to look far away to the East or to the West: that is the question.

[Jimmyh]

skies are def changeable and fast moving here in Sutton