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Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Pretty much as I see it Interitus?

 

Mention of thicker ice is no great salve either? When we look at 'transport' from the basin then no matter the thickness the ice is lost. The only saviour are conditions that keep thick ice in the central basin and reduce sunlight and warm water ingress? 2m ice will melt out over an 'average' arctic Summer ( as we have seen repeatedly since 07') so take away all ice of 2m and less and see how much ice you are then left with!

 

Weather is the only thing that can allow the type of summer ice retention we saw last year and , currently, this year is not following that path.

 

The biggest Danger to our ice is a rapid early melt allowing open water for longer across the season.

 

An El Nino summer warming the Autumn atmosphere and an Arctic Ocean struggling to lose heat????? How will that play out?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Not liking the trend I'm seeing for a strong high over the Canadian side of the basin and low pressure over the Eurasian side?

 

The isobars pick out the trans Arctic drift perfectly! With low ice in Greenland/Barentsz  it's a perfect opportunity to shift ice into the Atlantic?

 

I'm sure any move that places our best , thickest ice, in motion toward Fram is not to be welcomed esp. when we have no 'ice dams' to interrupt that flow once in motion?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Images from Wokingham weather already show fragmentation occurring on our side of the geographic pole with severe fragmentation over the edges of Barentsz and into Barentsz. most of the gains in extent are now to be found in this area as ice 'relaxes' into open water prior to melt.

 

As far as 'new ice' is concerned i suspect that march 6th was the maximum extent for ice growth this season with subsequent gains being nothing more than anomalies created by the measuring 'cut off' points of 15 and 30% ?

 

Ice 'grows' into an adjoining grid space by breaking up and drifting off leaving the original square to drop from 100% coverage, but remaining above 15/30% concentration, as the 'open water grids' around it find themself invaded by drifting ice driving their coverage over the 30/15% trigger. 

 

Easy enough to work out how many 'ice' grids of 15 or 30% you can make out of one 100% covered grid once fragmented and on the move.

 

Keep and eye on Greenland/Barentsz sea ice figures over on C.T. to see how this progresses.

 

Be wary of fools trying to tell you that pack ice drifting off toward the temperate zones represents 'healthy grow' and that this behaviour is not , in fact, a signal of spring break up ( as we are now seeing in the Great Lakes also).

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

 

 

Be wary of fools trying to tell you that pack ice drifting off toward the temperate zones represents 'healthy grow' and that this behaviour is not , in fact, a signal of spring break up ( as we are now seeing in the Great Lakes also).

Do you ever read back some of this pompous stuff and think how it looks?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

Do you ever read back some of this pompous stuff and think how it looks?

 

This is the Arctic Ice Discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

This is the Arctic Ice Discussion thread.

 

Be wary of fools trying to tell you

Does not compute.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Still seeing ice levels rise.

 

Both weather and drift off dictates that this will not have long to run so expect to see this turn around next week and , if 'drift off' is a major part of this event, then expect large losses for a few days.

 

With Nino now looking 'nailed on' we should maybe start to consider the possible impacts that this stands to have on a pack still reeling from it's last 18% drop in extent/area?

 

The lessons from the 2010 Nino seem to hint at volume losses and with ice levels so low the ice is already laid thin across the basin. A Nino's impacts and weather patterns of 'average' or 'warm' across the basin this and next year may lead us to a further volume/area/Extent crash? Any repeat of this winters 'warm' winter will further weaken the pack as we went into a full Nino summer in 2015.

 

All this may condition the basin for the return of the 'perfect melt storm in 2017.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

 

Be wary of fools trying to tell you that pack ice drifting off toward the temperate zones represents 'healthy grow' and that this behaviour is not , in fact, a signal of spring break up ( as we are now seeing in the Great Lakes also).

 

We always get spring break up ? Or are you looking at a 2012 set up ?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

We always get spring break up ? Or are you looking at a 2012 set up ?

 

We also , post 07' , get annual posts decrying 'healthy ice levels for the time of year!' when folk are witnessing spring breakup.

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Still seeing ice levels rise.

 

Both weather and drift off dictates that this will not have long to run so expect to see this turn around next week and , if 'drift off' is a major part of this event, then expect large losses for a few days.

 

With Nino now looking 'nailed on' we should maybe start to consider the possible impacts that this stands to have on a pack still reeling from it's last 18% drop in extent/area?

 

The lessons from the 2010 Nino seem to hint at volume losses and with ice levels so low the ice is already laid thin across the basin. A Nino's impacts and weather patterns of 'average' or 'warm' across the basin this and next year may lead us to a further volume/area/Extent crash? Any repeat of this winters 'warm' winter will further weaken the pack as we went into a full Nino summer in 2015.

 

All this may condition the basin for the return of the 'perfect melt storm in 2017.

 

The regrowth is just temporary stuff round the peripheries, temperatures are above average over the basin proper and forecast to remain so, so once the melt kicks in it could drop quite rapidly.

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

The regrowth is just temporary stuff round the peripheries, temperatures are above average over the basin proper and forecast to remain so, so once the melt kicks in it could drop quite rapidly.

Above average? -20c across Greenlandhttp://t.co/y69m1olt9D and the Northern Hemisphere remains very cold From the Great lakes to the Himalayas Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

The regrowth is just temporary stuff round the peripheries, temperatures are above average over the basin proper and forecast to remain so, so once the melt kicks in it could drop quite rapidly.

 

Yes but the basin is still very cold and ice won't start to melt until temps/water temps reach a certain temperature so I don't think an above average winter in terms of temps will have too much of an impact, its what temps are like in late Spring/Summer which will have a big say in things but a rapid melt like in previous years look very likely. 

 

On the basics side of things, then last years quite high extent in the Pacific side of the basin may mean we have thicker ice around this area which will of course be slower to melt but looking at the thicknesses maps then thicknesses look rather unremarkable to say the least so could this be the year where the edge of the ice pack reaches the North Pole from the Atlantic side of the Arctic? And if so, then I bet even 10 years ago, not many people would of predicted that.

 

I think winter extent has little bearing on the summer but its interesting that in general it remained quite low so any late increases will only look good on the eye but means little in the grand scheme of things but its another interesting melt season in store and who knows what it will bring. People have said for the Arctic to "recover" it need a run of cold summers so if this summer turns out to be a cold one, then who knows what may happen by September but as GW rightly says, if we get another 2007 summer, then you do fear a lot for the Sea Ice. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://www.woksat.info/etcwc19/wc19-1441-b-arc.html

 

Rapid fragmentation event over the Beaufort sea. Unlike last feb this will not have a chance to see leads refreeze well so is basically a degradation of the ice there exposing more surface area, than before the event, to the elements driving melt

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Posted
  • Location: Raunds, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Warm if possible but a little snow is nice.
  • Location: Raunds, Northants

http://www.woksat.info/etcwc19/wc19-1441-b-arc.html

 

Rapid fragmentation event over the Beaufort sea. Unlike last feb this will not have a chance to see leads refreeze well so is basically a degradation of the ice there exposing more surface area, than before the event, to the elements driving melt

Do really not see your point. This type of ice movement happens/takes place through all seasons depending on wind direction specifically. Is it unusual?. No because it is just weather and totally unpredictable . Can  modern climate models/guestimates based on unknown parameters /assumptions tell us any more, No they cannot and neither can you.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'd rather go into melt season with a contiguous 3m+ pack than a well fragmented sub 2m one that's for sure! How would you rather see the ice on entering melt season Mike? or does it really not matter???

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Rather warm in the north......

 

I don't think so just less cold than normal

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I wouldn't put too much faith in SST readings from under the ice, their unlikely to be +2C anyway (freezing point of salt water, -2C, plus the +4C anomaly).

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I'd rather go into melt season with a contiguous 3m+ pack than a well fragmented sub 2m one that's for sure! How would you rather see the ice on entering melt season Mike? or does it really not matter???

 

We have not had the depth of cold in the high arctic or surrounding region this winter that's for sure ( much of it going into North America)

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

I would expect the abnormalities to even out and a slow start to the melt season

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well I'm thinking we just about 'peaked' yesterday and the float off is now placing ice into grids that do not register as ice. The only way now is down!

 

Maybe time for Pete to open, and stickie, a new thread?

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