October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Relativistic]

Yeah July, August and September were filled with big promises of big cooldowns even in the reliable timeframe only for yet more warmth to occur in the end.

Yes, it was horrible to be let down like that.

[Scorcher]

Nevertheless as summer blizzard pointed out a few days ago, you can still get a warm October after a cool start to the month- as 2005 showed. I doubt many expected the 2nd warmest October on record after the first 3 days. There was also a slightly cooler period just after midmonth but then the last week was again warm.

 

It's surprising how often the last week of October has been warm in the last few years. 2011 had a warm end to the month along with 2009, 2006 and 2007 was quite mild too at times. Of course looking back as far as 2001 there was quite a notable warm spell in the final week if I remember rightly.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 5th

 

3.2c above average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nevertheless as summer blizzard pointed out a few days ago, you can still get a warm October after a cool start to the month- as 2005 showed. I doubt many expected the 2nd warmest October on record after the first 3 days. There was also a slightly cooler period just after midmonth but then the last week was again warm.

 

It's surprising how often the last week of October has been warm in the last few years. 2011 had a warm end to the month along with 2009, 2006 and 2007 was quite mild too at times. Of course looking back as far as 2001 there was quite a notable warm spell in the final week if I remember rightly.

 

While the last few years have had some mixed final weeks, such as the 14.2C in 2002, and the 5.6C in 2008, there has been a remarkable increase in the long term CET for the final week of October, with the 30 year mean (red) increasing by almost 2C since the mid 20th century, from 7.7C in 1950 to 9.5C in 2012.

 

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.4c to the 5th

 

3.2c above average

 

with a min today of 8,4 and a max around 18.5 there should be a fall to 15.1 tomorrow.

 

Taking Met forecasts for 5 days and the GFS ensemble mean after that would give

 

6th 15.1 (13.5)

7th 15.1 (15.3)

8th 15.2 (15.6) +3.0 anomaly

9th 14.9 (12.5)

10th 14.3 (8.9)

11th 13.7 (8.0)

12th 13.5 (10.5)

13th 13.2 (9.5)  +1.35 anomaly

...

16th 12.5   +1.0 anomaly

.. .

21st 11.9 +0.7 anomaly

 

So cooling off rapidly, and I would say if it follows something closer to the ECM op we would be close to average by the 20th which would be quite remarkable given forecasts 48 hours ago.

[Isolated Frost]

Here in Durham, the first 5 days of October have been 1c warmer than the last 20 of September, and over half a degree above September's value of 12.75c. The next few days look average if not slightly warmer than usual, before a steady drop to mid-month.

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.1 to the 6th.  +2.9 anomaly

 

Min today of 12.3 and max of 19ish will take it to 15.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5days then the GFS 0z ensemble mean then has it

 

7th 15.2 (15.4)

8th 15.2 (15.2) +3.0 anomaly

9th  14.9 (12.3)

10th 14.2 (8.2)

11th 13.7 (8.8 )

12th 13.4 (10.0)

13th 13.1 (9.3)

14th 12.8 (9.5)

15th 12.6 (9.5)   +1.0 anomaly

..

20th 12.1   + 0.8 anomaly

..

22nd 11.8 +0.7 anomaly

Edited October 7, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

15.1 to the 6th.  +2.9 anomaly

 

Min today of 12.3 and max of 19ish will take it to 15.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5days then the GFS 0z ensemble mean then has it

 

7th 15.2 (15.4)

8th 15.2 (15.2) +3.0 anomaly

9th  14.9 (12.3)

10th 14.2 (8.2)

11th 13.7 (8.8 )

12th 13.4 (10.0)

13th 13.1 (9.3)

14th 12.8 (9.5)

15th 12.6 (9.5)   +1.0 anomaly

..

20th 12.1   + 0.8 anomaly

..

22nd 11.8 +0.7 anomaly

 

Hmm maybe my 11.1c punt won't be far off after all

[BornFromTheVoid]

Most likely on 15.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z op run GFS has the CET at

 

15.3C to the 8th (15.7)

14.9C to the 9th (11.5)

14.2C to the 10th (8.4)

13.8C to the 11th (9.9)

13.5C to the 12th (10.1)

13.3C to the 13th (11.4)

13.2C to the 14th(11.0)

 

 

CET to the 6th

 

[Relativistic]

Hmm maybe my 11.1c punt won't be far off after all

Well we saw in September how quickly things can change again so I wouldn't be so sure yet! With such a warm start this month has the potential still to return a very high CET value. Edited October 7, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.2 to the 7th   + 3.0 anomaly

 

Min today of 13.2 and max of around 18.5 likely to see a rise to 15.3 tomorrow.

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean afterwards would give.

 

8th   15.3 (15.9)

9th   15.0 (12.7)

10th 14.3 (8.0)

11th 13.8 (9.3)

12th 13.6 (11.0)

13th 13.3 (9.5)

14th 13.0 (9.5)

15th 12.8 (10.5)  +1.2 anomaly

...

20th 12.2   + 1.0 anomaly

..

23rd 11.9   + 0.8 anomaly.

 

So cooled off a long way from where we were but still going to take another cold shot in the last third of the month to reach average or below.

Edited October 8, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Scorcher]

Looks like it will be heading down after today, but nevertheless it has been an exceptionally warm first week- does anyone know where it ranks at 15.2C?

[SomeLikeItHot]

Looks like it will be heading down after today, but nevertheless it has been an exceptionally warm first week- does anyone know where it ranks at 15.2C?

Equal 5th I think, although that might sink  after corrections. I make the warmest first weeks of Oct as

 

 

1959  16.6

1921  16.1

2011  15.9

1908  15.4

1985  15.2

2013  15.2

1825  15.0

1949  15.0

[SomeLikeItHot]

Incidentally those months finished at

 

1959 12.6

1921 12.8

2011 12.6

1908 11.8

1985 11.0

1825 10.8

1949  11.7

 

So none below average as you would expect with a warm start, but equally interesting none in the top five at end of month.

[Weather-history]

Incidentally those months finished at 1959 12.61921 12.82011 12.61908 11.81985 11.01825 10.81949  11.7 So none below average as you would expect with a warm start, but equally interesting none in the top five at end of month.

Well not quite true because October 1921 was the warmest October on record for CET when Manley constructed the table and 1959 was in the top 5, the fact is that they have dropped out of the top 5 in recent times.

[reef]

Here in Hedon it's the second warmest 1st-8th October period in 34 years with a mean temp of 15.4C (+3.1C). The only year with a higher mean was 2011 which saw a value of 15.6C, so very close.

 

A mean for the remaining 23 days of 9.5C would be required for us to reach the 1981-2010 average. 10 out of the last 34 years have achieved this. A mean equal to the last 23 days of October 1992 would give a mean for the month of 8.8C, so below average cant be ruled out yet.

 

I imagine the CET zone will be rather similar.

Edited October 8, 2013 by reef

[Isolated Frost]

Indeed, an extremely warm start, the first 8 days in October were warmer than the first 8 of September here in Durham; which I presume is not a regular occurence.

Getting much cooler up here though- with temperatures at day hovering around 10c and nighttime temperatures returning to average over the next few days; I'd imagine with the influence of a cooler NE/E wind more prone to attack S England w/ the proximity of the high for northern areas apparent, the CET may well drop down more than the UK average.

[Isolated Frost]

First 7 days here in October had an anomaly of +4.4c! The average minimum was in fact 5.5c above the usual; this is going to take a huge hit, especially if tonights EC verifies (or comes very close to).

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 8th 3.1c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.3c to the 8th 3.1c above average

 

Min today of 10.9 and Max looks to be about 15. Should see a fall to 15.0

 

Met forecasts for 5 days then GFS 0z ensemble mean gives.

 

9th 15.0 (13.0)

10th 14.4 (8.6)

11th 14.0 (10.4)

12th 13.8 (11.7)

13th 13.6 (10.4)

14th 13.3 (9.5)

15th 13.1 (11.0) +1.5 anomaly

...

20th  12.7   +1.4 anomaly

...

24th 12.3 +1.2 anomaly

 

A bit warmer than yeserday notably the met forecasts lifted the minimums in the short term, while the GFS ensembles have a majority of  paths retuning to warmer weather (slightly above average) in the period 16-21st. Slightly above average will of course still drop the running CET from where is currently.

[Stu_London]

Min today of 10.9 and Max looks to be about 15. Should see a fall to 15.0

 

Met forecasts for 5 days then GFS 0z ensemble mean gives.

 

9th 15.0 (13.0)

10th 14.4 (8.6)

11th 14.0 (10.4)

12th 13.8 (11.7)

13th 13.6 (10.4)

14th 13.3 (9.5)

15th 13.1 (11.0) +1.5 anomaly

...

20th  12.7   +1.4 anomaly

...

24th 12.3 +1.2 anomaly

 

A bit warmer than yeserday notably the met forecasts lifted the minimums in the short term, while the GFS ensembles have a majority of  paths retuning to warmer weather (slightly above average) in the period 16-21st. Slightly above average will of course still drop the running CET from where is currently.

Interestingly, the 17th September 2013 was recalibrated down to 9.9C, so we are not looking for our first sub 10C day of the Autumn/winter period.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd agree that we'll be on 15.0C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

14.4C to the 10th (8.5)

14.0C to the 11th (10.0)

13.8C to the 12th (11.8]

13.5C to the 13th  (9.9)

13.2C to the 14th (10.0)

13.0C to the 15th (10.2)

12.8C to the 16th (9.8]

 

If we are on 13.0C to the 15th, for the remainder of the month we'd have to average:

 

11.1C/day to reach 12.0C

9.2C/day to reach 11.0C

8.6C/day to reach 10.7C (81-00 average)

8.4C/day to reach 10.6C (61-90 average)

7.7C/day to reach 10.2C (1901-2000 average)

7.3C/day to reach 10.0C

5.3C/day to reach 9.0C

3.4C/day to reach 8.0C

 

Given that the coldest final 16 days of October was 4.0C back in 1895 and 1926, we can effectively rule out anything below 8.5C.

Something a little peculiar, is that the top 5 coldest last 16 days of October all occurred between 1880 to 1926...

 

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.0 to the 19th. + 2.9 anomaly

 

min today of 6.1 and max of around 11.5, should see a fall to 14.4 tomorrow.

 

MEt forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean would then give.

 

10th 14.4 (8.8 )

11th 14.1 (10.8 )

12th 13.9 (11.9)

13th 13.6 (10.5)

14th 13.4 (10.4)

15th 13.1 (9.5)

16th 13.0 (11.0)

...

20th 12.9   + 1.6 anomoly

...

25th 12.5 +1.5 anomoly

 

Notable that the colder ensembles are being reduced in more recent runs, two days ago the 20th was forecast as around 12.4. The short term has been right on forecast, so it appears to be mostly in the ensembles for 15-20th.

Edited October 10, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[March Blizzard]

14.4C to the 10th.

[SomeLikeItHot]

14.4C to the 10th.

a  +2.3 anomaly Min today of 7.5 and max around 140, so a fall to 14.1 likely tomorrow. MEt forecasts for 5 days then the GFS 0z Ensemble after that would take it to. 11th 14.1 (10.8 )12th 13.9  (11.4)13th 13.6 (10.8 )14th 13.4 (10.3)15th 13.2 (10.1)16th 13.0 (10.8 ) +1.5 anomaly17th 13.0 (12.3)18th 13.0 (13.0)19th 12.9 (12.5)20th 12.9 (11.5) +1.6 anomaly...26th 12.2 +1.3 anomalySo warmer than average still very much favoured going to take quite a cool spell in the last 3rd of the month to hit sub 10, but large swings are certainly still possible. Edited October 11, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot