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Ed Stone

Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...

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The January data is all in now for the NSIDC. We currently stand at 6th lowest on record with this year seeing the 12th largest January gain.

 

Anywho, at this time of year, we generally look towards the Pacific side of the Arctic for the main extent increases, and partly toward the Barents Sea. As has been the case most of the winter, a strong ridge looks like dominating toward Alaska and the Bering Sea, dragging much milder air up from the central Pacific. Meanwhile, mainly mild southerly winds and low pressure appear to dominate Barents

 

t24

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t96

 

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t144

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With this in mind, a rather slow 5 days growth may be ahead of us, with just maybe the Sea of Okhotsk offering up some decent gains.

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I'm starting to wonder if last year was really a sign of the losses we saw in 2012 but that the upcoming year, now being in that groove, will show a different melt pattern reflecting the warmth over the basin this late winter? 

 

I'd agree that we are a million miles away from the ice factory of 2011 or 2010, that high has put paid to that and doesn't look like it wants to go anywhere soon?

 

Open water all the way into Fram and the same depleted state for Barentsz? 

 

How will Feb/March pan out?

 

That's the question for me. The way the Jet is a.t.m. I don't see and stings in winters tail this year?

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It's a pity her claims temperatures in the 30s and 40s being similar to the 90s and 00s aren't backed up by the data, or the references she supplies (some of completely contradict her), not that most of her readers are likely to check them.

 

Anyway

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It's a pity her claims temperatures in the 30s and 40s being similar to the 90s and 00s aren't backed up by the data, or the references she supplies (some of completely contradict her), not that most of her readers are likely to check them.

 

Anyway

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I think you'll find that's not the case, as I'm more inclined to believe Judith Curry a climate scientist than BFTV a blogger on Net Weather.Posted Image

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2014 Warm Arctic – Cold Continents pattern

 

As I begin planning for another Greenland expedition to study ice melting, I wanted to explore whether the cold eastern North America, that has generated so much media hot air, was part of what some scientists are calling the “Warm Arctic – Cold Continents†pattern. Examination of US NCEP NCAR (link) gridded data reveals that YES, the story has more elements than the US is feeling the cold this winter.

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I think you'll find that's not the case, as I'm more inclined to believe Judith Curry a climate scientist than BFTV a blogger on Net Weather.Posted Image

 

Did you check her sources and apply your self proclaimed scepticism?

Are the graphs and data I supplied wrong? Could you demonstrate that they are wrong?

 

I'm not a blogger btw.

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I think SI gets tripped up by his own pedantry when dealing with others?

 

The rise in temps are indeed 'like' one another just that our current one is occurring at a higher temperature? SI feels she means that they are 'identical in every aspect when she says 'are like'?

 

The the two warming surges are both driven by natural and man made forcings it's just that todays surge is also tempered by pollution levels that were absent in the early warming surge. When we clean up the Asian pollution we will see the 'difference' in warming is really quite marked but that trend is hidden by the negative forcings of the aerosols ( see paper linked to on man made thread for levels of negative forcing)

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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I think SI gets tripped up by his own pedantry when dealing with others?

 

The rise in temps are indeed 'like' one another just that our current one is occurring at a higher temperature? SI feels she means that they are 'identical in every aspect when she says 'are like'?

 

The the two warming surges are both driven by natural and man made forcings it's just that todays surge is also tempered by pollution levels that were absent in the early warming surge. When we clean up the Asian pollution we will see the 'difference' in warming is really quite marked but that trend is hidden by the negative forcings of the aerosols ( see paper linked to on man made thread for levels of negative forcing)

 

I'm afraid JC was much more specific, and wrong. From the link provided by SI.

 

Arctic surface temperature anomalies in the 1930’s were as large as the recent temperature anomalies. 

 

The data on post 179 on the previous page shows that assertion to be blatantly false.

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A number of webinars that may be of interest.

 

Tuesday February 11th @ 11am EST (4pm GMT)

Ice-Ocean Interactions Part 1: Sea ice in the Arctic

Webinar ID: 290874785

Webinar registration: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/290874785

Panelist: Dr. Geli Renner ([email protected])

Dr. Angelika Renner from the Norwegian Polar Institute will provide an overview of sea ice-ocean interactions, with a focus on sea ice in the Arctic. A more detailed presentation of the drivers of turbulent heat flux towards Arctic sea ice and the impacts of sea ice cover on the upper ocean will follow the overview.

 

Wednesday February 12th @ 11am EST (4pm GMT)

Ice-Ocean Interactions Part 2: Marine-terminating Glaciers

Webinar ID: 331483992

Webinar registration: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/331483992

Panelist: Dr. Gordon Hamilton ([email protected])

Dr. Gordon Hamilton from the University of Maine will provide an overview of marine-terminating glaciers and explain why these glaciers are incredibly sensitive to changing ocean properties. The presentation will focus on research performed at the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet, where the majority of the research on glacier ice-ocean interactions has been executed.

 

Friday February 14th @ 11am EST (4pm GMT)

Ice-Ocean Interactions Part 3: Glacial Fjords

Webinar ID: 389431569

Webinar registration: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/389431569

Panelist: Dave Sutherland ([email protected])

Dr. David Sutherland from the University of Oregon will provide an overview of ice-ocean interactions in glacial fjords. A general introduction of glacial fjords will be presented, followed by more detailed information on fjord circulation and how changes in fjord circulation can impact marine-terminating glaciers.

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Arctic sea ice volume up about 50 per cent on last year Cryo sat measures 9000 cubic km of sea ice compared to 6000 cubic km the year before.

cm Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky

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Arctic sea ice volume up about 50 per cent on last year Cryo sat measures 9000 cubic km of sea ice compared to 6000 cubic km the year before.

cm Posted Image

 

Have you a link for that?

 

Seems the PIOMAS data shows January to be below 2010, but above 2011, 2012 and 2013.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg19896.html#msg19896

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Posted Image;

 

And I was just about to post about the worrying sight of Bering losing ice hand over fist at the moment?

 

Why worry if the ice inside the Basin is in such rude health?

 

I was going to go on to muse the early season impacts of Bering being open to the Pacific so early in the season and the impacts that will have on Beaufort on the Pacific side but that massive ice gain that KL has just shown us ( no links yet so unconfirmed) allay those fears as Greenland/Barentsz are also light on ice meaning all of that extra ice is either in Hudson Bay....sorry that area is no in the PIOMAS area... so it must all be in the Basin's central region?

 

So will that mean we can expect the basin ice to last that much longer this summer and highlight KL's info ?

 

EDIT: I Get it now ! this is why we have so much more ice up there!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Have you a link for that?

 

Seems the PIOMAS data shows January to be below 2010, but above 2011, 2012 and 2013.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg19896.html#msg19896

Born thought i entered link ,here it is http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_low

Edited by keithlucky

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Right..... I thought we did this in November and then again in December ( across the threads)?

 

2012 was a record low summer across the board. 2013 was a melt season better suited for ice retention and was cloudy so limited surface melt over the central Pack ( remember all those storms?).

 

So what we saw was the ice rebounding from the record low and also benefiting from a low loss summer.

 

Maybe we should compare with a non record year ( 08,09,2011) and see just what the recovery looks like when compared to them?

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Well you can spin this both ways :-

 

 

About 90% of the increase is due to growth of multiyear ice – which survives through more than one summer without melting – with only 10% growth of first year ice. Thick, multiyear ice indicates healthy Arctic sea-ice cover.

This year’s multiyear ice is now on average about 20%, or around 30 cm, thicker than last year.

 

 

 

While this increase in ice volume is welcome news, it does not indicate a reversal in the long-term trend.

“It’s estimated that there was around 20 000 cubic kilometres of Arctic sea ice each October in the early 1980s, and so today’s minimum still ranks among the lowest of the past 30 years,†said Professor Andrew Shepherd from University College London, a co-author of the study.

 There are a few people on here that post nothing but doom & gloom.

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I'm sorry drgl, give me the long picture with the happy ending then? I'm not trying to be 'down' but , akin to the rest of the science engaged in the study of Arctic sea ice, we will see the basin become seasonal due to the warming we have seen ( never mind the warming we will see!).

 

The type of ice and ice level needed to have a sustainable sea ice pack no longer exist in the basin and , a global catastrophic cooling aside, there appears no way of regaining that level of cover.

 

We will see 'wiggles' in the line as it descends to zero but the biggest wiggles will always be the down shifts ( look at the past 15 years if you need evidence of that!).

 

We shouldn't confuse the sight of ice free sections of the basin as the sign of unsustainable nature of the pack. The 'shift' to unsustainable will have occurred when volume dropped below a level that allowed for the  type of melt out that 07' brought us? Maybe some point in the 80's when Fram was in full export?

 

But then we need to look at what drove the changes to that high level exodus through the 80's? If this was a pattern shift driven by subtle shifts in atmospheric/ocean circulation then we need shift the 'unsustainable' line back further.

 

What I'm trying to highlight is the folly of thinking 07's losses are the 'problem' when , in reality, the 'problem is far larger involving mind boggling volume losses that dropped volume by over 50% from the 60's to the late 80's. The relatively small volume shift in 07' and 2010 pale when compared to such losses but they were not as 'visible' as seeing open water suddenly appear across the basin.

 

To accept the loss of the summer ice is to free your mind up to figure what such a massive change will bring , in an instant, to the global climates and weather patterns.

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Look back further than this century, has the ice retreated & grown in the past? Unless my memory has gone I distinctly recall that being the case?? Are we not still in the process of exiting an interglacial? As again  I'm sure that what a was taught 30 years ago....

 

I also seem to recall some "scientists" stating we would be ice free in the summer by now (probably the same people who said snow would be a thing of the past now too).

 

As for the happy ending, you know no more than me what the next 50 hell even 10 years will bring.

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Look back further than this century, has the ice retreated & grown in the past? Unless my memory has gone I distinctly recall that being the case?? Are we not still in the process of exiting an interglacial? As again  I'm sure that what a was taught 30 years ago....

 

I also seem to recall some "scientists" stating we would be ice free in the summer by now (probably the same people who said snow would be a thing of the past now too).

 

As for the happy ending, you know no more than me what the next 50 hell even 10 years will bring.

 

The sea ice has been on a general decline during the 20th century, which sped up around the 60s.

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Going back before this century, the planet was on a cooling trend and and sea ice was increasing from for around 1300 years, until roughly the dawn of the industrial revolution.

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Back before that, we were actually cooling towards a new glacial period from the Holocene Climatic Optimum (the last time sea ice was this low or lower) in line with the Milankovitch cycles. So it's likely that sea ice increased during this time also.

Posted Image

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I'd be very cautious in believing the '20's and 30's' blurb. We now have a number of map resources that show ice levels over that period ( and more in the pipeline) and none reveal anything like the reductions we saw through the noughties? This shows that volumes were maintained over that period and though we may have seen peripheral 'regional' variance we did not see anything approaching current melt levels.

 

If anything we were well on the way to another glaciation until the meltdown that the ind. rev. drove?

 

EDIT: Thank's BFTV! That certainly pads out the history! Sadly it appears the myth makers have done a number on some folk but ,with the help of the facts, we might undo some of that damage?

 

Change is not an 'opinion' it either 'is' or 'isn't' and the data fills in which this is for us no matter what the 'Misleaders' might throw into the mix?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Sadly it appears the myth makers have done a number on some folk but ,with the help of the facts, we might undo some of that damage?

 

Change is not an 'opinion' it either 'is' or 'isn't' and the data fills in which this is for us no matter what the 'Misleaders' might throw into the mix?

Myth makers? I'm a little busy but I'll try & find the TV programme on youtube & link back to it. Until then I'll await a snowless world & no polar icecaps.

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Arctic Warmth in Early February Sees 200,000 Square Kilometers of Sea Ice Lost, Greenland Melt as New Study Finds Massive Glacier Triples its Seaward Velocity

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/arctic-warmth-in-early-february-sees-200000-square-kilometers-of-sea-ice-lost-greenland-melt-as-new-study-finds-massive-glacier-triples-its-seaward-velocity/

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The authors comments further down state :

"Oh the PIOMAS curve is a deadly one. Puts us at zero ice around 2015 to 2017. I have reason to suspect the curve might not exactly fit. But think it will be closer than not.

And, oh yes, there is risk of near zero ice this year."

So I haven't long to wait!!!

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I think since 2012 we have been just 1 'perfect melt storm' away from near zero ice? If 'average' melt seasons can see ice drop 18% from the low of 07' then surely a perfect storm, capable of melting out and or exporting 1/3 of the then ice in the basin ( older more resilient ice) then such an event will have no problems with the 2m average ice in the basin today?

 

2017 is the earliest predicted return of the 'perfect melt storm' phenomena but who knows what else might occur? if we do see Nino conditions messing with weather and temps across the globe we could see some odd melt years ahead?

 

EDIT: They've finished the PIOMAS tinkering and so the anoms are ironed out. In the release we are also treated to a graphic of the recent years. Take a look at the swell recovery we saw last summer that KL has been telling us all so much about;

 

Posted Image

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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IJIS/JAXA extent down to 2nd lowest on record for the time of year (to the 8th), while CT is on 3rd lowest (to the 7th) and NSIDC is 6th lowest (to the 7th)

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