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Tropical Storm Pabuk has formed, roughly 300 miles southeast of the island of Iwo To, Japan. Pabuk is a very large tropical storm with winds of 40kts. Because of Pabuk's large size, strengthening will probably be slow, although the low shear and warm along track sea temps do support intensification. Pabuk is currently moving northweswards alongbthe southwest side of a steering ridge but should move north then northeast out to sea as it rounds the western extent of the ridge. Pabuk is forecast to peak at cat 1 typhoon intensity before weakening begins in cooler waters to the north.

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Pabuk has strengthened to 50kts. The circulation has contracted a little bit, and there is some fairly persistant convection near the LLCC. Banding features are becoming more prominant too. Pabuk is likely to strengthen further whilst shear is low and waters warm, and Pabuk will likely become a typhoon.

 

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Edited by Somerset Squall

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Tropical Storm Pabuk could bring a glancing blow to Japan in the next several days as the system tracks across the warm waters of the West Pacific Ocean. Regardless of the exact track, dangerous surf from Pabuk will begin to impact Japan later Sunday and likely continue through the middle of the week.

 
Pabuk, which developed into a tropical storm early Saturday morning, will remain in an environment conducive for some strengthening, and it could briefly attain typhoon status Monday or Tuesday. Prior to any impacts to Japan, Tropical Storm Pabuk will track northwestward through Monday and will not directly affect any landmasses; however, some deeper moisture partly due to Pabuk has already dumped nearly a foot of rain across Guam over the last three days.
 
On Tuesday, a strong cold front pushing toward Japan will begin to steer the storm in a more northerly direction. The cold front is expected to cross Japan during the middle and latter part of the week which will help to capture Pabuk, turn it northeasterly, and steer it just to the east of the mainland. The timing of the cold front crossing Japan is crucial to determining exactly when Pabuk will get picked up and steered toward the north and northeast.
 
If the cold front is slower in getting to Japan, Pabuk could pose a much more serious threat for heavy rain, strong winds, and a dangerous storm surge to the country. Another possibility is that Pabuk does not get completely captured by the cold front next week, and the storm stews around close to Japan for the end of the week. Interests in Japan are encouraged to keep abreast of the latest track and potential impacts that Pabuk may bring to the region.

 

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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-pabuk-japan/18014438

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Pabuk is moving over Iwo To, bringing heavy rains and high winds. The storm is packing sustained winds of 60kts, and could become a typhoon this afternoon. An eyewall is developing, and convection is increasing around it, something that has not been happening with Pabuk so far. Pabuk is expected to peak at 80kts before swinging northeast, out of the tropics.

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Pabuk has made the 5kt increase to 65kts, typhoon status. Convection waned this afternoon but has recently increased and begun to wrap around the eye feature. To the south side of the eye convection is still limited at present, but the deep convection encircling the other sides of the eye should wrap around fully soon. Once this happens, Pabuk does have the opportunity to strengthen a little more.

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Tropical Storm Pabuk's position south of Japan as of early Monday morning, September 23. Although still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), Pabuk is pulling in rains from the southwest monsoon (Hanging Habagat) across Northern Philippines. Pabuk may enter the PAR by Wednesday and be given the local codename "Pablo".

 

 

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/photo/45294/ts-pabuk-nears-par

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Pabuk has strengthened a little more, to 70kts. The convection has fully encircled the eye, though it isn't that deep. Pabuk has probably peaked, or near enough.

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Pabuk has unexpectedly strengthened, and is now an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon on the SS scale. The eye, though large, has become much better defined. The convection has become slightly deeper surrounding the eye over the last few hours. As Pabuk is nearing the upper level westerlies to the north, poleward outflow is increasing, which may account for the more robust intensification this evening. Pabuk could intensify a little more before the westerlies inflict shear causing Pabuk to weaken from tomorrow afternoon.

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Typhoon Pabuk’s Eye Now Closed Seen By NASA Satellites

 

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NASA
 
Typhoon Pabuk’s eye was clear on visible and infrared NASA satellite imagery on Sept. 24, and one day later high clouds covered the center and Pabuk’s eye was “closed.†Satellite data also showed that Pabuk’s eye shrunk by about 5 nautical miles in the last day.
 
When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Typhoon Pabuk on Sept. 24 at 16:05 UTC/12:05 p.m. EDT, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument viewed the storm in infrared light. The AIRS data clearly showed that Pabuk had a 30 nautical mile/34.5 mile/55.5 km wide-eye. AIRS data also showed that the eye was surrounded by powerful thunderstorms that stretched high into the troposphere and were likely generating heavy rainfall. Infrared data revealed cloud top temperatures exceeding -63F/-52C that indicates powerful storms.
 
On Sept. 25 at 01:35 UTC/Sept. 24 at 9:35 p.m. EDT, as NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Typhoon Pabuk, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument captured a visible image of the storm that showed the center filled in by high clouds. The eye has also diminished in size and was 25 nautical miles/28.7 miles/46.3 km in diameter.
 
By 0600 UTC on the Sept. 25, Pabuk’s maximum sustained winds were near 90 knots/103.6 mph/166.7 kph.  The typhoon was centered near 29.9 north latitude and 139.7 east longitude, about 361 nautical miles/415.4 miles/668.6 km south of Yokosuka, Japan. Pabuk was moving to the north-northeast 9 knots/10.3 mph/16.6 kph and is forecast to bypass Japan.
 
The Typhoon has been moving counter-clockwise around a large area of high pressure and is now rounding the northwestern edge of it. As a result, Pabuk is now on a north-northeasterly path that will shift to the northeast. Pabuk is expected to remain at sea in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean as it transitions to an extra-tropical storm by Sept. 27.

 

 

 

http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112957716/typhoon-pabuks-eye-closed-092513/

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