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Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM shows the low making some progress later next week but it won't get fully through as the high to our east is going to force it north up to Iceland

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows the PFJ heading much further south again, just like previous runs in the last few days and again the air turns cold enough on the higher hills & mountains in the far north for the showers to turn increasingly to sleet and snow and with overnight frosts becoming more likely, however, this run is nothing like as progressive as the 12z op run and the mild, windy and unsettled spell during the first half of next week is followed by a return to benign conditions with light winds, sunny spells but relatively less mild than currently and with a higher risk of fog but then possibly colder and more unsettled towards mid october.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As expected the low is forced north up to Iceland the air becomes less warm in the north west whether this transfers further south remains to be seen

 

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T216 we see that huge area of high pressure moving into the UK (2nd run today ECM has shown this) the fresher air moves across the UK as well

 

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T240 should show that high extending a bit further north if it follows the 00z run

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Like how the chart is showing a sub zero poke from the Beast from the East, almost like its saying 'watch yourself this winter Europe'!

Very surprising to see the -8 uppers over Eastern Europe already!

 

Moscow and Kiev rather chilly. Hopefully it stays over there.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Now that's what i'm talkin aboutPosted Image .. taken from tonight's GEFS 12z control run, better versions of these type of charts that coldies like me will be looking for as october goes on, with progressively colder air digging in behind fronts turning the showers more wintry with overnight frosts.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Now that's what i'm talkin aboutPosted Image .. taken from tonight's GEFS 12z control run, better versions of these type of charts that coldies like me will be looking for as october goes on, with progressively colder air digging in behind fronts turning the showers more wintry with overnight frosts.Posted Image

GFS control run at what 14 days away, in winter this would mean we would be expecting snow in about 6 months time Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Now that's what i'm talkin aboutPosted Image .. taken from tonight's GEFS 12z control run, better versions of these type of charts that coldies like me will be looking for as october goes on, with progressively colder air digging in behind fronts turning the showers more wintry with overnight frosts.Posted Image

CFS at the same timeframe...looks a bit too breezy for frost Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday September 26th 2013.

 

All models show a SE or East flow across the UK with a weakening front across the SW with occasional rain and a similar setup over the far NW. The air is moist and humid so cloud amounts will be quite large at times but some good sunny spells are possible for many tomorrow. By Saturday the Low to the SW which is the driving force to our weather edges closer to the South sending another set of fronts North and slowly East onto SW Britain with some heavy thundery rain especially on Saturday lessening on Sunday. Through the first few days of next week the most noticeable change will be an increase in wind with quite a fresh to strong wind blowing North over the UK with the axis of winds changing from SE to NW to South to North. An East/West split also seems likely with the West continuing to see outbreaks of heavy rain at times while the East stays drier for most of the time with some sunny intervals away from the North Sea coasts.

 

GFS then continues the veering wind scenario while maintaining the changeable theme. the emphasis on wind and rain shifts towards the West and North for a time before cooler and more settled weather develops late in the run as High pressure moves in from the West with dry and  bright if cool weather with mist and fog as well as a touch of frost all possible for a time late in the run.

 

UKMO also veers winds more Southerly as we move through next week with a West/East split allowing occasional rain over the West while Eastern areas stay dry and bright. Temperatures would be near to average in the rain but warmer in any bright spells towards the East while all areas become much breezier than of late.

 

GEM tonight shows the weather becoming very unsettled and windy next week with Low pressure closer in towards the UK than some of the other output allowing a rain risk for all areas some of it heavy especially in the South and West. Temperatures would be somewhat lower than of late with time but still above average in any brighter breaks especially at first.

 

NAVGEM shows an unsettled and windy spell to come next week as SE winds become strong with rain at times carried North and more slowly East across the British Isles. It will feel cooler than of late in the strength of the wind with sunshine at a premium for most in generally cloudy skies.

 

ECM also shows unsettled conditions for much if not all of next week with Low pressure to the SW and West gradually transferring to the NW later next week before pressure builds in it's wake. Much of the week will see rain at times along with strong winds for a time before things gradually become drier across the South and East which extends to all areas next weekend away from the far NW. Temperatures on the warm side of average innitially would fall back to average levels late next week.

 

The GFS Ensembles show descending uppers albeit gradual over the next two weeks towards the seasonal average. It would appear that for a large part of the time Low pressure will be in charge with rain at times for all.

 

The Jet Stream shows the main flow relocating South of the UK over the next 48hrs or so. After undulating at this more Southerly latitude for the following few days the flow pulls further North over the British Isles in the days that follow.

 

In Summary tonight the output is fairly agreed on the basic setup but what is less clear is how much and for how long the High pressure over Europe can interpret to what extent the rain bearing fronts guaranteed to affect the South and SW early in the weekend and again next week is allowed to extend it's influence to Eastern areas of Britain too. Most output tonight does show fronts making it right over to the East by midweek by which time the emphasis on rain shifts more to a NW/SE split with somewhat cooler uppers feeding cooler and cleaner air across the UK. In the longer term tonight there are some signs that High pressure may move up towards Southern Britain late in the period allowing dry and fine conditions to return to some degree and extent.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

GFS control run at what 14 days away, in winter this would mean we would be expecting snow in about 6 months time Posted Image

from little acorns grow......... it's a welcome change from all the benign charts, the stagnant pattern will hopefully end soon.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Never understood the fascination with wintry sypnotics in october. Remember back to autumn 2010. It was warm until mid november and then - boom!

on topic and the nwp performance over the past couple of weeks has been dire post day 6. I wonder if the general renewed push ne of the AH post day 8 will still be there in a few days time?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12z ECM ensemble once again shows a huge area of high pressure developing over Europe later next week which comes to the south of UK at day 10

 

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Day 10 has the high further north than this morning ensemble run

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

GEM going into the latter timeframe shows a real build of that Scandi High and quite a keen Easterly wind developing too, would feel rather nippy. As the saying goes, 'Wind from the East, No good for man nor beast'.

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Whilst the charts are showing a static affair - sudden changes can appear at this time of year thanks to tropical storm activity.

 

Are there indications of any further hurricane activity soon? Ex hurricane humberto last week has had a very marked affect on current conditions in the last week and for the foreseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Whilst the charts are showing a static affair - sudden changes can appear at this time of year thanks to tropical storm activity. Are there indications of any further hurricane activity soon? Ex hurricane humberto last week has had a very marked affect on current conditions in the last week and for the foreseeable future.

Nope, it's absolutely dead. At near record levels.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yet again tonight there is evidence of a possible colder incursion by mid october, at some point, the current pattern will collapse and then we should see early signs of things to come, hopefully another november 2010 stonker.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Whilst the charts are showing a static affair - sudden changes can appear at this time of year thanks to tropical storm activity. Are there indications of any further hurricane activity soon? Ex hurricane humberto last week has had a very marked affect on current conditions in the last week and for the foreseeable future.

The dive in the Jet Stream south has essentially led to a rise in pressure and dry air outside the Caribbean. Until the Azores High builds back I doubt there will be any tropical interference.
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

The GFS18z is rather unsettled tonight, from start to finish. One realises its 'just another run', but certainly if it was to verify, we would see above average rainfall and below average temps into week 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Good old GFS FI, creates northern blocking out of nowhere and then demolishes it in about 48 hours. Posted Image

That secondary low at the end of GFS high resolution needs watching though, whether it actually exists and secondly what effect it has on the weather patterns.

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Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean shows the height of the stalemate at T+144 hours, a mexican standoff between the atlantic low and the scandi high, however, beyond that point the atlantic low has had enough and drifts away towards iceland and the scandi high also loses it's appetite and sinks away southeastwards but pressure then rises from the south with fine and benign weather spreading up from mainland europe. The very autumnal weather remains on the other side of that thick black line (the polar front jet) but eventually the PFJ does make some progress southeastwards with relatively colder air pushing into scotland towards mid october, I think the second half of october will be the turning point when we finally break out of this locked down stagnant pattern.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Might have to delay my imminent hibernation if those very benign-looking HP influenced conditions really do come off in October .... 

 

I've just been scanning some latest updates. For this immediate weekend, our very last official 'outing' of the summer, prospects even quite well South (Forest of Dean area), look likely to be a good deal drier than were once progged (earlier this week, Saturday in particular looked like it was going to be an absolute  washout for a muuch broader ara in the South. Not nearly so much now, really).

 

The outdoor pragmatist in me is happy, and IMO it follows a consistent pattern over a lot of the summer too -- 'downgrades' to strength/intensity of the majority of any threatened LP attacks the nearer you get to zero hours ...

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Here is the latest from Gibby becoming dry and unseasonably mild again later next week?

 

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 27th 2013.

 

All models show slow changes over the coming week with a slowly strengthening ESE flow over all areas, becoming rather warm for all areas after the cooler air over the North is slowly wafted away back North. There will be a lot of dry weather to be found especially over the North and East as High pressure remains to the NE slipping slowly South early next week. In contrast Low pressure is edging ever closer to SW Britain with some heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain reaching the far South and SW tonight then extending slowly North and even slower East over the weekend to reach most areas by Tuesday of next week.

 

GFS then shows Low pressure riding North up the Western side of the UK with winds veering South or SW. With troughs still lying over the West further rain is expected in places , more particularly by then towards Northern and Western Britain with the SE having the best chance of staying drier where temperatures will remain a little above average. In the extended part of the run a cool Autumnal area of High pressure builds across the UK from the West with a cool spell with bright days but very chilly nights with mist, fog and frost all possible before a cold Northerly flow develops behind a trough at the end of the run.

 

UKMO today shows Low pressure to the West and High pressure well to the East with a strong Southerly flow carrying outbreaks of rain quickly North and much more slowly East across the UK through next week.

 

GEM is largely similar extending it's unsettled spell well into next weekend and beyond as Low pressure is more resolute in maintaining influence over the UK albeit in a more weakened for near or over the UK by Day 10.

 

NAVGEM sows a more SE flow lasting all of next week with the South and West always on a collision course with outbreaks of potentially heavy rain at times while Northern and Eastern areas stay much drier and brighter with strong SE winds at times almost everywhere.

 

ECM shows an unsettled week before next weekend sees High pressure building North and NE from the SW with drier and brighter weather spreads NE over the South and East of the UK in particular with quite warm conditions returning by then with some sunshine in the SE.

 

The GFS Ensembles show good support for a sustained period of uppers above average as winds continue to blow from a warm Southerly source. The warmest conditions are still shown to slowly leak away with time though any coldweather is not likely. There will be a reasonable amount of rain around at times especially in the South over this weekend and early next week before High pressure begins to have some influence towards the South again later next week and beyond.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow setting up to the South and SW of the UK over the weekend where it remains for a time. Later it then weakens and moves North again to be clear of the North of the UK next weekend and beyond.

 

In Summary the weather will remain unsettled for the reliable timeframe. The warm Southerly winds will feed rain North and East across the UK throughout the first week. As winds slowly turn SW on response to Low pressure edging further North over the Atlantic the emphasis of rain will switch to the North and West and with some support for a pressure build close to the South and SE of Britain in 10 days or so, particularly shown again by ECM the weather could well become dry and unseasonably mild again with some sunshine towards the end of the run in the South and East with any rain by then more likely towards the far NW.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Lovely end to ECM again with a huge area of high pressure still shown to build later next week 3rd successive run this has been shown now

 

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