Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...

[stewfox]

An increase of just 17k on IJIS yesterday, the lowest increase on that date for the 2002-2013 period

 

 

A 18k reduction today

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

[BornFromTheVoid]

A 18k reduction today

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

 

A 2.6k drop with NSIDC too. Looks like a lot of ice blown back in the Kara and Laptev sea.

[4wd]

There's been a big storm from the North Pacific moved into Bering may have had some effect.
It's pulling a lot of cold air from Siberia too.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There's been a big storm from the North Pacific moved into Bering may have had some effect.

It's pulling a lot of cold air from Siberia too.

 

Perhaps a slight impact on the ESS, but as there's no sea ice in the Bering sea yet and Chukchi hasn't been filled either, it's impact would be minimal.

You can see the ice being driven back by southerly winds in the Kara/Laptev region on the IJIS sat images here though http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

[Gray-Wolf]

 

 

Seem to be losing a lot of our 2m thickness ice through fram? Will this impact the Piomas volume growth over the next few months? ou can see how the 'polar hole' of thin ice allows this thicker stuff to leave the basin.

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS continues to stagnate, with almost no growth in 5 days.

This means that 2012 is the only year that's more than 200k lower than this year, and we're now just 75k and 109k ahead of 2007 and 2009 respectively. We'll probably in back into the lowest 5 on record during the weekend.

 

We should see growth begin again in a few days, as some very cold air is now over parts of Baffin Sea and Hudson Bay, both of which typically experience strong growth during November. Southerly winds will continue to affect the Barents/Kara area and all around the Bering Strait over the next 5 days though, so there is unlikely to be any great improvements in those regions.

[Gray-Wolf]

In the same way that 'rapid re-growth' should be expected in record ice min years surely we should expect to 'end up in the pack' again even when we have held onto high levels of ice over summer? The basin is only so big and so only so much ice can be grown there? Of course we do have Barentsz that is in the basin and could carry a lot more ice than it has recently? Maybe seeing this area getting back to historic ice levels over winter would be as positive sign? Baffin is another area that could carry more ice than it has done of late?

 

If we were really to see a cold Arctic that then extends that cold outward, instead of seeing regional plunges of cold air from the Arctic that leave warm airs advected into the arctic, then that would also be a positive thing. Sadly I see DMI80N temps on the way up again?

[BornFromTheVoid]

A drop of 66k on the NSIDC extent

 

The current stall is looking quite remarkable.

 

 

[Interitus]

Not unprecedented though as 2006 with a considerably higher minimum than this year was the lowest overall by the end of November which just goes to show how fragile this 'recovery' is.

[4wd]

You only need look at the multiyear graphs, you often get a 'shoulder' about now.It's very early in the season to suggest a worrying stall.It's storm related most likely, plus it's already at the point where all the easy bits are mostly frozen.

[mikeworst]

Yes 3 lows moving across the Arctic causing the fall. Will all settle down soon.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Slowdowns in extent growth are common right through Autumn and Winter (as are storms). This slowdown seems a little more significant than previous ones for this time of year. Whether it continues on, or we see a rebound, remains to be seen of course.

[Gray-Wolf]

Nice to note that all parties are saying the same things about the 'slowdown' with one side not trying to use the stall to gain points over the other. Maybe when we see the converse occurring in the basin the more civilised approach will be remembered and adhered to?

[oldsnowywizard]

Certainly a lot of action up there at the moment.. is it good or bad? good points... with the strong winds and precip it should help stack up some of the sea ice. but it will impact sea ice extent values... 

 

It also looks like there could be a huricane up there      is this the end of Svalbard???.. anyway the cold 850s really start as the week progresses more -25s covering most of the basin and also lower 2m temps.... 

 

Also you would expect thinner ice being totally destroyed, mixing of ssts and the fram express transforming to the bullet train... one to keep an eye on... at least its at this point of the season and not in Spring!

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for pointing out the upcoming storm OSW! Central pressure as low as 945mb??? With Fram already shipping out the 2m ice I wonder if this will speed up that outflow? I suppose it depends on just how long the wind blows for but then , once the ice is moving, it's gonna take a lot of stopping.

 

It would be a touch of my sig if the recovery year was undone by the winter losses in volume via ice lost through Fram??? 

 

EDIT: OMG!!!! just looked at CT area data...... can we really be down to second lowest? Where's my 'recovery'????

Edited November 11, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Ten day animation for various parameters.

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic

[mikeworst]

Whatever your view on climate change "either way", the current, rather interesting scenario up north is purely weather related and will resolve itself sooner than later. The Arctic temperatures are not far off typical for this time of year and as soon as the polar bear tumbling high wind situation calms down, normal service will be resumed.

[stewfox]

Whatever your view on climate change "either way", the current, rather interesting scenario up north is purely weather related and will resolve itself sooner than later. The Arctic temperatures are not far off typical for this time of year and as soon as the polar bear tumbling high wind situation calms down, normal service will be resumed.

 

In need re-growth has resumed

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

Well it's thrown up a lot of , to me, interesting things to mull over?

 

Like the 'collapse and spread years ( which Dr Barber went on to quantify with the 'rotten ice' classification?) there seems to be a lot to learn even in periods of 'recovery'.

 

The current flow of ice into Fram will not be staunched by the upcoming forecast weather in fact it looks likely to amplify the losses? If we see such 'beginning' to the season, instead of it appearing late on in the season and giving us the 'cracks and fissures' of last Feb March, then it may well badly impact ice volumes over the winter as the thicker ice flows into the Atlantic (as it did in the 80's)?

 

When we look at the thickness of ice over the pole we can see it is still very thin and easily shattered making transport even faster. If this area is broken and shoved toward Fram then this opens up the Siberian/Beaufort side of the basin to transport along the trans Arctic current? All the ice we 'saved over summer may fall foul of transport out of the basin if current patterns remain (and we have seen quite a stormy year up there which is beginning to look like a pattern shift away from the more settled years.

 

Were there lots of 5m+ ice choking the basin then the risk of rapid flow out of the basin could not materialise but with ice from 50cm to 3m thick? and stacked the way we see it at present? I think we have a very interesting 4 months in front of us!

 

Should we be seeing a return to the pattern of the 80's this could well have consequences for the rest of the planet as we all know what warming rates were like back then? Could the Arctic be signalling the beginning of the end for the conflagration of cold drivers across the globe???

Edited November 12, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

 

When we look at the thickness of ice over the pole we can see it is still very thin and easily shattered making transport even faster. If this area is broken and shoved toward Fram then this opens up the Siberian/Beaufort side of the basin to transport along the trans Arctic current? All the ice we 'saved over summer may fall foul of transport out of the basin if current patterns remain (and we have seen quite a stormy year up there which is beginning to look like a pattern shift away from the more settled years.

 

 

Do we have any thickness charts for the Pole cf recent years. It does appear to be thin.

 

I wonder if a few winter storms are going to have more of a impact this winter with more 'pauses' in re growth.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There's been a good rebound in extent since the weekend. NSIDC extent jumped nearly 400k from the 8th to the 11th, while IJIS jumped 260k during the same time.

 

Looking at the next 3 days, relative warmth and southerly winds look set to dominate the Bering Sea, and Kara sea, but between 4 and 5 days out, some very cold air flood both regions, which may promote a big gains in these areas. Cold air looks set to remain in place in the Baffin sea for the foreseeable future, so strong gains look set to continue there. Meanwhile, bouts of cold air get sent across Hudson Bay, which should help it to see it's first significant gains of the Autumn over the coming 5 days.

[knocker]

Saturday forecast chart.

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been watching this forecast for a few days and wondering just how much it could mess up the pack on the Barentsz/Kara areas and also what the impacts on the current Fram transport would be? (it's bringing us our northerly as well!)

[knocker]

Update

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Yeah. kinda tailed back into mediocrity (compared to post noughtie figures?) . We need to see how the ice behaves over winter and then , and then, hope for a year that helps maintain a recovery? What are the statistics to support that?