Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Frosty.]

More like the poodle from the Urals

or just a great big puddle now if it was late november or december..

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean looks very similar to the ecm 00z ensemble mean with the atlantic depression gradually gaining more influence once we get into next week, before then, as pressure continues to fall to the southwest/south, a risk of heavy showers pushing into the south by friday or saturday and drier to the north/ne under weak ridging but then through next week the winds pick up and veer more sw'ly with unsettled weather pushing in from the atlantic but still feeling very mild.

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for updates, which I've only had time to scan briefly.

 

My personal interest is strictly short term -- up to this coming weekend. Which on some runs shows possible signs of becoming something of a washout? in parts of the W/SW ....wondering whether there might be some changes in the detail of this prospect over the next few days. Can only look at forthcoming runs.

 

(We'll be in Gloucestershire, nr Lydney, for our positively final outing of the season before our tent and us head into hibernation!)

Edited September 24, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

The balance of the latest met office update has changed since yesterday which has most impact on the longer range outlook through october, it now sounds like near average rainfall and temperatures with only a weak signal for warm and sunnier weather across the south, this suggests to me that the polar front jet will gradually drift down to the uk and may end up across the middle of the uk with scotland & n.ireland in the cooler north atlantic flow with a risk of polar maritime incursions, further south, a bit milder but wet and windy at times and the driest, brightest and mildest weather across the south/se.

 

In the meantime, the latest update is pretty much as the latest gefs/ecm mean with increasingly unsettled weather, the south & east at highest risk of heavy rain this weekend with drier weather to the northwest and then next week the heaviest rain risk transferring to the western side of the uk but we would all see rain at times but interspersed by brighter, showery weather, becoming windy at times, especially across the west/nw but with more a nw/se split developing, the south and east of the uk, especially the southeast would have some decent fine spells between times.

 

The other most significant feature of next week is the above average temperatures which suggests winds from a southwesterly quarter, and in the drier, sunnier spells towards the east/se it would be warm with temperatures into the low 20's celsius at times, not bad for early october...however, there is then the mention of somewhat colder conditions towards the end of the 6-15 dayer, especially for the northwest which I would think means a more amplified pattern with early polar maritime type weather of sunshine and showers, nw'ly winds and cold enough for showers to turn wintry on northern hills & mountains, also a risk of slight frosts where winds drop and skies clear, this is just my own view on what that colder weather would involve.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Minimal scatter on the ensembles again this afternoon till October 7th for the uppers

 

[Summer Sun]

The ECM monthly ensemble for Glasgow shows the max temperatures staying at or above average till at least October 24th

 

 

The average temperature taking into account overnight lows runs as follows

 

Above average till October 8th

 

Slightly below or on average from the 9th to 19th ish (day time temps should be average or slightly above)

 

Slightly above average or on average from 20th to 24th

 

All these are estimates and should not be taken seriously

 

 

So pretty good agreement still on a fairly mild October for places like southern England it could continue to be quite warm at times especially in lengthy sunny periods

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

i dont think many will like the general outlook, which generally is looking largely cloudy,

 

...and now we have clear blue skies and unbroken sunshine!

 

crap forecast

 

ill get my coat...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Latest from Matt H twitter

 

Latest EC32 day shows a mild/unsettled opening week to October, but then a possible colder 2nd week as low pressure develops to the E.

[Frosty.]

...and now we have clear blue skies and unbroken sunshine!

 

crap forecast

 

ill get my coat...

you were right about the overall pattern though mushy, that's all that matters mate.

[Paul_1978]

Love your long posts Frosty but some paragraph spacing wouldn't go amiss! ;-)

(Makes it easier to read). Cheers!

[Frosty.]

Love your long posts Frosty but some paragraph spacing wouldn't go amiss! ;-)

(Makes it easier to read). Cheers!

Thanks Paul, I appreciate your comments.

[phil nw.]

Plenty of warmth being modelled wafting up from the continent heading towards the weekend as the winds back towards the south/south east.

 

 

with drier continental air in the mix there should be more chance of clearer skies and sunshine with max's.reaching high teens widely with possibly 20C in the south.

That Biscay low could well throw some showery rain towards southern and southern western areas later though. 

 

Looking at the ens graph- for Manchester this time- shows a rather dry outlook as we go into early October with temperatures staying well up for the time of year.

 

This is supported by earlier ens means which indicate the UK remaining on the warm side of an Atlantic trough which develops next week.

 

all in all quite a decent outlook with no sign yet of the Atlantic jet firing up.

 

 

Edited September 24, 2013 by phil nw.

[The PIT]

Well a cooler outlook than previously with some single figure nights showing up again in the GFS from this Friday. Still nice by day though and later well into FI the warm double figure nights make a return. Looks a fairly quiet Autumn run. Not much in the way of rain either by the look of it.

[Captain Shortwave]

I still don't think the GFS has grappled the rising heights over Scandinavia, it looked better up to day 6 but then proceeded to plough a low over Greenland straight into the region. UKMO looks like building those heights, as does the GEM which shows a really monumental battle going on with the UK stuck right in the middle.

 

 

 

Still going at day 10

[049balt]

Plenty of warmth being modelled wafting up from the continent heading towards the weekend as the winds back towards the south/south east.

 

gfs-1-96.pnggfs-0-96.png

 

with drier continental air in the mix there should be more chance of clearer skies and sunshine with max's.reaching high teens widely with possibly 20C in the south.

That Biscay low could well throw some showery rain towards southern and southern western areas later though. 

 

Looking at the ens graph- for Manchester this time- shows a rather dry outlook as we go into early October with temperatures staying well up for the time of year.

MS_Manchester_avn (1).png

 

This is supported by earlier ens means which indicate the UK remaining on the warm side of an Atlantic trough which develops next week.

Reem1921.gif

 

all in all quite a decent outlook with no sign yet of the Atlantic jet firing up.

It is amazing that we are almost into October and the weather remains so quiet.

[phil nw.]

It is amazing that we are almost into October and the weather remains so quiet.

Yes little in the way of wind and rain from deep Atlantic lows so far this Autumn.

The Atlantic comparatively quiet with the Pacific jet looking stronger currently.

 

Our turn will come i am sure-but for now just cut off lows and relatively shallow features on our side of the hemisphere. 

[Frosty.]

It is amazing that we are almost into October and the weather remains so quiet.

A freakishly quiet start to the hurricane season has a lot to do with it, it was supposed to be a very active season but no sign of it yet, if it had gone to plan, the uk would have been blasted by atlantic lows but there is plenty of time for the pattern to become normal again in october, indeed, that seems to be what the met office are hinting at today with their near average rainfall and temperatures prediction for october, the signal for a prolonged benign warm spell during october has become much weaker in the space of the last 24 hours funnily enough, what we need is some mobility to the weather if we are going to get those polar maritime incursions as october goes on..fingers crossed, i'm becoming bored with the current pattern now.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[itsnowjoke]

A freakishly quiet start to the hurricane season has a lot to do with it, it was supposed to be a very active season but no sign of it yet, if it had gone to plan, the uk would have been blasted by atlantic lows but there is plenty of time for the pattern to become normal again in october, indeed, that seems to be what the met office are hinting at today with their near average rainfall and temperatures prediction for october, the signal for a prolonged benign warm spell during october has become much weaker in the space of the last 24 hours funnily enough, what we need is some mobility to the weather if we are going to get those polar maritime incursions as october goes on..fingers crossed, i'm becoming bored with the current pattern now.

me too fed up with it as well

[Frosty.]

me too fed up with it as well

Yep, hopefully the met office are right about october and we get a more zonal fast moving pattern instead of tedious stagnation, I have championed fine weather all summer but i'm now searching for a big change. Unfortunately, if a large blocking scandi high forms, the atlantic systems will end up hitting a brick wall and not progressing any further eastwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep, hopefully the met office are right about october and we get a more zonal fast moving pattern instead of tedious stagnation, I have championed fine weather all summer but i'm now searching for a big change. Unfortunately, if a large blocking scandi high forms, the atlantic systems will end up hitting a brick wall and not progressing any further eastwards.

It won't be that bad, rain and wind will still affect the UK, some of it coming from far south could also bring some heavy and possibly thundery outbreaks. Plus we won't need to turn the heating on as it will remain quite warm for the time of year. 

Still probably would have been more interesting in the summer when the risk of thunderstorms is higher or winter where the set up could have produced plenty of frontal snow.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yep, hopefully the met office are right about october and we get a more zonal fast moving pattern instead of tedious stagnation, I have championed fine weather all summer but i'm now searching for a big change. Unfortunately, if a large blocking scandi high forms, the atlantic systems will end up hitting a brick wall and not progressing any further eastwards.

I'm really hoping for some good Autumn gales too! And then a real biting sting as it clears East with the first snow on the hills, now that would be brill. The weather may be tedious, but i genuinely would not mind if heights start to build over Scandi in the next few weeks, as this could promote early cold Easterlies over Europe and at least deliver some cold over the European landmass. Therefore, if we get an Easterly, it should at least have some teeth behind it! 

[Summer Sun]

GFS showing rainfall becoming a lot lower between the 2nd and 10th of October for a lot of the UK

 

 

Temperatures remain fairly consistent with the south holding onto the highest temperatures in the mid to high teens

 

 

So this quite start to Autumn looks like staying for a while yet with limited rain and decent temperatures across the UK

[Frosty.]

I'm really hoping for some good Autumn gales too! And then a real biting sting as it clears East with the first snow on the hills, now that would be brill. The weather may be tedious, but i genuinely would not mind if heights start to build over Scandi in the next few weeks, as this could promote early cold Easterlies over Europe and at least deliver some cold over the European landmass. Therefore, if we get an Easterly, it should at least have some teeth behind it!

I think a strong northerly blast further east would do the trick during october.

[Milhouse]

Warm air continuing to surge northwards on the ECM.

 

[Summer Sun]

Warm air continuing to surge northwards on the ECM.

 

 

Indeed low pressure stuck to the west high pressure to the east leaves us with warm, humid southerly winds

 

And this continues as we move into October

 

 

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun