South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 17/09/13 ------------>

[Mark Neal.]

I think the northern parts of the region took the lions share of the sun today. Gorgeous here and at 23C nice and warm too.

Better chance for the south tomorrow with a more continental flow. Fog might be an issue too.

& us westerners, sun broke through at 8am, was wall to wall sunshine for much of the day,.high of 23.7c. 

[HammerJack]

Although it's been on the warm side this weekend - temps reaching around 18 - it has been a disappointingly cloudy couple of days. Had breakfast at the Shard this morning; the views from the 32nd floor really are lovely, and I viewed the greyish gloom as autumnal despite the reasonable temperatures outside. From the train, we could see the top part of the Shard was shrouded in cloud, so perhaps the 32nd floor was the better choice rather than the top!

2013-09-22 09.07.49.jpg 2013-09-22 10.01.21.jpg

2013-09-22 10.07.01.jpg 2013-09-22 10.28.52.jpg

lovely pictures ðŸ‘. When I drove over Lambeth Bridge this morning at 7.30ish, the top third was covered in fog, glad it cleared in time for you.

Been cloudy as anything today, not even a glimps. But come 6.30 as the sun is setting the clouds break up. Hey - Ho at least I can get the telescope out tonight and do some star gazing (or as my son puts it Alien hunting😄)

Good evening guys

Edited September 22, 2013 by LeighD

[john pike]

as we go into october look east

 

 

building nicely

[john pike]

[stainesbloke]

All that cold can stay there as far as I'm concerned A short, mild winter please this year, leading into a long, hot summer next year. Though if lots of berries means a cold winter then this winter should be freezing!

[Kentish Man]

I suppose we in the south east shouldn't whinge too much as overall we get a relatively good deal with the British weather and the Midlands North etc had a lovely sunny day today. However this September has been disappointing so far after a lovely July and August (Philip Eden shows national temps as 1.5C below the running mean and a little on the dull side to boot) but hopes were raised after a poor spell of weather for something better especially today. Unfortunately cloud is notoriously difficult to forecast and a national UK forecast such as this mornings on the Beeb doesn't always get the local detail right - today they mentioned the South Coast would stay cloudy which by implication would suggest those slightly further north in London etc would do better. However their cloud forecast maps showed something rather less optimistic though so maybe Helen was just being economical with the truth! 

[john pike]

All that cold can stay there as far as I'm concerned A short, mild winter please this year, leading into a long, hot summer next year. Though if lots of berries means a cold winter then this winter should be freezing!

 

All that cold can stay there as far as I'm concerned A short, mild winter please this year, leading into a long, hot summer next year. Though if lots of berries means a cold winter then this winter should be freezing!

 

follow the berries

 

they are normally right

[john pike]

I suppose we in the south east shouldn't whinge too much as overall we get a relatively good deal with the British weather and the Midlands North etc had a lovely sunny day today. However this September has been disappointing so far after a lovely July and August (Philip Eden shows national temps as 1.5C below the running mean and a little on the dull side to boot) but hopes were raised after a poor spell of weather for something better especially today. Unfortunately cloud is notoriously difficult to forecast and a national UK forecast such as this mornings on the Beeb doesn't always get the local detail right - today they mentioned the South Coast would stay cloudy which by implication would suggest those slightly further north in London etc would do better. However their cloud forecast maps showed something rather less optimistic though so maybe Helen was just being economical with the truth! 

 

hi kentish

 

to me september has been soooooooooo boring

 

only good thing is not endless wind and rain (yet)

 

i think people think i am a misery with my fax forecasts but

 

i think i have been fairly right with cloud warning etc

 

however in defence of the

forecasters predicting cloud is very very hard to do

and i still do not think tomorrow looks much better

 

as the weatherman would say

 

at least it will be mild

[Crepuscular Ray]

 

as the weatherman would say

 

at least it will be mild

I always wondered why Darren Bett went in to weather forecasting, given that he doesn't actually seem to like weather...

[Reefseeker]

lovely pictures . When I drove over Lambeth Bridge this morning at 7.30ish, the top third was covered in fog, glad it cleared in time for you.Been cloudy as anything today, not even a glimps. But come 6.30 as the sun is setting the clouds break up. Hey - Ho at least I can get the telescope out tonight and do some star gazing (or as my son puts it Alien hunting)Good evening guys

 

Thanks Leigh, and indeed as we spotted the Shard at 8.15ish in the distance all fogged over at its top parts we too wondered if the views might not be all they were cracked up to be!

 

Quite a warm evening to walk the dog who is rather heat-sensitive. Hoping for the sun to turn up tomorrow. Happy alien hunting:)

[abruzzi spur]

Stars a plenty on show now, which makes me think (I'm clever like this) that it's not cloudy any more.

Blinkin' (gets through the swear filter) annoying that the cloud clears as it gets dark, allows the stars to ponce about all twinkly-like (sorry I seem to have come over all Geordie-like) and then nips back before sunrise and acts all innocent-like (whoops I did it again) in the morning.

There's a wonderful Joni Mitchell song called Both Sides Now that has some beautiful descriptions of clouds, but even she didn't get all lyrical about slate grey skies that lift only as it's getting dark!

AS

Edited September 22, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[Jason T]

follow the berries

 

they are normally right

 

 

Ooooooo JP, The Berries are always right...... Corker ECM at day 10.

 

[Jason T]

   I'm not saying where i got this from. It will probably be obvious, Anyone ready for an armageddon Winter. Breath taking forecast,Just need popcorn and Lights out, Maybe some mulled wine (LOTS)Bugger halloween. . Yes it is still September.

 

 

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

December 2013

The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to
experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime
at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). 

January 2014

The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of
northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. 

February 2014

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,
but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Jason T

[stainesbloke]

Lol....will probably be mild and sunny after reading that forecast

[john pike]

hi all

 

fax time

 

thursday

 

a weak southerly flow

 

temps around 18 degrees

 

potential for some heavy downpours throughout the day not going to say the t word yet

 

friday

 

a very weak south easterly flow

 

looks mainly dry

 

 

temps around 18 degrees again

 

expect some dense fog am in places

 

ukmo at 144

 

south east flow

 

18-20 degrees approx

 

looks dry

 

expect changes though

[Mark Neal.]

:help: I'm not saying where i got this from. It will probably be obvious, Anyone ready for an armageddon Winter. Breath taking forecast,Just need popcorn and Lights out, Maybe some mulled wine (LOTS)Bugger halloween. . Yes it is still September.

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods during the daytimeat times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

Overhyped rubbish Mate, even though I would for it to be true. Key dates in February for snow lol, like lottery ticket Edited September 22, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Crepuscular Ray]

   I'm not saying where i got this from. It will probably be obvious, Anyone ready for an armageddon Winter. Breath taking forecast,Just need popcorn and Lights out, Maybe some mulled wine (LOTS)Bugger halloween. . Yes it is still September.

 

 

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

December 2013

The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to

experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime

at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). 

January 2014

The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of

northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. 

February 2014

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,

but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

Apart from my doubts that anyone can predict what the weather will be in a given area on a given day in five months' time, it's full of nonsense and hype:

The north may experience temperatures below the CET. Well, no sheet Sherlock.

Temperatures may exceed double negative figures - WHAT - below -99C?????

Ice floes? Perhaps he ought to look up the difference between ice floes and sea ice (unlikely as that is).

 

I'm copying that post so that in March we can see just how (in)accurate it was.

[john pike]

guys i am pretty sure jason has posted that for a bit of fun

 

if you think thats bad wait until yamkin makes a return

 

then ramping will commence

[Crepuscular Ray]

guys i am pretty sure jason has posted that for a bit of fun

 

if you think thats bad wait until yamkin makes a return

 

then ramping will commence

Doh to me then!

[john pike]

Doh to me then!

[Captain Shortwave]

I think it's best to see where the long rangers head in the coming weeks, though all signs look quite positive.

September looks to end quite benign and probably quite warm which I don't mind to be honest, better than the week just gone haha.

The polar vortex doesn't look like taking control of our weather for a while yet so I guess the pattern will be pretty slack whether it is settled or not. But if we do get a northerly or easterly in October, maybe just maybe we might get the first snowfall, bit extreme but with the way the temperatures are going to tank to our north east, any wind from that region would be unseasonably cold.

I must note that warm sunny weather would also still be on the table

Zonality looks unlikely in my opinion.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowangel-MK]

Sorry to see that some of you in the far south and SE of the region had a cloudy Sunday, I hope you all had a good day non the less...it was very warm and sunny in Birmingham and was still nice when we got back to MK late this afternoon....here are a few pics from the weekend just to show how nice it was up there (and the diverse architecture of the city)..... 

 

 

 

 

 

...hopefully we will all have a sunny Monday 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kentish Man]

hi kentish

 

to me september has been soooooooooo boring

 

only good thing is not endless wind and rain (yet)

 

i think people think i am a misery with my fax forecasts but

 

i think i have been fairly right with cloud warning etc

 

however in defence of the

forecasters predicting cloud is very very hard to do

and i still do not think tomorrow looks much better

 

as the weatherman would say

 

at least it will be mild

 

 

Well the Beeb are showing far more breaks down here in tomorrows cloud forecast so it will be interesting to see what happens. I was hoping that low to the southwest drifts towards Biscay as a cut off slowe moving feature. That is a rare synoptic - the archive charts from the last week of Sep 1976 show this situation and we had several evening and night time storms over consecutive days.

[john pike]

 

 

 

 

hi kentish

 

to me september has been soooooooooo boring

 

only good thing is not endless wind and rain (yet)

 

i think people think i am a misery with my fax forecasts but

 

i think i have been fairly right with cloud warning etc

 

however in defence of the

forecasters predicting cloud is very very hard to do

and i still do not think tomorrow looks much better

 

as the weatherman would say

 

at least it will be mild

 

 

Well the Beeb are showing far more breaks down here in tomorrows cloud forecast so it will be interesting to see what happens. I was hoping that low to the southwest drifts towards Biscay as a cut off slowe moving feature. That is a rare synoptic - the archive charts from the last week of Sep 1976 show this situation and we had several evening and night time storms over consecutive days.

 

hi kentish

 

i still think this low

 

to our south west is causing some problems

 

the models are likely to flip around still over it

 

re 1976 storm i remember that well

 

would be very nice to see that happen again (proper electrical storm where you can hear the lightning crackle)

 

remember the 76 summer  now that was a proper summer

 

re cloud tomorrow i think the centre of the high near kent will cause issues

 

hope i am wrong though

Edited September 22, 2013 by john pike

[Coast]

Morning Ladies and Gents.

 

The 'dirty high' continues with a very dull and cloudy start today. Has anyone noticed how all normal, outside sound has been muffled in the current crop of weather? Almost silent over the Sussex Downs yesterday as the blanket of grey mush suppressed all traffic, human and wildlife noise.

 

Looks like we could see temps in the early 20's today though, so not all bad by any means.