October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Relativistic]

Oh dear, looks like we could be heading for a potential record breaker to rub some salt in the wound.

[Roger J Smith]

Life is good for me and Craig Evans.

Edited October 4, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

Be alright, last third will either be dominated by HP with low nightime minima, or the high will be further West with a scandi trough dropping south giving maxes of 8c and mins of freezing- soon clawling lost ground back- my guess wont be far off, as it wasn't in sept, in fact it was almost bang on without correction but this time the correction might help me.

Oh dear, looks like we could be heading for a potential record breaker to rub some salt in the wound.

[Relativistic]

Be alright, last third will either be dominated by HP with low nightime minima, or the high will be further West with a scandi trough dropping south giving maxes of 8c and mins of freezing- soon clawling lost ground back- my guess wont be far off, as it wasn't in sept, in fact it was almost bang on without correction but this time the correction might help me.

I really hope you are right.

[feb1991blizzard]

I really hope you are right.

 

Even if I am not, its going to be at least the 20th before you can say for sure, if we are 2c above with s*** output then its over but we are that bit nearer to winter then so less time to wait before something decent does happen!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Current outputs are still consistent with my prediction of 12.2C since I went for generally warm weather during the first two-thirds of the month (albeit rarely exceptionally so) and then a cold last third with high pressure mostly to the west and north-west of Britain.  If we get a mean of 15C up to the 20th October and then a mean of 7C from the 21st-31st then the final figure would come out at 12.2.  However, I'm relying on that colder last third of the month coming off- there's more chance of the CET ending up higher than 12.2, rather than lower, in my opinion.

[March Blizzard]

Current outputs are still consistent with my prediction of 12.2C since I went for generally warm weather during the first two-thirds of the month (albeit rarely exceptionally so) and then a cold last third with high pressure mostly to the west and north-west of Britain.  If we get a mean of 15C up to the 20th October and then a mean of 7C from the 21st-31st then the final figure would come out at 12.2.  However, I'm relying on that colder last third of the month coming off- there's more chance of the CET ending up higher than 12.2, rather than lower, in my opinion.

Surely a mean of 15C up to the 20th is a very tall order? I personally can't see such warmth sustained for so long in October.

[Summer Sun]

Another big rise today up-to 15.6c to the 4th

 

3.4c above average

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say that TWS's entry was probably the shrewdest entry of the whole lot at the time but something told me not to change mine and now I don't think I will be far out, another reason was these big corrections nowadays so if its 0.4 below, the chances are I win!

Edited October 5, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[SomeLikeItHot]

Interesting don't have time too  update, just note that if something close to the current ecm verifies (and it looks to have reasonable ensemble support) then the forecasts to mid month are going to drop dramatically.

[March Blizzard]

I have to say that TWS's entry was probably the shrewdest entry of the whole lot at the time but something told me not to change mine and now I don't think I will be far out, another reason was these big corrections nowadays so if its 0.4 below, the chances are I win!

I always factor in a downward correction in my estimations. I guess what I think it will end up as and take 0.2C off it to get my final figure.

[March Blizzard]

Interesting don't have time too  update, just note that if something close to the current ecm verifies (and it looks to have reasonable ensemble support) then the forecasts to mid month are going to drop dramatically.

I always considered the forecasts to be a bit ambitious, not a knock on those doing them as they were only going off what the models were showing. We've got to remember that it's October, not July. There is always a better than 50% chance of cool weather making a sudden appearance at this time of year.BTW, I enjoy yours and BFTV's frequent contributions to these threads. Much appreciated.

[SomeLikeItHot]

 

I always considered the forecasts to be a bit ambitious, not a knock on those doing them as they were only going off what the models were showing. We've got to remember that it's October, not July. There is always a better than 50% chance of cool weather making a sudden appearance at this time of year.BTW, I enjoy yours and BFTV's frequent contributions to these threads. Much appreciated.

 

Only done this very roughly but If the ecm mean verified I think we would be around 12.8 mid month compared with the near 15 that the GFS ensembles were indicating yesterday (and I suspect they wouldn't be too much lower today ).

 

And thanks, I started doing it just as a way of tracking how much the forecast means differed from reality at least in this one dimension (temperature).  I force myself to use the same method so its as objective as possible and doesn't have any of my personal bias in it. Also it means I  can blame the models not myself if they are wrong!

Edited October 5, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Relativistic]

BTW, I enjoy yours and BFTV's frequent contributions to these threads. Much appreciated.

Yes I agree to that. I really enjoy this thread and you guys are superb. Edited October 5, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 12.0C, while maxima reached around 18C, so a decrease to 15.5C on tomorrows update is likely.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at:

15.2C to the 6th (13.8]

15.2C to the 7th (15.1)

15.3C to the 8th (15.6)

14.9C to the 9th (11.6)

14.1C to the 10th (7.6)

13.6C to the 11th (8.1)

13.3C to the 12th (9.8]

 

2C knocked off the CET in 4 days if this verified, from a 4 day average of 15.5C, to 4 day average of  9.3C. Not quite a shock to the system, but we'll certainly notice the chill!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Surely a mean of 15C up to the 20th is a very tall order? I personally can't see such warmth sustained for so long in October.

I think if we'd kept mainly southerly winds as per my original prediction then 15C for 1st-20th October would have been achievable, though certainly exceptional.  However, with the models having shifted to showing a northerly blast on the 10th with temperatures subsequently no higher than average (and quite possibly staying on the low side) a mean of anywhere near 15C to the 20th is now looking extremely unlikely.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

Is it me or were some people too quick with their assumptions? It is only the 5th and not the 25th. We could still end up being below average, it's not improbable.

Look at October 1926

CET trackometer

1. 11.8

2. 12.8

3. 13.7

4. 14.4

5. 14.3

6. 14.3

7. 14.2

8. 14.2

9. 13.8

10. 13.3

11. 12.9

12. 12.8

13. 12.8

14. 12.8

15. 12.4

16. 12.1

17. 11.8

18. 11.3

19. 10.8

20. 10.5

21. 10.1

22. 9.9

23. 9.6

24. 9.3

25. 9.1

26. 8.9

27. 8.7

28. 8.6

29. 8.5

30. 8.3

31. 8.1

I'm not saying it will happen but we are at the time of year where a chilly spell can inflict damage to a running CET value.

[Isolated Frost]

That's why I always give my prediction as soon as the thread is made and stick by it- you do realise the tendency for people to go with the NWP output for the first few days of the month and go by that to a large extent; I'm thinking 11c might be on the low side simply due to the strength of this start, but not a clue after that.

 

October is a great month; the first 5 days are on average much warmer than the last 5 and for that reason, much trickier to predict.

[feb1991blizzard]

That's why I always give my prediction as soon as the thread is made and stick by it- you do realise the tendency for people to go with the NWP output for the first few days of the month and go by that to a large extent; I'm thinking 11c might be on the low side simply due to the strength of this start, but not a clue after that.

 

October is a great month; the first 5 days are on average much warmer than the last 5 and for that reason, much trickier to predict.

 

Yes but whatever method you use, be it pure NWP, teleconnections, pattern matching or anything else scientific, the later you leave it then the more info you have, I haven't set the world alight with my CET predictions, been unlucky a couple of times, but surely you give yourself a better chance the later you leave it, there is a chance I may now be too HIGH, which you would not have believed possible only 36 hours ago!!!

[SomeLikeItHot]

Is it me or were some people too quick with their assumptions? It is only the 5th and not the 25th. We could still end up being below average, it's not improbable.Look at October 1926CET trackometer1. 11.82. 12.83. 13.74. 14.45. 14.36. 14.37. 14.28. 14.29. ....

.....31. 8.1I'm not saying it will happen but we are at the time of year where a chilly spell can inflict damage to a running CET value.

That's quite a turn around!

 

Still we were looking at models predicting much higher in the reasonably reliable time frame (ie less than 7 days and with broad agreement) until yesterday and  with no clear signs of a break down.

 

A good reminder that sometimes the reliable is very short range.

[summer blizzard]

That's why I always give my prediction as soon as the thread is made and stick by it- you do realise the tendency for people to go with the NWP output for the first few days of the month and go by that to a large extent; I'm thinking 11c might be on the low side simply due to the strength of this start, but not a clue after that. October is a great month; the first 5 days are on average much warmer than the last 5 and for that reason, much trickier to predict.

Agreed, if you think you have a method which works then stick with it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It was watch x-factor or play with the CET data.... here's what I came up with.

 

 

A more recent example, to add to Weather-history's, of a month that started off very mild and quickly cooled, is 1983.

 

1st    14.6

2nd   15.1

3rd    15.4

4th    16

5th    15.7

6th    15.2

7th    14.9

8th    14.5...

15th  13.1...

20th  12.4...

25th  11.3

31st  10.5

 

 

[Relativistic]

Yes but whatever method you use, be it pure NWP, teleconnections, pattern matching or anything else scientific, the later you leave it then the more info you have, I haven't set the world alight with my CET predictions, been unlucky a couple of times, but surely you give yourself a better chance the later you leave it, there is a chance I may now be too HIGH, which you would not have believed possible only 36 hours ago!!!

Now a turnaround might happen we shouldn't get carried away, we could quite easily get another one soon after! Edited October 6, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Lettucing Gutted]

Now a turnaround might happen we shouldn't get carried away, we could quite easily get another one soon after!

Yeah July, August and September were filled with big promises of big cooldowns even in the reliable timeframe only for yet more warmth to occur in the end.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Craig Evans

[feb1991blizzard]

Now a turnaround might happen we shouldn't get carried away, we could quite easily get another one soon after!

 

Yes, although the deeper you go into the month, the harder a big deficit is to claw back.