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October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition


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Here comes the month of mellow mists and fruitfulness ... and your C.E.T. predictions

 

October CET averages and trivia20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 198520.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 201113.3 ... warmest month 200113.1 ... second warmest month 200513.0 ... third warmest months, 1969 and 200612.7 ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 183112.3 ... tied 12th and warnest of 18th century 173110.9 ... mean 2001-201210.7 ... mean 1981-201010.6 ... mean 1961-199010.3 ... mean 1971-200010.2 ... mean 1901-20009.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2012, also 20129.5 .... mean 1801-19009.4 .... mean 1701-18009.3 .... mean 1659-17007.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 19927.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 19056.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 16926.4 .... second coldest 18175.3 .... coldest 17400.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Here's a graph of the October CET (blue), the 10 year average (red) and the linear trend (black).

 

Posted Image

 

A CET this October of anything less more than 10.3C will produce the highest 10 year mean on record (>11.17C).

 

The correlation between the September CET and October CET is lower than the average monthly correlations, at 0.26. It is still statistically significant, and indicates that cool Septembers are usually followed by cool Octobers, and warm by warm, but the relationship is not as strong as most other months.

 

September looks like finishing in the 13.5-14.3C range at the moment, and over the record, the average October following such Septembers is 10.1C, so below most recent averages. This includes a low of 5.3C in 1740 (lowest on record) and 13.0C in 1969 (joint 3rd highest on record).

 

As of 2012, we're currently on the

longest run of years, 20, without a sub 9C CET. (previous record was 15 years, from 1853-1867)

longest run of years, 69, with the 10 year mean above 10C (previous record was 10 years, from 1830-1839)

longest run of years, 8, with the 10 year mean above 11C. (previous record was 1 year, in 1972)

 

So it seems we're well overdue a run of cold Octobers.

 

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Would love to know what synoptics caused such a low mean in 1740 - indeed 1740 saw a record cold winter... was there a major volcanic eruption which affected things that year??????????

 

Another startling statistic is the incidence of seeing 3 Octobers in 1st, 2nd and 3rd warmest place in the space of just 5 years i.e. 2001-2006 - quite unprecedented.

 

Inded we saw a number of very mild Octobers during the 00's, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.

2007 was preety mild from memory. 2004 about average. 2003 and 2008 were quite chilly though.

 

Its been a long time since we have experienced an appreciably below average October, 1992 was the last one. Perhaps Oct 2013 will do a March 2013 on us - and end a barren period for cold Octobers, just like we ended a long period without a very cold March.

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Would love to know what synoptics caused such a low mean in 1740 - indeed 1740 saw a record cold winter... was there a major volcanic eruption which affected things that year??????????

 

Another startling statistic is the incidence of seeing 3 Octobers in 1st, 2nd and 3rd warmest place in the space of just 5 years i.e. 2001-2006 - quite unprecedented.

 

Inded we saw a number of very mild Octobers during the 00's, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.

2007 was preety mild from memory. 2004 about average. 2003 and 2008 were quite chilly though.

 

Its been a long time since we have experienced an appreciably below average October, 1992 was the last one. Perhaps Oct 2013 will do a March 2013 on us - and end a barren period for cold Octobers, just like we ended a long period without a very cold March.

What a strange year regarding temperatures 1740 was, after the bone chilling start September was rather mild with a cet of 14.0 only to followed with an October cet of 5.3.As you say DM the synoptic charts for that year would be fascinating.

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