Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Frosty.]

Looks like this low will peak around 960mb

 

 

Before easing very slowly

 

Yes Gavin it looks like the far north and eventually the far northeast of the uk mainland plus n.isles that will bear the brunt of the severe weather, but a band of heavy rain for all of us with strong winds followed by sunshine and showers.

[Summer Sun]

It will be interesting to see where humberto end's up

 

 

Humberto heading to the UK

 

 

UKMO shows the low slowly weakening by Tuesday by when the winds will be a lot lighter then they'll be late Sunday and into Monday

 

 

Humberto is no where near as deep on UKMO compared to GFS

 

 

GFS at the same time big differences from the two over humberto

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO just shrugs and says Humberto won't go anywhere fast

It seems to be loitering with intent kind of like the ECM run this morning

GFS, looking at a direct hit on the UK

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

UKMO just shrugs and says Humberto won't go anywhere fast

It seems to be loitering with intent kind of like the ECM run this morning

GFS looking at direct hit on the UK

 

 

UKMO looks much better at t144 this afternoon with humberto not in sight

 

 

Similar to ECM

 

 

GFS off on one or onto something? ECM 12z may help later on

[Frosty.]

All things considered, the GEFS 06z mean is not bad at all, indeed  it looks similar to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean in that ridging from the azores anticyclone builds in across the south once the cool and unsettled weather has subsided later next week with the overall pattern flattening out, I don't think next week will be a write off, heavy rain and gales on sunday followed by sunshine and showers at times with occasional heavy rain and the strong winds slowly moderating, especially by the second half of the week with more in the way of drier and brighter weather by then, especially across the south and west, and in any case, the most sustained bad weather early next week looks like being across the far northeast with some moderation in the weather as next week goes on, and then a good chance of an improving outlook, especially further to the south.

[SMU]

With that Steve are you thinking Sept will be the above average month given how warm it's been so far?

 

Hi Andy that was a 6 month punt but not in any order-

 

Septermber is 95% to be below ave-

 

Steve

[Frosty.]

As we totter on the brink of the first major outbreak of autumnal weather, looking beyond that nasty weather there is some very warm and sunny weather shown further ahead, at least for the south and the Gfs 12z op run shows a north/south split through most of FI with the fine weather occasionally encroaching further north, so it's not all doom and gloom by any means, there are chinks of light here and there if you look for them.

[Summer Sun]

ECM has the low at 970mb this evening

 

 

Before it ease slowly

 

 

Humberto just into view on ECM but its not going anywhere fast with the high in the Atlantic blocking it, looking north northern blocking starting to establish

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

well Humberto isn't going anywhere fast, at the same time a big high is building over Svalbard/Northern Scandi and Russia

I'll get my wellies and coat.......

What the???

The Azores high builds in.... somehow

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SMU]

If anyone want to look at my climo post from last night & the Above chart ^^^ look where the biggest +VE heigh anomaly is along 60N

 

S

[Summer Sun]

Azores high edging back in on tonight's ECM

 

 

The Azores high builds across the south whilst another low crosses the north

 

 

Warmer air coming back in

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

Well unlike many recent years September has obediently moved from summer to autumn, the hints of pressure rising after mid-month are only hints and I think low pressure moving in from the Icelandic region is the stronger force for now. 

I think the main story of the next few weeks could be the rainfall totals. Heights are building over Northern Russia towards Northern Scandinavia which could do two things - first, it could direct low pressure areas further south towards the UK and second, it could prevent any systems from clearing the UK. Indeed, this is what is happening early next week, I think it could be the first of a few though. 3 weeks of this and flooding could be back on the agenda in parts. Hopefully those "hints" of HP rises turn out just strong enough to keep the worst to our north and perhaps allow us a final day or two of warmth before it is no longer possible.

[Captain Shortwave]

By T192 the displaced Azores high is centred over Northern France

Watch out for Humberto, he's on the move

He's gone underneath the high

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

By T192 the displaced Azores high is centred over Northern France

Watch out for Humberto, he's on the move

Which implies that no-one knows what the next 2 weeks will bring...model-mayhem ahoy!

[Summer Sun]

Azores high forcing humberto to hold in the Atlantic with a deep low crossing Iceland UK into Scandinavia

 

 

Temperatures would respond in the south especially if its sunny could be slightly above average

 

 

Settled end to ECM with Humberto moving closer and weakening

 

 

Azores high controlling our weather once more

 

 

No sooner did the met office back away from a settled outlook and the models move to one

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

I think it's ironic that no sooner do the met office show a very unsettled and cool outlook and further outlook, the models start showing summery FI charts again, as per their original outlook, the GEFS 12z mean is a case in point, a massive upgrade in terms of potential warm and summery weather during the later stages of september with the azores high building in from more of a southerly direction and carving it's way north into the uk and bringing a warm and benign further outlook with overnight fog but daytime temps into the low 20's celsius, there is also the potential for very warm continental air to be drawn north into the uk with temps into the mid 20's celsius through late september.. the latest gefs 12z mean proves that the fine and very warm weather on the 12z op run is no fluke..a new trend maybe..the fat lady won't be singing just yet.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Frosty.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The only time in a long while now that HP is shown to dominate for any length of time is always way out in cloud cuckoo land.

It never gets close to entering the reliable time frame in the last few weeks of model runs.

[UV-RAY]

I think it's ironic that no sooner do the met office show a very unsettled and cool outlook and further outlook, the models start showing summery FI charts again, as per their original outlook, the GEFS 12z mean is a case in point, a massive upgrade in terms of potential warm and summery weather during the later stages of september with the azores high building in from more of a southerly direction and carving it's way north into the uk and bringing a warm and benign further outlook with overnight fog but daytime temps into the low 20's celsius, there is also the potential for very warm continental air to be drawn north into the uk with temps into the mid 20's celsius through late septemberm the latest gefs 12z mean proves that the fine and very warm weather on the 12z op run is no fluke..a new trend maybe..the fat lady won't be singing just yet.

Lol, the MetO curse strikes again. I think until the models get a proper handle on Humberto's path then such charts are quite feasible.

[Summer Sun]

The only time in a long while now that HP is shown to dominate for any length of time is always way out in cloud cuckoo land.

It never gets close to entering the reliable time frame in the last few weeks of model runs.

 

Give it time the low thats on the way early next week has caused a lot of headaches along with Humberto for the models once they get a grip on the 2 lows things will become clearer further down the line

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[hec1]

The only time in a long while now that HP is shown to dominate for any length of time is always way out in cloud cuckoo land.

It never gets close to entering the reliable time frame in the last few weeks of model runs.

Yep bring on the gales and heavy snow, the sun is long gone!

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep bring on the gales and heavy snow, the sun is long gone!

I can't remember the last time we had snow in September, don't think it was in my lifetime. Can you please return the sun please, the plants would be very pleased 

Cross model agreement for the Azores high to make a another push north eastwards in a weeks time. Will it succeed? Only time will tell. Safe to say we are back to square one again now.

Personally I would mind another warm spell as it would hold the SSTs at their annual maximum for a little longer which for the winter is good 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

I can't remember the last time we had snow in September, don't think it was in my lifetime. Can you please return the sun please, the plants would be very pleased 

Cross model agreement for the Azores high to make a another push north eastwards in a weeks time. Will it succeed? Only time will tell. Safe to say we are back to square one again now.

Well youre only young,the Scottish Mountains are used to some plastering of snow during this period OH, and the planet is cooling! The ecm at the outer ranges is flogging some high pressure due  to Humberto Not sure where the models are going but as far as im concerned, unsettled and Autumn like sums it up!! But even if ecm  virifies a cool set up, with the proverbial mist and fruitfulness,,,   

Edited September 13, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[johnholmes]

I think, forgive me for my usual, but the 500mb anomaly charts are as good a guide as anything anyone inferring from the synoptic models now or several days ago can come up with. I would go further, and this is not on gut feeling but hard fact, the data is all there for anyone to read, don't ask me where the 2 years of checking is, maybe Paul can find them, but they were pretty good scientific proof to me that, in MOST circumstances they were proven nearer the mark than any other 6-15 day tool we have available. That applied to the upper air pattern being similar 6-15 days down the line from current at the time or showing a marked change in pattern.

At this time of year as in the other change over from winter to summer in the northern hemisphere they are at times less consistent, the last 3-7 days illustrates this. They have been more consistent with the idea of the upper flow coming largely from somewhere north of west so the idea of a late summer burst for temperatures never really looked on for the end of the month. That is other than for the odd day here and there for the southern areas of England and Wales as temporary surface ridging occurred in the SW of the UK beneath temporary +ve anomaly heights in that general upper air flow.

Complcating even further what the upper air let alone the surface may do in the 5-10 day time scale is Humberto. NO model of any type ever really gets hold of the enormous outputs of energy these sytems input into the Atlantic area if they get in that area. I started a watch Humberto last evening for T+192 so today we will be comparing T+168 to see how the two main models suggest he will be. I have no idea as I have not looked at them yet whether they will be similar or different. What will be a surpise though is if they both keep a consistent track and depth for him as we count down.

For sure the weather at this time of the year can be extremely interesting both short term and longer term as we try to decide which model is giving the correct idea at whatever time scale we are interested. Then of course personal preference comes into play for almost everyone on here. Nothing wrong with that but just think of the professional, also with their own preferences trying to be totally objective about how they analyse and assess the huge amounts of data available to them.

 

I'll go and see how Humberto is being shown at T+168 - enjoy the weather whatever.

Edited September 13, 2013 by johnholmes

[Methuselah]

I can't remember the last time we had snow in September, don't think it was in my lifetime. Can you please return the sun please, the plants would be very pleased 

Cross model agreement for the Azores high to make a another push north eastwards in a weeks time. Will it succeed? Only time will tell. Safe to say we are back to square one again now.

Personally I would mind another warm spell as it would hold the SSTs at their annual maximum for a little longer which for the winter is good 

I could be a few years' older than you, Captain. And, apart from on the Munros (not the US TV series) I can't recall September snow either...But then, the only models I had to go by were made by Airfix!

[Cloud 10]

I think, forgive me for my usual, but the 500mb anomaly charts are as good a guide as anything anyone inferring from the synoptic models now or several days ago can come up with. I would go further, and this is not on gut feeling but hard fact, the data is all there for anyone to read, don't ask me where the 2 years of checking is, maybe Paul can find them, but they were pretty good scientific proof to me that, in MOST circumstances they were proven nearer the mark than any other 6-15 day tool we have available. That applied to the upper air pattern being similar 6-15 days down the line from current at the time or showing a marked change in pattern.

At this time of year as in the other change over from winter to summer in the northern hemisphere they are at times less consistent, the last 3-7 days illustrates this. They have been more consistent with the idea of the upper flow coming largely from somewhere north of west so the idea of a late summer burst for temperatures never really looked on for the end of the month. That is other than for the odd day here and there for the southern areas of England and Wales as temporary surface ridging occurred in the SW of the UK beneath temporary +ve anomaly heights in that general upper air flow.

Complcating even further what the upper air let alone the surface may do in the 5-10 day time scale is Humberto. NO model of any type ever really gets hold of the enormous outputs of energy these sytems input into the Atlantic area if they get in that area. I started a watch Humberto last evening for T+192 so today we will be comparing T+168 to see how the two main models suggest he will be. I have no idea as I have not looked at them yet whether they will be similar or different. What will be a surpise though is if they both keep a consistent track and depth for him as we count down.

For sure the weather at this time of the year can be extremely interesting both short term and longer term as we try to decide which model is giving the correct idea at whatever time scale we are interested. Then of course personal preference comes into play for almost everyone on here. Nothing wrong with that but just think of the professional, also with their own preferences trying to be totally objective about how they analyse and assess the huge amounts of data available to them.

 

I'll go and see how Humberto is being shown at T+168 - enjoy the weather whatever.

 

 

I think this is the thread?

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72606-checking-the-500mb-anomaly-charts-against-the-actual-one/