October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Now I can better appreciate how you can record a record high CET October like 2001 but still have a dull wet month. The constant heavy curtain of cloud helps keep the over night temps up very nicely!

Edited October 21, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 21st

 

1.9c above average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a min of 13.1C and maxima likely to be in the mid 17s, we'll likely see an increase to 13.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.3C to the 23rd (14.0)

13.2C to the 24th (10.9)

13.2C to the 25th (13.8]

13.2C to the 26th (13.0)

13.1C to the 27th (10.9)

13.0C to the 28th (10.1)

12.8C to the 29th (7.8]

 

I'd say 12.2 to 13.2C before corrections at this stage, and then 11.7 to 13.1C after corrections.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 6z ensemble mean afer would take it to.

 

22nd 13.2 (15.3)

23rd 13.2 (14.8 )

24th 13.2 (12.2)

25th 13.2 (13.75)

26th 13.2 (12.8 )

27th 13.1 (11.5)

28th 13.1 (11.0)

29th 12.9 (7.5)

30th 12.7 (8.25)

31st 12.6 (9.0)

 

And I agree with BFTV's assessment of end of month above. About 50/50 of finishing in the top ten warmest.

Edited October 22, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer of 95]

How's the CET minimum for this month? Its heading for a record high round here, will beat 2001 and 2005 unless we get a run of cool nights soon....

[BornFromTheVoid]

How's the CET minimum for this month? Its heading for a record high round here, will beat 2001 and 2005 unless we get a run of cool nights soon....

 

Currently at 10.4C, which is 2.7C above the 1st to 22nd average and 0.6C higher than September finished on.

Don't think it will change too much by the 31st, plenty of very mild nights coming up, which may be offset by cooler nights in the last few days of the month.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Currently at 10.4C, which is 2.7C above the 1st to 22nd average and 0.6C higher than September finished on.Don't think it will change too much by the 31st, plenty of very mild nights coming up, which may be offset by cooler nights in the last few days of the month.

Highest Oct min on record is 10.2 in 2001. Mt estimate sees it at 10.0 at the end of month so we would likely finish in the top 5 highest minimums. Where as the maximums, while still warmer than average, would just sit in the top 20 warmest.

[reef]

The milder than average nights are a very notable feature of this month. At present the mean min temp here 10.6C, exactly the same as September finished on. The record here set back in 2001 is 11.0C, which is definitely under threat if we keep getting nights like last night. The mean max doesn't look like threatening the record due to the run of 'cooler' days mid-month, but its still only 0.5C from the record at the moment.

 

Its a shame it has been such a dull, wet month. I would have much preferred a month like 2007 - warmer than average (not as excessively as this month), but very dry and sunny.

 

CET-wise it'll be interesting to see if it does get cooler in the final few days. If not then a top 5 warmest month cant be ruled out (12.9C required).

Edited October 22, 2013 by reef

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.2 to the 22nd  +2.1 anomaly.

 

Min today of 12.2 and Max around 15 the CET should stay on 13.2.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days then the GFS 0z ensemble mean after gives.

 

23rd 13.2 (13.6)

24th 13.1 (11.2)

25th 13.2 (14.4)

26th 13.2 (12.5)  +2.2 anomaly

27th 13.1 (11.5)

28th 13.0 (10.75)

29th 12.8 (7.5)

30th 12.7 (8.0)

31st 12.6 (9.5)  +1.9 anomaly

 

Very similar to yesterday. This calculation would end up with an End of month Min CET of 9.9, and Max CET of 15.2.

Edited October 23, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

I agree with remaining on 13.2C tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.1C to the 24th (10.5)

13.2C to the 25th (14.1)

13.2C to the 26th (13.7)

13.1C to the 27th (11.8]

13.1C to the 28th (11.5)

12.9C to the 29th (8.2)

12.8C to the 30th (10.2)

 

I'd narrow the range before corrections to 12.3C to 13.1C, and so 11.8C to 13.0C after corrections.

 

 

[March Blizzard]

My 10.3C guess is looking very sorry for itself now  . Must do better...

[BornFromTheVoid]

For the period of the 1st to the 22nd, we're currently the 10th warmest on record. Surprisingly, the two warmest for this period, 1921 (14.3) and 1959 (14.0) don't appear in the top 5 for October as a whole, instead finishing the month as (currently) 6th and 8th warmest, with final values of 12.8C and 12.6C respectively.

Edited October 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[SomeLikeItHot]

Its interesting to note that 1921 went from an October CET of 12.8 to a November one of 4.6 the second largest October to November change.

The larger one being 1807 when it dropped from 11.4 to 2.9.

[Isolated Frost]

Here, the average maximum has only been 1c above the average, but the minima is currently running at +3.3c the average, so extremely mild nights. So much so that only 3 of the 22 minimum temperatures have been below the average of 6.2c!

Edited October 23, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Relativistic]

Was surprised to see that it was 5.7C at 6am this morning. Surprised in late October at a temperature that's not even sub 5C. That's how mad this month has been for minima.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.2 to the 23rd  + 2.1 anomaly

 

Min today of 5.2, and max around 15, should see a fall to 13.1 today.

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that would see

 

24th 13.1 (10.1)

25th 13.1 (14.2)

26th 14.1 (13.5)

27th 13.1 (11.9)

28th  13.0 (11.5)

29th 12.9 (7.75)

30th 12.7 (7.0)

31st 12.5 (8.0) +1.9 anomaly.

 

Enembles firming on a cooler dip at the end of month which should pull th CET down slightly. I would estimate the likely pre correction range at 12.3 - 12.9, Post correction 11.9 - 12.8.

Edited October 24, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minimum of 5.2C and maxima in the 15s, a drop to 13.1C is very likely tomorrow.

 

With the 12z GFS, the CET is then around

 

13.2C to the 25th (14.5)

13.2C to the 26th (14.3)

13.1C to the 27th (11.6)

13.1C to the 28th (10.8]

12.9C to the 29th (7.8]

12.8C to the 30th (9.5)

12.7C to the 31st (11.8]

 

Chances of a 10 top month growing slimmer.

Edited October 24, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 24th

 

2.1c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.1 to the 24th. + 2.1 anomaly

 

Min today of 10.0 and max around 17.5 Should remain on 13.1 tomorrow.

 

Met forecasts  for 5 days and the GFS ensemble mean afterwards gives

 

25th 13.1 (13.75)

26th 13.2 (13.0)

27th 13.1 (12.25)

28th 13.1 (11.7) + 2.3 anomaly

29th 13.1 (9.0)

30th 12.8 (7.75)

31st 12.7 (9.75)  + 2.0 anomaly

 

 

So likely range still I would put at 12.4 - 12.9, with 12.0 - 12.8 after corrections.

Edited October 25, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 10.0C and maxima likely to reach the mid 17s, we should remain on 13.1C on tomorrows update.

 

13.2C to the 26th (14.6)

13.2C to the 27th (12.3)

13.1C to the 28th (11.5)

13.0C to the 29th (8.0)

12.8C to the 30th (9.7)

12.8C to the 31st (10.8]

 

Agreed with the final figure after corrections. 

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 25th

 

2.1c above average

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 12.7C, while maxima look like reaching the high 15s, so an increase to 13.1C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

 

13.1C to the 27th (12.0)

13.1C to the 28th (12.6)

13.0C to the 29th (8.4)

12.8C to the 30th (8.9)

12.8C to the 31st (11.0)

 

I'd say 12.5 to 12.9 before corrections, 12.0 to 12.8 after.

 

0.1C short of the daily record yesterday.

[Summer Sun]

Increase to 13.2c to the 26th

 

2.2 above average

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A min of 9.7 and maxima in the mid 14s today, should put the CET back to 13.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

13.1C to the 28th (11.4)

12.9C to the 29th (8.7)

12.8C to the 30th (8.8]

12.7C to the 31st (10.9)

 

No lower than 12.6C before corrections I'd say, which puts my 12.0C guess out of the running!

[Relativistic]

Increase to 13.2c to the 26th2.2 above average:)

And why exactly does this 0.1C increase make you happy? I don't know how people can like such mild weather. It normally comes with permanent cloudcover, these same people complain when it's constantly cloudy in Summer. I just don't get it.For me though I don't mind the cloudcover, it's the mildness that is rubbish.