Super typhoon Usagi

[Coast]

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 002 

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Tuesday 17 September 2013

 

 

Tropical Depression USAGI (ODETTE) has slightly gained strength during the past 6 hours at it moves westward slowly across the northern portion of Central Philippine Sea. USAGI (ODETTE) may pose a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan Area this weekend. 

 

 

This depression will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Bicol Region today...and will start to affect Western & Central Luzon including Metro Manila and CaLaBaRZon beginning Thursday thru Saturday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions. 

 

 

http://weather.com.ph/announcements/tropical-depression-usagi-odette-update-number-002

 

Tropical Depression USAGI: Probability of tropical storm winds to 120 hours lead

 

[Coast]

 

 

Tropical Storm Usagi was named Tuesday morning near 130E 18N due south of Okinawa Japan.  The storm currently has winds of 35kts as of this update but due to an abundant amount of available moisture being fed in to the storm, warm sea surface temperatures and reducing vertical wind shear a Typhoon is forecasted within 72hrs.

 

The storm already is bringing a indirect impact across much of the Philippines today. Heavy rainfall brought in by the enhanced monsoon has been triggered across Luzon and Northern Visayas the past several days. Now with the development of Usagi (Odette, local name) the monsoonal enhancement is only expected to increase through the end of the work week.  This will bring up to 50mm an hour likely especially during the afternoon hours. Along with a major threat of flooding and landslides. Most weather models also indicate a stream of moisture over the Manila Metro area by Thursday night in to Friday. This would result in a serious risk of urban flooding.

 

The exact location of where the heaviest rainfall will hit though could waver north and south depending on the exact track Usagi takes this week. At this time the exact track of the storm is split between the various agencies warning on it. The WMO agency JMA has it pushing west skirting the Northern Coast of Luzon at this time. Yet JTWC has it lifting North towards Taiwan by mid-week. The northerly track would be more fitting along with the model consensus. It would also mean a very serious flood threat for much of Taiwan. As we know from storms already this year the Island does a very sufficient job at squeezing out moisture from a Tropical System which results in staggering amounts of rainfall. Trami ended up dropping over 2000mm in one location on the island.  This track seems the more logical at this time given the model agreement.

 

Yet I would not 100% rule out the southerly track either. A high pressure ridge over the Southern Japanese islands could continue to act like a buffer keeping Usagi south and pushing towards Northern Luzon. This is what JMA and PAGASA are both picking up on. The strength of this ridge through the coming days will determine the fate of this storm.  At the very least anyone along the Luzon straight should watch the storm very closely. The next 24hrs a much clearer picture should be painted given the position of the high to the north

 

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2013/09/17/tropical-storm-usagi-moves-towards-luzon-and-taiwan-tuesday-outlook/

 

[Coast]

Already up to a Tropical Storm:

 

 

Tropical Depression “Odette†has intensified into Tropical Storm and would affect Northern Luzon, the weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday. The agency has raised storm signal number 1 over Cagayan including the Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands.

 

PAGASA also said “Odette†is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and would bring light to moderate rains and thunderstorms to the western sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas. As of 10:00 am Tuesday, the center of “Odette†was estimated at 820 east of Tuguegarao City. The system is packing maximum winds of 65 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kilometers per hour.

 

It is forecast to move west at 7 kilometers per hour. Rainfall amount within the 350 kilometer diameter of the storm is estimated at 15 to 30 millimeters per hour, classified as heavy to intense rainfall.

 

 

http://anc.yahoo.com/news/-odette--intensifies-into-tropical-storm-033819124.html

[Coast]

035da905c5dd735f008efeb426c09f84 Edited September 17, 2013 by Coast

[Somerset Squall]

Usagi has been upgraded to a tropical storm with winds now at 40kts. Some shear is affecting Usagi, displacing convection south of the LLCC. Shear is expected to ease as Usagi moves west towards Luzon. The steering ridge to the north is forecast to weaken, forcing Usagi to the northwest towards Taiwan, where landfall is currently forecast for about 4 days time. As Coast's post describes, Usagi is likely to be a typhoon at this point.

On a seperate note, it's interesting to note West Pacific season so far has been much less active than normal in terms of storms that have reached typhoon status. Additionally, there have only been two storms of cat 3+ intensity, which is low for this point in the season.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

On a seperate note, it's interesting to note West Pacific season so far has been much less active than normal in terms of storms that have reached typhoon status. Additionally, there have only been two storms of cat 3+ intensity, which is low for this point in the season.

 

A quiet year all around so far, what's your view on any effects it has on other weather (Atlantic mostly) going into the last part of the year?

[Coast]

 

Sea, land warnings for Tropical Storm Usagi likely

 

 

A sea warning for Tropical Storm Usagi is scheduled to be issued late Thursday, followed by a land warning around noon the next day, according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). The storm, the 19th of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season, is moving toward waters south of the Hengchun peninsula in southern Taiwan, the bureau said Wednesday. It is expected to have its strongest effect on Taiwan from early Sept. 21 to early Sept. 22, said the bureau, which did not rule out the possibility that the storm could make landfall on Taiwan.

 

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Usagi was centered some 1,150 km east-southeast of Eluanbi at the southernmost tip of Taiwan, moving in a westerly direction at a speed of 9 kph, according to the CWB. The storm was packing sustained winds of 90 kph, with gusts of up to 118 kph. The periphery of the storm could bring intermittent rain or thunderstorms to northern and eastern Taiwan and mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan Thursday, the first day of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival holiday break, the bureau said. The storm could also bring showers to areas around Taiwan from Sept. 20-22, it added.

 

 

 

 

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201309180012.aspx

[crikey]

A thorough report 'guys'. Great effort

 

Saw this on the sat'pic today cloud wrapping

 

source

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/asia_IR.html

Edited September 18, 2013 by crikey

[Somerset Squall]

Usagi is a strengthening typhoon. Winds are currently 90kts, cat 2 on SS scale. The typhoon has an increasingly well defined eye flanked by strong banding. Further strengthening is expected as shear remains low, and waters very warm along track. JTWC expect a peak of 115kts (cat 4) as the system approaches southern Taiwan.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Usagi upgraded to typhoon

 

Tropical Storm Usagi continued to strengthen and was upgraded to a typhoon Wednesday, according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). Typhoon Usagi, located 1,120 kilometers southeast of Taiwan as of 8 p.m., was moving in a west-northwesterly direction, at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour, the bureau said. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 118 kph with gusts of up to 115 kph, the CWB said.

 

On its current path, Usagi is expected to make landfall on the Hengchun peninsula on Saturday evening, the bureau said, cautioning residents in south and southeast Taiwan to stay alert. The CWB said it is likely to issue a sea warning between Thursday night and Friday morning and a land warning by Friday noon for Usagi, the 19th storm of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season.

 

 

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201309180035.aspx

[crikey]

A post from Australian weatherzone forum on this event by KEN KATO showing multi-model forecast tracking

 

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1210803/Re_2013_Typhoon_Season_Asia#Post1210803

 

 

 

The global sat pic' is looking particularly good for equatorial convection currently across many regions of the earths midriff

 

 

 

Looking on the sat' pic' looks like there is another TS to follow from behind

ACCESS G hinting  this next one will head toward Japan in about a week 

 

 

source

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/satellite/

Edited September 19, 2013 by crikey

[Somerset Squall]

Usagi has continued to rapidly intensify and is now an 120kt cat 4. Further rapid strengthening is expected as shear remains low and outflow excellent. Usagi is forecast to become the season's and world's first cat 5 of 2013.

Usagi will pass south of Taiwan and then go on to affect south China as ridging to the north pushes Usagi westwards.

Edited September 19, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Sainsbo]

I find it amazing how just two days ago, Usagi was forecast to peak as a weak category 2 storm - 2 days later and it has sustained winds of 160mph. It just goes to show how much we don't know when it comes to forecasting these things.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Sainsbo!

Usagi has bombed further and is now a 140kt cat 5 super typhoon. Usagi has strengthened some 75kts in the last 24hrs, which is seriously fast! I'm on my phone at the moment so can't post an image but this one's a beauty!

[Somerset Squall]

Category 5 Usagi's impressive satellite signature:

 

 

[Coast]

Sure is a biggy!

Super Typhoon Usagi, 'world's strongest storm of 2013', heading for Hong Kong

 

China issues I-class emergency signal ahead of the most powerful storm of the year

 

 

Super Typhoon Usagi, believed to be the most powerful storm on Earth in 2013, was on Friday on course to make landfall just kilometres from Hong Kong, according to storm-track predictions. A warning issued late on Thursday by Hong Kong's Observatory stated the storm, which intensified last night to a super typhoon, will "pose a threat to Hong Kong" on Sunday. Its storm tracker showd the typhoon to be on a direct trajectory toward the city, although it could change direction with two days still to go.  "By that time the weather will deteriorate significantly, with high winds and rough seas," the Observatory said.  "If you are planning to travel out of Hong Kong or [have] other activities [scheduled], please be reminded that changes in the weather may affect your plans."

At noon on Friday the storm was about 690 kilometres northeast of Manila. It is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 18 kilometres per hour across the western North Pacific in the general direction of the Luzon Strait. Winds of 205 kilometers (127 miles) per hour were expected to bring torrential rain and destructive gusts. Philippine weather bureau forecaster Alvin Pura said the super typhoon had gathered strength and speed with gusts reaching 240 kph (150 mph).

 

“It is the strongest typhoon in the west Pacific region this year,†a weather forecaster at the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau said. "Usagi is this year's most powerful tropical storm by wind speed anywhere in the world," Cheng Ming-Dean, director of Taiwan’s Weather Bureau added. The Wall Street Journal reported the super typhoon's winds reached speeds of 160mph on Thursday, making it bigger than Typhoon Utor, which passed within 600km of Hong Kong in August.  An Observatory spokesman said: “By and large typhoons that pass the Luzon Strait have a relatively big impact on Guangdong coastal areas. It was difficult at the present time to estimate whether Usagi would hit Hong Kong head-on, he said, because the typhoon is still a long way from the city.

 

“A slight change of idirection can make a considerable difference in terms of its impact on Hong Kong,†the spokesman explained. Taiwan's authorities urged residents on southern parts of the island to carry out precautionary measures as Usagi approaches. China's state news agency Xinhua reported a "yellow alert" had been issued as the storm approaches.The Beijing National Metoerological Center issued a yellow alert - the third highest in China's four-tier warning system. The State Oceanic Administration (SOA) also initiated an I-class emergency response for the typhoon on Thursday, the highest level on the nation’s maritime disaster response system.

 

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1312965/super-typhoon-usagi-worlds-strongest-storm-2013-heading-hong-kong

 

Edited September 20, 2013 by Coast

[crikey]

Satellite picture of USAGI  20th sept 2013

source

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/asia_IR.htm

 

l

 

 

 

Another news report

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1312965/super-typhoon-usagi-worlds-strongest-storm-2013-heading-hong-kong

 

Edited September 20, 2013 by crikey

[Somerset Squall]

Usagi has lost cat 5 status this morning but remains a powerful 135kt cat 4 super typhoon. Usagi is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC), with two eyewalls evident in satellite imagery. The EWRC is responsible for the slight weakening. After the cycle is complete, Usagi will be interacting with southern Taiwan, which will cause the super typhoon to weaken further. Hong Kong is next in the firing line, though Usagi is not expected to be anywhere near as strong as it is now. Just how strong Usagi will be does depend on how much land interaction there is with Taiwan, and if Usagi recovers at all before landfalling near Hong Kong.

[Cookie]

[lorenzo]

Apologies of posted already, this is pretty great..

 

 

[Gavin Hannah]

Looks set to strike Taiwan head on.

Measures 1000km across and looks set to bring a metre of rain to Taiwan. (half annual rainfall).

bbc.co.uk/news

[cornishbrooksy]

And I'm back!

So this is an interesting one....JTWC consistently (for 3 days now) put this on direct collision with HK.  People starting to take a bit of notice now, but unfortunately a series of wear T8's and a T10 with not much impact last year have meant a lot of people not really concerned for this.

 

From what i can gather it will landfall close or on top of HK...the crucial thing is if it passes to north or south.  If north then we will escape a lot of the damage and it will help.  A pass to the south would mean the right front quadrant bringing a strong risk of storm surge (see Typhoon Wanda, 1962)....and stronger winds.

 

Certainly getting interesting...the clockwise wind movement already seen in local weather indicates we are in the wind field already.  Cloud expected to build later on today with things getting bad tomorrow.

 

T1 warning issued at 10:40am HKT today as soon as it crossed the 800km boundary showing how alert HKO are being with this.  I hope people take this as seriously as they need to.

[cornishbrooksy]

Taken from the first HKO bulletin....note "severe threat to HK" and mentioning its a "mature typhoon, still at Super Typhoon strength" (actually JTWC downgraded it in the last bulletin to Typhoon.

Usagi is a mature typhoon, and has been moving steadilywest-northwest this morning at the intensity of a SuperTyphoon. It will come rather close to the vicinity of thePearl River Estuary on Sunday and Monday and pose severethreat to Hong Kong.  According to the present forecasttrack, local winds are expected to strengthen tonight andtomorrow morning, and the Observatory will issue the StrongWind Signal No. 3 accordingly.  Local weather willdeteriorate significantly with rough seas and squally heavyshowers tomorrow.  Under the effect of the astronomical hightide, storm surge induced by Usagi may also lead to floodingin low-lying areas.  The public should remain vigilant, andtake precautions against strong winds and flooding as earlyas possible.

[Gavin Hannah]

A good youtube video on Usagi.  

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

A good youtube video on Usagi.  

 

Nice video, IBringTheHammer!