Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Captain Shortwave]

Possible spanner in the works showing on the 06z run?

 i

Look what's cooking in the mid atlantic

[Summer Sun]

That low above doesn't make any progress and stays out in the Atlantic

 

A few northerlies on the 06z though the first is 10 days away so the chances of it coming off won't be all that high for now

 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

That low above doesn't make any progress and stays out in the Atlantic

 

A few northerlies on the 06z though the first is 10 days away so the chances of it coming off won't be all that high for now

 

The op really isn't back up by the ensembles though which show a pretty strong Euro high signal again suggesting the winds will be south of west throughout.

 

That tropical system needs watching as we know what the last one did with our weather patterns. FI in the GFS op looked pretty ridiculous considering that low decided to go in reverse immediately when low resolution kicked in.

[Summer Sun]

The op really isn't back up by the ensembles though which show a pretty strong Euro high signal again suggesting the winds will be south of west throughout.

 

That tropical system needs watching as we know what the last one did with our weather patterns. FI in the GFS op looked pretty ridiculous considering that low decided to go in reverse immediately when low resolution kicked in.

 

Yep GFS ens keeps a big high over eastern Europe as a result the UK remains fairly mild with at uppers no lower than +5 covering most of England and Wales to at least mid October with mild / warm south westerly winds

 

[Chief Wiggam]

Yep GFS ens keeps a big high over eastern Europe as a result the UK remains fairly mild with at uppers no lower than +5 covering most of England and Wales to at least mid October with mild / warm south westerly winds

To quote Montgomery Burns.... "excellent Smithers"

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a turnaround from the GFS ens over the last 24 hours, completely ditching any real cooler spell and going for this Euro high type set up. Also worth noticing the latest CFS anomalies during October show blocking again to the north east being rather persistent until pretty much the latter third of the month. Also worth noting that the Atlantic region again looks very quiet especially considering we would normally be experiencing zonal patterns by now.

The one good thing about this spell is that colder waters around the Iceland region are slowly but surely being displaced by warmer water moving up from the south (in fact the SSTs off the west coast of the UK are above average), if we get warmer than average SSTs up into the far north of the Atlantic, it might help in developing positive pressure anomalies further down the line.

Here is the CFS anomaly charts for October

 

 

Whilst everyone is going on about January/February 2014, I think people need to watch this coming November as I feel it might pull a March of this year and produce some very unexpected results

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[damianslaw]

Becoming more unsettled for all but staying mild for the time of year is the best way to describe likely conditions in the upcoming week.

 

What is quite unusual for the time of year is the very sluggish atlantic - low pressure systems by now should have some oomph to them but instead the weak jet is enabling heights to our east to gain the upper hand... Can anyone elighten me on the reason why the atlantic is so weak at the moment?

 

SW parts will see a generally quite wet week, with rain likely for many by mid week - it has been notably dry these last 10 days especially in the normally wet NW.

 

Heights look like staying very strong over the near continent with a classic mild sw airflow most likely as we approach next weekend - an airflow I personally despise at any time of year with its associated murky drizzly gloom..

[Captain Shortwave]

Aside from the issues of the longer term outlook, Thursday is now being marked as quite a nasty day

 

We could have some torrential rain moving north from France and joining forces with Atlantic weather systems moving in from the West. GFS seeing the potential for a washout as well as the Metoffice and bbc.

GFS steamrollers the Atlantic pattern in FI again which again looks unreasonable but at day 8 it looked more anticyclonic compared to previous runs

GEM is very similar to this mornings run

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Aside from the issues of the longer term outlook, Thursday is now being marked as quite a nasty day

 

We could have some torrential rain moving north from France and joining forces with Atlantic weather systems moving in from the West. GFS seeing the potential for a washout as well as the Metoffice and bbc.

GFS steamrollers the Atlantic pattern in FI again which again looks unreasonable but at day 8 it looked more anticyclonic compared to previous runs

 

Yep this was mentioned on the week ahead forecast earlier on

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I wonder if the ECM might go back to it's outputs of yesterday

GFS ensembles look more bullish than the op about a pressure rise in a weeks time

 

In fact going for a more Scandi/Euro block which would at least offer a south or even south easterly flow which provides better prospects than a long draw south westerly, sunnier and perhaps warmer by day.

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

High pressure is back on ECM later this week in turn low pressure builds over Greenland

 

 

UKMO at t144 also showing a big euro high developing

 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

deep into fantasy world is looking interesting  at the moment it wont happen but its  looking nice!!

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm surprised by the ECM ens, leaves us in a strange position here

 

ECM ens back the GFS op

GFS ens back the ECM op

oh well more runs needed as per usual 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday September 29th 2013.

 

All models show an unsettled week to come as Low pressure moves slowly North over the Eastern Atlantic to the West of Britain. Warm winds from the SE will veer more towards the SW by the end of the week as fronts cross steadily East and North through the week. There will be rain at times all week in the SW and this will extend to the drier Northern and Eastern regions too by the middle or end of the week. Thursday looks a particularly nasty day for some SE areas as a secondary Low moves NNE across these areas with some prolonged, heavy and thundery rain likely for a time. By Friday clearer, fresher and Westerly winds will move across all areas late in the week with a sunshine and showers mix, heaviest in the West.

 

GFS then shows next weekend as a drier phase across England and Wales as a ridge of High pressure crosses close to SE Britain. It's not too long after a few days though before this collapses away South and fronts feed there way South over the UK with a deep Low forming in situ near the British Isles with strong winds and progressively colder conditions before the end of the run with showers or longer spells of rain then with snow on the Northern mountains.

 

UKMO tonight at the close of it's run shows High pressure over Iberia and France with a SW flow blowing over the UK. the north and West would be mild and cloudy and breezy with occasional rain and drizzle while the South and East sees a lot of cloud too but largely fine weather with temperatures on the warm side of average especially in the SE where some brighter spells are likely.

 

GEM shows a fully fledged anticyclone developing over the UK next weekend with fine and dry conditions with reasonably warm daytime conditions but chilly nights with fog problems likely. Towards the end of the run High pressure weakens and slides away East with a return to cloudier conditions with occasional rain to SW Britain, heavy and thundery in places.

 

NAVGEM tries to build High pressure into the UK next weekend without too much success with the SW winds keen to survive with further outbreaks of rain in the North and West at times and this extending to areas further South later for a time before pressure builds in from the West late in the run.

 

ECM shows a warm and drier interlude for the South and East next weekend as a ridge moves in from the SW. However, Low pressure moves back in from the West late in the run with rain or showers for all again.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show above average uppers for the next two weeks though only marginally so rather than the well above average uppers we have seen of late. The trend is also shown that supports a drier spell next weekend and into the following week in the South before things turn more unsettled again at the end of the run.

 

The Jet Stream can only be accurately predicted up to a week ahead of the present at the moment as the extended outlook period changes with every run. In the meantime the flow continues to move East to the South of the UK for a few days which then diverts further North in response to the Low pressure moving North through this week and High pressure building to the South and SE next weekend.

 

In Summary the weather remains on a similar course to this morning with an unsettled week to come before a brief respite for southern and eastern areas before a return to more unsettled conditions reappear later in the second week. Having said all that there will be a lot of respectable if not perfect weather considering we are into October on Tuesday with some dry and fine conditions mixed in with occasional rainfall which in itself will not be noteworthy add the absence of any severe gales, frosts or fog then I don't think we need to complain too much on tonight's outputs.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[phil nw.]

Gibby's summary(above) pretty much outlines a modified(weaker than normal)Atlantic pattern as we go into early October.

Rather changeable with some rain but a fair amount of dry days with temperatures remaining above normal most of the time.

As some of us have already commented the Atlantic jet still relatively quiet considering we are moving towards mid-Autumn with much of the action on the Pacific side still.

 

 

the mean 500hPa ens at T168 indicating the bulk of the developing polar vortex positioned on that Pacific side giving the greater upper thermal gradient over there.

This pattern of slow moving ridging with some shallow troughing between looks the likely pattern into the first half of October.

No real influence from any organised tropical convection indicated by weak MJO forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#clivar

 

latest CPC days 8-14 500hPa mean forecast chart show the Atlantic area with those height anomalies and the steeper thermal gradient over the Pacific(green lines).

Day 10 means

 

So for now i would punt for no real change but Inevitably as we go further into Autumn the Atlantic jet will strengthen as the cooling polar vortex becomes more influencial on our upper air pattern.

Edited September 29, 2013 by phil nw.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Whilst everyone is going on about January/February 2014, I think people need to watch this coming November as I feel it might pull a March of this year and produce some very unexpected results

 

 

Not directly on topic but I felt I should reply as I also think November will be a cold month.

[Tim Bland]

Re the above map- On the pacific side (where the 995 low is) what country is that? Always does my head in seeing the hemisphere from that point of view and can't work it out! Many thanks to anyone who can help!

[Frosty.]

Patience guys, the pattern will change and we will get some proper autumn weather, the met office update again sounded like it will become cooler and unsettled in the not too distant future with october bringing a gradual return to normal autumn conditions. :- )

[Gaz1985]

Good to see high pressure just to the south of the UK, hopefully this will be a trend in the not too distant future....

 

[Frosty.]

And there won't be much benign settled weather this week, all of the uk will get rain at some point this week with rain every day in different areas although there will be some dry and brighter spells and temperatures around about where they should be or a little above average with strong winds at times which will take the edge off the warmer days. :- )

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Re the above map- On the pacific side (where the 995 low is) what country is that? Always does my head in seeing the hemisphere from that point of view and can't work it out! Many thanks to anyone who can help!

Thats Alaska tim

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM we will get a decent Sunday this week

 

 

Into next week and a south westerly flow sets up for a short time

 

 

Some lower pressure tries to shift the high

 

 

But it fails first time around

 

 

Before having a second go

 

 

UKMO is also on board for high pressure to build

 

 

At the t144 range GFS is still lagging behind but it getting there

 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby although there are hints of some cooler temperatures and winds coming in the sustained period of relatively quiet and mild Autumn weather continues

 

Good morning everyone. Here is todays view of the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday September 30th 2013.

 

All models maintain the view of changeable conditions through the working days of this week as Low pressure moves North close to Western Britain swinging troughs steadily NE across the UK with rain or showers for all by midweek. Winds will slowly veer towards the SW or West late in the week with brighter and less showery weather reaching many areas by Friday as well as turning things somewhat cooler.

 

GFS shows pressure rising across the South next weekend with fine, bright and reasonably mild weather returning in a light SW breeze. Further North and winds will be stronger from the SW with fronts carried NE delivering rain at times with temperatures normal or above. Through the following week some fine weather may be had for all as a cooler High pressure area crosses the UK before relaxing slowly slowly SE later in the run. A few cooler days are likely for moat at this point before a more defined change to unsettled conditions for all arrives at the end of the run with a chilly and strong Westerly breeze with rain and strong winds and colder conditions in the North.

 

UKMO closes it's run with next Sunday showing High pressure close to Brittany with light winds over the UK and fine weather again for most away from the far NW where thicker cloud and more of a mild SW wind carries occasional rain in off the Atlantic.

 

GEM shows High pressure too forming just to the South of Britain in 5 or 6 days with a fine weekend in the South if rather cloudy. Further North will see thicker cloud and some rain at times in a stronger Westerly breeze. This more changeable scenario is shown to spread South for a time next week but is quickly replaced by higher pressure again in the South by midweek.

 

NAVGEM brings High pressure across all areas next weekend with a spell of quiet and settled weather for all with temperatures close to average or above but with quiet and clear skies at night mist and fog problems would likely develop.

 

ECM shows a dry and bright period for Southern Britain next weekend when it stays reasonably mild. In the new week temperatures fall back in the wake of a cold front crossing SE and slowly dragging more changeable weather South and East across Britain with temperatures falling back somewhat.

 

The GFS Ensembles shows some rain for most this week before a drier period develops from the weekend in the South with weak signals for a return to rain at times for all, the South included later next week. Temperatures remain on the warm side of average for much of the time although this may become marginal at times later next week.

 

The Jet Stream currently blowing from the West across Southern Biscay currently weakens and breaks up later this week before a new surge pushes NE across the Atlantic and NW Britain from next weekend.

 

In Summary today the weather is set to be changeable this week with some rain or showers for most through the week though some areas may see less than at first thought. Later in the week cooler and fresher air will arrive from the West with a few showers, mostly in the NW. The weekend then looks quite good particularly if you live in the South with some fine and bright weather when temperatures again reach above average values. Then it looks like the trend is for more changeable weather already over the NW to sink further South and East next week with some rain likely for all in rather cooler temperatures as the winds look like eventually settling from a source further North in the North Atlantic. No real cold and frosty and foggy weather is shown by any output as yet though so the sustained period of relatively quiet and mild Autumn weather continues.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm536053findlastpost_Model-Output-Discussion-24-9-13.aspx#post536053

[Jo Farrow]

It does look like  change from the very windy/ mild origins air by Fri/Sat

to High building settling things down for southern and eastern Britain. What seems to be the trickier bit is the low/s coming from more northern Atlantic could trouble NW Britain but how far will the unsettled weather impact.

 

If the High builds more and take hold, most of England and Wales get a fine weekend, some great autumn days, could this extend into N.Ireland and Scotland

Western Isles, you know the low will brush you

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the Azores anticyclone building northeastwards across the southern half of the uk during next weekend, replacing the mild, windy and unsettled weather and settling the weather down with winds becoming lighter and with increasing amounts of sunshine but with a risk of overnight fog and chillier nights compared to this week. The further north & west you are, the more progressively unsettled it looks with a sw-ne aligned jet but at least those relatively wet and windier northwestern areas would be mild with a generally sw'ly airflow of variable strength. Looking further ahead, the ecm mean shows next weekends fine spell for the south and east persisting well into the following week and becoming a little warmer as time goes on but the northwest corner of the BI continues unsettled and windy at times, by T+240 hours, the low to the northwest of the uk looks more menacing but the fine and pleasantly warm spell holds on for the southeast until well towards mid october.