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Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

According to Cryosphere Today, we have a chance of recording the lowest winter sea ice area values for the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Barents Sea and Greenland sea. A shift in winds during March could change this, but something to keep an eye on nonetheless.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Bering looks similar to 1979 and 1982... 

Sea of Okhotsk in 1984 also not far away

Barents agreed very bad compared to other years...

Greenland... not sure low sea ice is a bad thing as most of this ice is flow out of the basin...

 

 

There are also areas using the same data that are doing better than last year...

 

 

GW maybe your provocative post above needs to be amended. It annoys me greatly that you have to revert to posts like that to have a dig at those people who dont agree with your way of thinking..braying recovery indeed!!! whether you like it or not last year was a recovery based on the previous terrible year and even considering the widescale crack event. That recovery was a fact based on the last day of sea ice melt.. for extent, area and thickness. 

 

you know actually I cant be bothered to finish this i cant be arsed to argue... 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Bering looks similar to 1979 and 1982... 

Sea of Okhotsk in 1984 also not far away

Barents agreed very bad compared to other years...

Greenland... not sure low sea ice is a bad thing as most of this ice is flow out of the basin...

 

 

There are also areas using the same data that are doing better than last year...

 

 

While things may change, lets look area by areas that aren't fully frozen over.

 

Region ................... Max so far...............Record High Max ...............Record Low Max

Barents Sea ...........~395,000km2..........~1,550,000km2 ................. ~425,000km2

Chukchi Sea ......... ~575,000km2 ..........~600,000km2.................... ~595,000km2

Sea of Okhotsk ....  ~720,000km2 .........~1,580,000km2 ................ ~740,000km2

Bering Sea ............ ~500,000km2 .........~950,000km2 ................... ~540,000km2

Gulf of St Lawr ...... ~245,000km2 ........ ~300,000km2 ................ .. ~90,000km2

Baffin Sea ............. ~1,205,000km2 ..... ~1,660,000km2 ................ ~995,000km2

Greenland Sea ......~490,000km2 ........  ~965,000km2 .................. ~520,000km2

 

Currently, out of 14 regions, there are

2 higher than last year (Gulf of St Lawrence and Baffin Sea)

5 equal to last year (Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago and Hudson Bay)

7 lower than last year (Arctic Basin, Bering Sea, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Chukchi Sea and Sea of Okhotsk)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks BFTV!, some folk appear more concerned with the barer and not the news so I'm glad you took on the task. The facts are there and the reality is also there ( for anyone willing to witness it). This past year was freakish in that it produced a 'rebound' from the record lows in extent ,area,volume but brought record amounts of energy in the Basin ( which I believe must have impact in the 'odd' weather we've seen in the hemisphere the past 8 months?) . now we face a new melt season with ice extent/Area poorer ( IMHO) than lat year but weather looking more like past years and not 'last' years? 

 

Remember it was an 'Average' summer that brought us the record extent/Area/Volume and a cold year that brought us record energy absorption due to fringe areas being ice free early and open to full summer heat. This year those areas look in worse shape as the Pacific side is hammered and only the US area ( Baffin/St. Lawrence) showing promise.

 

Okhotsk and Bering will be heating nicely by May. Barentsz/Kara/Greenland will be heating nicely by May. Without the cold, stormy conditions of last year the central basin is open for influence from that early melt out/warm up. Eurasia keeps losing its cold so the ground isn't as cold stone solid as it might be so the snow will do one before april is out and warm air from the land will impact. The same with Alaska.

 

This is just new 'run of the mill' stuff. Let's see what that means in term of sea ice?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well when I'm looking at the forecasts for the next couple of weeks I'm tempted to think we are close to ice max over the next couple of days? With the Atlantic airmass set to invade our side of the basin I can't see any further growth here? The Pacific side is the still blighted by the HP there so are we now done with winter? 

 

I certainly did not expect to see ice levels as low as this after all the clamour about 'recovery' before December? It certainly makes me wonder if those folk know what they are talking about at all? I take flak from them for my realism but where are their tales of 'better times' now as we enter into another melt season? a season possibly nino influenced? Are they to promise us another 'cold' season or are they quiet because the odds of another 'average', or warm, season are greater?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Well when I'm looking at the forecasts for the next couple of weeks I'm tempted to think we are close to ice max over the next couple of days? With the Atlantic airmass set to invade our side of the basin I can't see any further growth here? The Pacific side is the still blighted by the HP there so are we now done with winter? 

 

I certainly did not expect to see ice levels as low as this after all the clamour about 'recovery' before December? It certainly makes me wonder if those folk know what they are talking about at all? I take flak from them for my realism but where are their tales of 'better times' now as we enter into another melt season? a season possibly nino influenced? Are they to promise us another 'cold' season or are they quiet because the odds of another 'average', or warm, season are greater?

 

No I'm not quiet. Lets see what happens and no one even you GW expected the vortex to migrate so far south and set up over the eastern side of the states and canada has it did this winter and there lies the reason why we have not seen the level of ice many expected. This doesn't mean that we are going to have an exceptional melt or even an early start. As for a nino influence again forecasts continue to be varied with more going for neutral conditions at this time.

So lets just wait and see before we get further we are doomed posts.

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Well when I'm looking at the forecasts for the next couple of weeks I'm tempted to think we are close to ice max over the next couple of days? With the Atlantic airmass set to invade our side of the basin I can't see any further growth here? The Pacific side is the still blighted by the HP there so are we now done with winter? 

 

I certainly did not expect to see ice levels as low as this after all the clamour about 'recovery' before December? It certainly makes me wonder if those folk know what they are talking about at all? I take flak from them for my realism but where are their tales of 'better times' now as we enter into another melt season? a season possibly nino influenced? Are they to promise us another 'cold' season or are they quiet because the odds of another 'average', or warm, season are greater?

Posted ImageNot to bad for one years growth

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

New data confirms Arctic ice trends: sea ice being lost at a rate of five days per decade

 

The ice-free season across the Arctic is getting longer by five days per decade, according to new research from a team including Prof Julienne Stroeve (Professor of Polar Observation and Modelling at UCL Earth Sciences). New analysis of satellite data shows the Arctic Ocean absorbing ever more of the sun’s energy in summer, leading to an ever later appearance of sea ice in the autumn. In some regions, autumn freeze-up is occurring up to 11 days per decade later than it used to.

 

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/maps-faculty/maps-news-publication/maps1409

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I suspect that once we go sub 1 million we will see a rapid extension of this 5 days Knocks?

 

With a sub million pack we have to accept that most of the basin will be ice free , or sub 1m ice, for the majority of summer?

 

This means a lot of energy to be lost prior to ref-freeze the following winter.

 

Sub 1 million would also mean full Ocean processes , for a period, over the basin at summers end ( in time for the first of the autumn storms) meaning the potential mixing out of any 'cold, fresh' layer left by melt/river run off. This would also delay the onset of melt by reducing freezing point .

 

The next spectre will be the 'new crowd' braying for recovery once we have gone from ice to no ice......... or telling us we probably had no ice in the 1930's ( and bring up the Wakkkadoo Times, back page, from 1934 to prove it!!!)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Warm rivers play role in Arctic sea ice melt

 

The heat from warm river waters draining into the Arctic Ocean is contributing to the melting of Arctic sea ice each summer, a new NASA study finds.

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140305134019.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Cryonews+%28CryoNews%29

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I seem to recall a debate about the near Mediterranean temps some sites were plotting at the McKenzie delta that Aug? If we think about the Russio/Siberian  outlets then we must be seeing rapid changes? With the permafrost retreating in Siberia the River Basins must provide an artery of melted land as the river warmth thaws out the land they run through?

 

The land temps are only just beginning to respond to the loss of sea ice so this is another feed back only just starting to kick in.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilkenny
  • Location: Kilkenny

I seem to recall a debate about the near Mediterranean temps some sites were plotting at the McKenzie delta that Aug? If we think about the Russio/Siberian  outlets then we must be seeing rapid changes? With the permafrost retreating in Siberia the River Basins must provide an artery of melted land as the river warmth thaws out the land they run through?

 

The land temps are only just beginning to respond to the loss of sea ice so this is another feed back only just starting to kick in.

 

Have you any sources for these theories or is it just plain speculation?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

We all watch the 'sources each year???? If you have not been following then look through the archive temps of the Arctic land surfaces and the Arctic Ocean ocean ssts. It is as plain as the nose on your face....... why would you think historical data is nothing more than imagination of one poster? Why ,when the data is all over the web, would anyone fabricate?

 

If you cannot check the data yourself why not P.M. other posters to this thread regarding Arctic Temp anoms esp. since the original record melt out of 07' and see what they can tell you?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Did we just see a century drop on JAXA??? Pretty big for March eh? 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but do we generally see recoveries from such drops in March? First signs of max being reached?

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

the near Mediterranean temps some sites were plotting at the McKenzie delta that AugI remember you banging on about it, one buoy was reading 20C while the rest were about freezing point.The one buoy data was being smeared over a significant area.You insisted it must be real but several of us thought it was likely faulty.Do you really believe one small area could be 20C warmer than the adjacent plot?Even if it were it must be a very localised surface effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Did we just see a century drop on JAXA??? Pretty big for March eh? 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but do we generally see recoveries from such drops in March? First signs of max being reached?

 

Generally not, but I think this year could be the exception.

 

The GFS and ECM have been predicting quite a pattern change across the Arctic over the coming days, with a switch to cold northerlies through both the Barents and Bering seas.

We can see this change at just 2 days out

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

And it continue right out to 5 days ahead at least

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

With both Barents and Bering Seas at record lows, this change, even so late in the season, could still bring some significant gains

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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

Posted ImageIf any record on earth over the last 35 years suggests change , it is this one  Last year I was amongst those celebrating the recovery of the polar ice . Today we are back in record low territory again

 

Last year is beginning to look like the stark anomaly Grey Wolf predicted it would be ...

 

 

ps .. go to source at Cryosphere today for accurate graph .. this one has been corrupted in transfer lol

Edited by be cause
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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

How can you deduce that from a graph which shows ice similar to this time last year

..sorry 4 ..If you read my ps ...the on site graph looks quite different 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Or even and Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.

post-12275-0-25704700-1394667617_thumb.j

post-12275-0-21456900-1394667625_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think folk must realise that what we saw last year was a very favourable 'weather' event hard up against the record lows of the year before. Some posters made use of comparing the record low against last years max which seemed to show a real jump in ice levels. It was not ( as other posters were quick to point out with use of trend graphics).

 

Arctic sea ice is ever more vulnerable as the planet becomes ever warmer. That warmth translates to much warmer temps across the Arctic regions as we have seen most of the winter. Warmer temps over winter directly translates to the ice levels we see today.

 

I am continually reminding folk that 'average weather' , over the melt season, has lead to the past two record lows and that surely 'average weather' is the most common Arctic summer weather that we ought to expect? If this is so then we should also expect very low , or record low, ice levels after most melt seasons?

 

It took a number of years for 07's record low to be near matched/beaten. How long will it take for 2012's similar sized record drop to be matched? If the answer is less years then we should again take serious note.

 

As it is the 07' 'perfect storm' synoptics are a regular Arctic visitor having a 10 to 20 year cycle. The two 'perfect storms' before 07' were only ten years apart ( 87' and 97') and so the earliest return we should expect is in 2017. How would this type of event leave the Arctic? We must remember that the ice will go very quickly imagine the remnant ice in the basin ( all ice over 2m) the majority of that remnant ice would be sub 1m ice surrounded by water. If you had a bath tub full of ice cubes they would remain far longer than a single ice cube in a bath tub would. As such there is a period of ice melt we have yet to witness, or quantify, that is the final drop into near ice free ( sub 1 million) and it may be that when we see a sub 3 million pack at the start of Aug that it would guarantee near ice free by mid sept?

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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

lets dissect this a bit...

 

I think folk must realise that what we saw last year was a very favourable 'weather' event hard up against the record lows of the year before. Some posters made use of comparing the record low against last years max which seemed to show a real jump in ice levels. It was not ( as other posters were quick to point out with use of trend graphics).

 

A record low against a max? not sure you meant that... even so.. a trend i guess you mean over a period of time.. to even out the fact that There was more ice comparing 2012 and 2013... which ever way you paint it .. it is fact.

 

Arctic sea ice is ever more vulnerable as the planet becomes ever warmer.

True ..

 

That warmth translates to much warmer temps across the Arctic regions as we have seen most of the winter.

 

Wrong.. the warmer anomolies was due to weather patterns forcing the really cold air elsewhere...

 

Warmer temps over winter directly translates to the ice levels we see today.

 

Actually considering the not as cold air was elsewhere, the ice isnt doing too badly... if you look at the concentration charts the ice is more concentrated compared with the past two years...due to hudson.. but even the basin not bad...

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

I am continually reminding folk that 'average weather' , over the melt season, has lead to the past two record lows and that surely 'average weather' is the most common Arctic summer weather that we ought to expect? If this is so then we should also expect very low , or record low, ice levels after most melt seasons?

 

We also had the major crack event of last winter... which according to some would be melt out central and equal a lower sea ice level come the end of summer.... and what happened? more multiyear ice. and thicker ice ...

 

It took a number of years for 07's record low to be near matched/beaten. How long will it take for 2012's similar sized record drop to be matched? If the answer is less years then we should again take serious note.

 

maybe...

 

As it is the 07' 'perfect storm' synoptics are a regular Arctic visitor having a 10 to 20 year cycle. The two 'perfect storms' before 07' were only ten years apart ( 87' and 97') and so the earliest return we should expect is in 2017. How would this type of event leave the Arctic? We must remember that the ice will go very quickly imagine the remnant ice in the basin ( all ice over 2m) the majority of that remnant ice would be sub 1m ice surrounded by water. If you had a bath tub full of ice cubes they would remain far longer than a single ice cube in a bath tub would. As such there is a period of ice melt we have yet to witness, or quantify, that is the final drop into near ice free ( sub 1 million) and it may be that when we see a sub 3 million pack at the start of Aug that it would guarantee near ice free by mid sept?

 

wasnt there a perfect storm two years ago as well? .. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Perfect storm 2 years ago? We had a major cyclone in early Aug of 2012 which some folk wrongly tried to blame the record lows of that year on?

 

The 'perfect melt storm' synoptics last the whole of the Melt season and not just 8 days!

 

Currently ice across the basin appear near identical to the start of last year as Chris reynolds nicely illustrate for us;

 

post-2752-0-33459900-1394878441_thumb.pn

 

so it really does look like it will all depend upon how the weather treats the pack over melt season. As with the 07' low it would be odd if we bettered 2012's lows after just 2 years but we will see? The end point will depend on the weather and the odds must stack up for it being an 'average or warm' year over another 'cool' year.

 

 

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Currently ice across the basin appear near identical to the start of last year as Chris reynolds nicely illustrate for us;

 

Posted ImageAll 2013 and 2014.png

 

so it really does look like it will all depend upon how the weather treats the pack over melt season. As with the 07' low it would be odd if we bettered 2012's lows after just 2 years but we will see? The end point will depend on the weather and the odds must stack up for it being an 'average or warm' year over another 'cool' year.

 

Well that chart shows that the ice is thicker on the whole, but unfortunately, extent/area and volume are all down in the rock bottom territory. People arguing the toss over whether the cool Arctic summer was a recovery is silly, it may give hope but it's irrelevant as though it never happened. Any average summer similar to recent years other than 2013 is going to see ice down towards record breaking values again.

Mention in posts of ice in Hudson Bay or St Lawrence - great, it's meaningless.

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