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Why has the Atlantic Hurricane Season been so quiet throughout 2013?


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So, it has been worth mentioning now that it is astonishingly quiet in terms of hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic this year. It would be great to see peoples views on this, explanations, ideas on why it has been so dead and what impacts it may well have throughout the rest of Autumn. 

 

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Its the persistence of high pressure in the Atlantic

 

Ever since the bitter March spell left we've entered a fairly quiet and mild spell of weather with hardly any Atlantic lows

Must be a vital player in it, the BBC seemed to be saying it was going to be a fairly active one though. That was a good 2-3 weeks ago now, and still absolutely diddly squat to be seen in sight! Has to be the most inactive season I've seen yet.

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Must be a vital player in it, the BBC seemed to be saying it was going to be a fairly active one though. That was a good 2-3 weeks ago now, and still absolutely diddly squat to be seen in sight! Has to be the most inactive season I've seen yet.

 

The beeb were using data from NOAA I think it was

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Its the persistence of high pressure in the Atlantic Ever since the bitter March spell left we've entered a fairly quiet and mild spell of weather with hardly any Atlantic lows

Not directly. African monsoonal activity has been near average and tropical pressure values have especially in the eastern Atlantic being below average.The cause of our woes essentially is that the Hadley cell is much broader and further north than normal leaving a layer of lower instability and dry air in our main development region.
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Well, one big advantage is the comparative lack of death and destruction on the Atlantic side of the Americas. Posted Image

 

It's not too late though; Wilma, which had the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin, was in mid to late October.

Edited by Steve C
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With our ( UK) change in fortune this summer and an Arctic showing a side that is equally uncommon recently maybe we should wonder if the 'Forecasts' are missing out on something in their modelling?

 

Maybe something is 'changing' that has not yet been embraced by the models or ,at least, not weighted properly?

 

The conditions that have allowed so much Saharan dust into the key areas of Storm formation are also part of this 'hemispheric oddity' this summer.

 

If anyone , other than myself, can explain what could have driven the jet into a similar amplitude to recent years but shoved it's troughs and ridges over different geographic regions then maybe we'd have an insight into why the forecast for the Hurricane season appears a tad off thus far?

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With our ( UK) change in fortune this summer and an Arctic showing a side that is equally uncommon recently maybe we should wonder if the 'Forecasts' are missing out on something in their modelling?

 

Maybe something is 'changing' that has not yet been embraced by the models or ,at least, not weighted properly?

 

The conditions that have allowed so much Saharan dust into the key areas of Storm formation are also part of this 'hemispheric oddity' this summer.

 

If anyone , other than myself, can explain what could have driven the jet into a similar amplitude to recent years but shoved it's troughs and ridges over different geographic regions then maybe we'd have an insight into why the forecast for the Hurricane season appears a tad off thus far?

 

Perhaps 'locked in patterns' are thing to watch out for in the future. Periods of more storms/less storms more heat/more cold. Extended periods of 'non norm'

 

The Mediterranean in summers post 2025 get the rain we get the heat / dry weather, due to locked in high pressure.

 

Maybe the French will get all the rain / gales in the summer ?

Edited by stewfox
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Don't rule out the Atlantic waking up during our winter if it did those seeking cold and snow would be rather disappointed

 

Its going to wake up at some point the trouble is nobody knows when at the moment

 

 

maybe not gavin, maybe atlantic storm seasons and mild winters are a thing of the past.....

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Let's not forget that we have seen extremes ( yet again!) all across the N. Hemisphere this summer and the Winds that lifted Dust out of the Sahara and into the Atlantic ( for extended periods over summer) are surely part of this pattern?

 

I'd also agree that the season could well have a sting in the tail! The ocean tracks have not been 'milked' by other storms and so we still have a lot of energy awaiting the right wave turning up.

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Let's not forget that we have seen extremes ( yet again!) all across the N. Hemisphere this summer and the Winds that lifted Dust out of the Sahara and into the Atlantic ( for extended periods over summer) are surely part of this pattern?

 

I'd also agree that the season could well have a sting in the tail! The ocean tracks have not been 'milked' by other storms and so we still have a lot of energy awaiting the right wave turning up.

GW 

 

You're apparent assumptions on this post are not born out in practice.

I have been over to Miami area of Florida 8  times  in the last  12 years in the Aug to Oct period and 4 occasions thunderstorms have brought down dust which the local Metmen claimed originated in the Sahara.

It is not an unusual situation.

 

MIA

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I never intended to suggest that the dust does not regularly travel across the pond? Studies in the Caribbean place the up-tick in childhood asthema there squarely at the Sahara's door?

 

It is the consistent amounts and positioning of the dust this season which has had the forecasters note it as a contributing factor to the low numbers in early mid season?

 

I'm sure we will hear more of this at seasons end so maybe we'd better wait until we have all the facts before making further comment?

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