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Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The latest met office update gives something for everyone with spells of cool and unsettled weather but also some dry and sunny days with temperatures a little above average so it's not a write off bad outlook, it's a variety of weather that should please everyone at various times, on balance, the nicest spells look like being across the south & east of the uk with the north and west, especially the northwest corner of the uk, being the most unsettled part of the uk during the next month, having seen the latest ecm 00z ensemble mean and posted the charts already, it's clear that there is more good weather to come, mostly across the southern half of england and wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

So you neglect to mention it just because you find it boring? I find your constant focus on everything cool and unsettled boring as well!

Not necessarily, Scorcher. Many charts are posted on here that demonstrate one weather type whether it be pressure, temperature or precipitation without showing an opposing alternative. It doesn't mean there is an ulterior motive behind it. How often do we see proposed GFS Tmax charts without seeing their minima counterpart?
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

So you neglect to mention it just because you find it boring? I find your constant focus on everything cool and unsettled boring as well!

 

And Breathe. Relax, don't get your knickers in a twist.

As March Blizzard points out, there are already 101 people that post warm and settled charts. Variety is the spice of life son.

You know average daytime temps isn't anyting spectacular and isn't a real talking point, but there again the chance of frost in September is quite rare, for down South anyway so defo worthy of a mention.

 

I understand you don't like cool and unsettled but getting stressed won't change the weather gods minds. You just gotta take the rough with the smooth and enjoy life.

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

And Breathe. Relax, don't get your knickers in a twist.

As March Blizzard points out, there are already 101 people that post warm and settled charts. Variety is the spice of life son.

You know average daytime temps isn't anyting spectacular and isn't a real talking point, but there again the chance of frost in September is quite rare, for down South anyway so defo worthy of a mention.

 

I understand you don't like cool and unsettled but getting stressed won't change the weather gods minds. You just gotta take the rough with the smooth and enjoy life.

 

What part of my post suggested I was getting 'stressed'? You're the one who has just produced the monologue, I don't want to hear it thanks!

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Lets keep it friendly please folks!

 

Although I will say those minima charts have thrown up frosts for some areas back in July (and I remember some people posting those charts gleefully too) so I'd argue they really exaggerate overnight lows and underdo daytime maxes.

Of course you can cherry pick any data to prove any point really... but overall looks like some recovery in the weather for those of us not quite ready for autumn or who are desperately trying to ripen off crops - a loosing battle my end with the ever lowering sun but one tries!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well the constant cool and unsettled outlook which some models have be throwing up have receded for the time being. Still no agreement on Humberto though. I will say the GFS has been very consistent with handling Humberto whilst the other models have been throwing different solutions out every run. Of course the GFS could be consistently wrong.

One thing to note if the GFS is on to something, we could see some very interesting weather from the storm hitting the UK to potentially stalling out west and building heights over or to the East of the UK, this would have the potential to draw up some very warm southerly winds if it came off.

Will this afternoons runs bring more clarity, or simply ask more questions....

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Decent ECM ensemble mean for next weekend especially for England and wales

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

After this the Azores high heads back into the Atlantic

 

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GFS ensemble mean has a different take

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

After this the high backs away

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 06z mean becomes rather nice eventually (at least further south) with high pressure ridging across the south and warm at times with light winds and overnight fog, the pressure pattern eventually becomes very sluggish so any changes would be slow, the sunniest weather would be across the southern half of the uk and especially the southern half of england & wales. In the nearer future, turning cooler and very unsettled with strong to gale force winds, the strongest winds tomorrow across a large area of the uk but the strongest winds tending to migrate further northeastwards early next week before easing by midweek, along with a steady decrease in the rain and showers across the uk by around midweek as a ridge slowly pushes east off the atlantic, by thursday, most of the energy will be going around the far north of the uk and then the azores/atlantic ridging building in once the filling trough has pushed away to the northeast with the PFJ then tending to remain to the north of the BI, on balance, the north of the uk probably only having relatively shorter fine intervals as depressions will be pushing northeast between scotland and iceland at times but for the south of the uk, the balance is more in favour of fine and pleasantly warm weather as time goes on but with occasional unsettled days.

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Pressure slowly increasing...

 

Posted Image

 

 

A bit more next Friday, it also ridges into France, hope fully this will be a regular thing during the Winter Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12z UKMO maintains the steady rise in pressure over a large part of Europe later next week which extends into southern parts

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Good agreement on high pressure building just in time for next weekend with this rise Humberto is forced west possibly clipping western Scotland and Ireland

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's amazing how quickly things change, it looked for a time as though we would be staring down the barrel of a week or more of very autumnal weather but now it just looks like 4 days of progressively less unsettled weather and then from thursday the balance shifts to more in the way of fine and warm weather, at least across the southern half of the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Temperatures start to increase later next week again away from Scotland and possibly northern England but across the south it looks very pleasant

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Funny how 18C is being described as "warm". Its about average, for the south. Its pleasant and mild, but hardly warm. Thankfully the days of seeing temps in the high 20s are at end, with no heat in the charts whatsoever! 18C and sunny spells is beautiful! The heat seekers will have to wait another 7/8 months now before we see 'summery' charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Funny how 18C is being described as "warm". Its about average, for the south. Its pleasant and mild, but hardly warm. Thankfully the days of seeing temps in the high 20s are at end, with no heat in the charts whatsoever! 18C and sunny spells is beautiful! The heat seekers will have to wait another 7/8 months now before we see 'summery' charts.

 

High temperatures are not at an end yet we could still hit the high 20's into early October, remember a few years back when 30c was almost hit.

 

The chances do look slim I agree but it could still be done

 

high teens / low 20's with sunshine is very pleasant for the time of year

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z op run shows a spell of very warm weather for the time of year by the end of next week, lasting into the early part of the following week, a nice window of summery weather with high pressure in control for a time, it then becomes cooler and cyclonic as a trough drifts into the uk with sunshine and showers with light and variable winds before warming up again to the southeast as a large atlantic low slowly pushes east but coming up against higher pressure to the southeast of the uk across the near continent with a feed of tropical maritime air pumping up across the uk with the weather eventually becoming progressively more unsettled for the north & west, the southeast holding on to fine and warm weather for longest, a pretty fair run overall considering how dire the ecm looked recently.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

7 or 8 months before we see more warm weather..more like 7 days if the Gfs 12z op run verified, a really warm continental flow drifting into the uk with lots of sunshine....BANKPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Looking at the 12z GFS ensembles, temps stay below average until at least Thursday next week. Then possibly we could be looking at a "warmer" spell for 2-3days max before temps cool down again to slightly below average once more. Of course Thursday is 5 days away so not in the realiable time frame to give any confidence that any "warmer" spell will defo happen and subsequently after that a cool down?

 

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The ECM 00z Ensembles also show a slight warm up around about the same time lasting again for approx 2-3 days before falling again to slighlty below average.

 

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All in all I think one could say the pattern is a more cool one than a mild one.

 

 

 

 

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Funny how 18C is being described as "warm". Its about average, for the south. Its pleasant and mild, but hardly warm. Thankfully the days of seeing temps in the high 20s are at end, with no heat in the charts whatsoever! 18C and sunny spells is beautiful! The heat seekers will have to wait another 7/8 months now before we see 'summery' charts.

1st october 2011 was certainly hot. 29c was reached that day so plenty of time for more heat if the right synoptics come into play. with humberto there i would not write it off
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Deep FI does show some warm weather. I think the clue will be  how ex Humberto actually tracks and interacts. I would take and deep FI warm spell with a pinch of salt right now.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Deep FI does show some warm weather. I think the clue will be  how ex Humberto actually tracks and interacts. I would take and deep FI warm spell with a pinch of salt right now.

i'm taking a cool unsettled further outlook with a pinch of salt too.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

High pressure building in nicely next weekend from ECM

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

The next deep low is therefore forced to track north of the UK over Iceland

 

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Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Humberto gets caught up with another lot at t168 and vanishes into that

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean is showing increasingly warm and settled weather by the end of next week which persists into the following week with temps into the low 20's, perhaps closer to mid 20's celsius across the south for a time but nearer 18-20c across the north & west of the uk which is still very pleasant for mid to late september, these mean charts show the very warm weather on the 12z op run is no fluke, just like the 12z yesterday, warm continental air drifts up into the uk with high pressure taking control for at least a few days but even further ahead, the pressure pattern looks very slack with continued fine spells with some sunshine but also showers breaking out as pressure will have dropped a little but overall, further ahead looks quite benign and pleasantly on the warm side, especially in the sunnier spells but with thick fog patches becoming more likely overnight and early mornings, in the shorter term, unsettled and cool until midweek but winds easing through the first half of next week before a ridge pushes east on thursday.

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Edited by Frosty.
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