Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC extent now 12th lowest on record, ahead of the 99-03 average.

[stewfox]

re IJIS  After a short stall, back on the upward path

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

[knocker]

AGU conference 2013: Bye-bye Arctic, hello extreme climate change

 

At the 2013 AGU conference held in San Francisco this week, Professor Peter Wadhams laid out the case for the Arctic, going into detail about the retreat of the Arctic ice and the cost to society for the soon to be ice-free area. Speaking at the Moscone West building Tuesday morning about climate change, the affable professor showed a series of slides showing the retreat of the Arctic and what lies ahead for our warming world, also bringing up the famous "Arctic Death Spiral" graph which shows the rapid decline of ice in the Northern hemisphere.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/agu-conference-2013-bye-bye-arctic-hello-extreme-climate-change

[Gray-Wolf]

Just been looking at the breakdown of sea areas over at C.T. The pacific coasts seem to be responding to the current Jet anoms with Bering and Okhotsk showing low gains ( allowing their anoms to rise) whilst other 'gateway' areas also show issues ( Barentsz/Greenland/Baffin). The inner basin might be on track but with warmth flowing all around the region the 'extension' areas are struggling.

[knocker]

CryoSat: Arctic sea ice up from record low

 

We have monthly PIOMAS updates, a new sea ice thickness product derived from SMOS brightness temperatures was presented earlier this month (see video), and now it's time for some more news from the third of the thickness trident: CryoSat-2.

From the European Space Agency website:

 

Measurements from ESA’s CryoSat satellite show that the volume of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased this autumn.

 

The volume of ice measured this autumn is about 50% higher compared to last year.

 

In October 2013, CryoSat measured about 9000 cubic km of sea ice – a notable increase compared to 6000 cubic km in October 2012.

 

Over the last few decades, satellites have shown a downward trend in the area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice. However, the actual volume of sea ice has proven difficult to determine because it moves around and so its thickness can change.

 

CryoSat was designed to measure sea-ice thickness across the entire Arctic Ocean, and has allowed scientists, for the first time, to monitor the overall change in volume accurately.

 

About 90% of the increase is due to growth of multiyear ice – which survives through more than one summer without melting – with only 10% growth of first year ice. Thick, multiyear ice indicates healthy Arctic sea-ice cover.

 

This year’s multiyear ice is now on average about 20%, or around 30 cm, thicker than last year.

The difference in volume between this and previous freezing seasons seemed to be getting smaller according to the last PIOMAS update. Hopefully the CryoSat team can regularly keep us up-to-date on their data as well. Their product has proven extremely useful so far.

“One of the things we’d noticed in our data was that the volume of ice year-to-year was not varying anything like as much as the ice extent – at least in 2010, 2011 and 2012,†said Rachel Tilling from the UK’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, who led the study.

 

“We didn’t expect the greater ice extent left at the end of this summer’s melt to be reflected in the volume. But it has been, and the reason is related to the amount of multiyear ice in the Arctic.â€

 

While this increase in ice volume is welcome news, it does not indicate a reversal in the long-term trend.

“It’s estimated that there was around 20 000 cubic kilometres of Arctic sea ice each October in the early 1980s, and so today’s minimum still ranks among the lowest of the past 30 years,†said Professor Andrew Shepherd from University College London, a co-author of the study.

 

The findings from a team of UK researchers at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling were presented last week at the American Geophysical Union’s autumn meeting in San Francisco, California.

 

“We are very pleased that we were able to present these results in time for the conference despite some technical problems we had with the satellite in October, which are now completely solved,†said Tommaso Parrinello, ESA’s CryoSat Mission Manager.

 

In October, CryoSat’s difficulties with its power system threatened the continuous supply of data, but normal operations resumed just over a week later.

With the seasonal freeze-up now underway, CryoSat will continue its routine measurement of sea ice. Over the coming months, the data will reveal just how much this summer’s increase has affected winter ice volumes.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/12/cryosat-arctic-sea-ice-up-from-record-low.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Edited December 17, 2013 by knocker

[Coast]

2013 was the seventh warmest year on record and saw one of the strongest cyclones, some of the longest heatwaves and the most topsy-turvy weather experienced in decades.

 

Nowhere is thought to have witnessed faster change than Nikkaluokta, a small Lapland village above the Arctic circle in northern Sweden. On 3 December, it was enjoying an unseasonally warm 4.7C. Within a few days, the temperature had dropped to a bone-chilling -40.8C (-41.4F) but on 10 December it rose again in just a few hours to a balmy 7.7C. The 48.5C rise in under 48 hours is one of the greatest ever recorded and is comparable to the world's fastest-temperature rise: 27C in just two minutes in Spearfish, South Dakota back in 1943.

 

What happened in Lapland was, on the surface at least, not unusual, abrupt short-term weather change possibly caused by a convoluted jet stream. But in a major report this month, the US National Research Council warned that abrupt climate change was already being seen with the collapse of the Arctic sea ice and in extinction rates. The good news, it said, was that most of the extreme climate predictions made over the past decade, such as an upwelling of methane from the bottom of the oceans or a shutdown of the Atlantic conveyor, were extremely unlikely – at least in the medium term. But the message was clear: if temperatures go on rising, expect the unexpected over the next 100 years.

 

The IPCC 5th assessment report, which is considered the consensus of world scientists, was unequivocal that climate change was happening fast. In September, it stated that each of the last three decades had been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than at any preceding decade since measurements started in 1850. The period 1983-2012 was probably the warmest in the past 1,400 years, it said, and both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were losing mass, along with most glaciers worldwide.

 

The Arctic in 2013 saw nowhere near as much sea ice loss as the exceptional 2012 when all records were broken by nearly 20%, but the relatively cool year still witnessed the sixth greatest ice loss since observations began in 1979. All seven lowest minimum ice extents have now occurred in the past seven years. Significantly for sea level rise, IPCC scientists said the loss of ice from Greenland's ice sheet, which is situtated on land, has probably increased from around 34bn tonnes a year in the last decade of the 20th century to 215bn tonnes a year today.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/18/2013-extreme-weather-events

Edited December 18, 2013 by Coast

[Gray-Wolf]

 

Just thought I'd remind the folk who post this measure over summer how it looks over winter?

[Interitus]

 

Just thought I'd remind the folk who post this measure over summer how it looks over winter?

 

Longyearbyen on Svalbard reached 5.6°C on 16/12 which is 19 degrees above the December monthly mean temperature, warmer than the maximum achieved in November and something like reaching 24°C in the UK at this time of year. Above freezing temperatures were recorded from midnight UTC on the 15th/16th to 2pm on the 17th with the minimum 'over night' (perpetual 24 hours darkness at the moment) of the 16th/17th of 2.0°C.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Int!

 

It's good that you post this up as it highlights the 'flip side' of the recent cold plunge to the middle east. I remember some talk of flipping from 'tri lobal' to 'bi lobal' at some point in the late nineties/early noughties meaning that cold/warm air, instead of taking a diagonal tack from source to target, was able to take a more direct route ( N/S or S/N)?

 

So we ship cold rapidly, and without much moderation, to more southerly lats on a more frequent basis. The same is true of more northerly parts receiving southerly blasts?

 

Though not unheard of in the past, on the odd occasion, the recent splurge of yearly exchanges appears 'new' to the science of meteorology ?

 

More signs of more energy available to the system having impact maybe?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sea ice extent has fallen back in the rankings a bit, now 4th lowest on record.

 

 

 

With Hudson Bay largely frozen over, we need to start looking to the Pacific side for any large gains now.

Edited December 19, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been looking at the CT plots and some areas do seem to be suffering presently? As I'd noted earlier in the month the warmth over the Pacific side does seem to be holding things up over there?

[stewfox]

 

Just thought I'd remind the folk who post this measure over summer how it looks over winter?

 

After a promising start something we dont want to see. persistant above average temps in the high artic, all too frequent in recent years

 

Must have a impact on the volume. The core goes into the mini freeze again  not deep freeze

 

cf 1983

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS extent down to 3rd lowest on record

 

 

Barring some losses, I don't think there's much chance of falling lower than that for a while. The Bering sea is still looking quite mild, but Barents and Okhotsk look like cooling down quite a bit in the next week, so something to keep an eye on.

All the while, after the record +ve AO run of the last 2 months, the AO looks like turning more -ve, a good sign for the colder conditions in western Europe.

[knocker]

Thickness

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think some folk need to understand that 'thickness' can be impacted by ice lost from the basin over winter? I posted a graphic a short while ago showing the current losses through Fram, more importantly the thickness of the ice being lost. The feed into Fram includes the thickest ice in the basin. So whilst extent/area increase that ice may not compensate for the thick ice floating down into the Atlantic?

 

When we look at the 80's and 90's data for winter losses through Fram you can appreciate just how this 'drain' impacted the mass loss of sea ice ( from the 20 mil averages to those we see today?) and so how this can drain off valuable 'average thickness' esp. when losing 4m+ ice for it to be replaced by 1m+ ice?

[Gray-Wolf]

 

 

 

Anyone make out how we're doing in this 'recovery year'

 

EDIT: It's been the most interesting of ice years this year right from the crackopalypse event in Feb to us slowly slipping down the 'extent rankings that we see today? With the continued losses from Fram and BFTV advising us to expect a flip in the A.O. it looks like this 'interesting year' is still not done with us!!! 

Edited December 21, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcvl19/vl19-1237-g-grn-n.html

 

It's an odd year indeed! Nares is still in full flow???

 

If you look through the recent images for Greenland you can see a lot of disruption as the ice slips by the shorefast ice heading toward Fram? This is some of the thickest ice in the basin but, to me, it appears badly mangled and able to break into small floes and leave big open leads??

[stewfox]

 

 

 

Anyone make out how we're doing in this 'recovery year'

 

EDIT: It's been the most interesting of ice years this year right from the crackopalypse event in Feb to us slowly slipping down the 'extent rankings that we see today? With the continued losses from Fram and BFTV advising us to expect a flip in the A.O. it looks like this 'interesting year' is still not done with us!!! 

 

In need I had assume 'not much to talk about' winter period doesn't appear to be the case

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like continuation of the strong recovery as shown in your graph earlier

 

 

Sure does Four! 

[Don]

 

Sure does Four! 

 

I bet you're chuffed with that graph GW! 

Edited December 24, 2013 by Don

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Don!

 

I don't think 'chuffed' covers it? It does highlight just how fluid ( pun intended) the situation is? We always reach this 'pinch point' once the basin is fully iced so it was always going to end up 'in the pack' by now? Only growth 'outside the basin' is going to influence the figures from now until melt season begins?

 

The Piomas figures will now be the thing to watch? The seasonal 'thickening of the pack' might work against us here? the thicker ice is well insulated from the cold above and so might not see much in the way of growth?

 

If so we might begin to see the other years plots begin to merge with 2013 on the PIOMAS chart? If so the only thing we then have going for us is the fact that the ice is older and so less saline than FY ice ( and so more resilient to melt?)

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent now down to 2nd lowest for the time of year

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Looking at the pacific side of the Jet it looks like the ridge over Bering is set to maintain and so Bering and Okhotsk might be a little slow in growing their ice this winter? If that proves to be the case then we should expect to hit the lowest extent during Jan?

 

I think this would also have implications for the Piomas figures as this 'average' area of ice will be absent and so the late winter max will be lower than it might have managed with average growth in these areas?

 

Over on our side of the basin the wokingham sat site keeps showing Nares still in flow and ice flowing along Greenlands north shore ( opening leads with the shorefast ice as it goes)

 

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

 

so we appear to still be leaching ice from our thickest reserves?

[keithlucky]

Massive increase in thick ice in western Arctic http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013122618_2013122700_038_arcticictn.001.gif

Edited December 27, 2013 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Go on, say something outrageous...

 

 

I've been having problems with the Tang et al paper about summer mid latitude impacts of sea ice loss. Basically I've been so focused on sea ice that I've a stack of papers I need to re-read on atmospheric impacts, and every time I've tried to 'put pen to paper' regarding Tang et al I find myself needing to re-read several other papers. Unfortunately I've already started to wind down for a Christmas break from work and blogging, so I find that I haven't the motivation.So I've decided that the final post of 2013 will be a look at percentage open water formation, and a clarification of what I think is a tipping point revealed by the PIOMAS data. Regular readers may already have grasped what I've been getting at before, but now is the time to stop hinting (i.e. 'non-linear') and say exactly what I mean.

 

 

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/go-on-say-something-outrageous.html

Edited December 28, 2013 by knocker