Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Captain Shortwave]

Well, we're now in the only time of year where neither very cold or very warm conditions are possible. Personally I like to keep it as warm as possible until mid-October, just to get one last feeling of something summery before the cold sets in for the next 5 months (except for last year when it was 6 months!). So tonight's output is encouraging, especially the ECM - let's hope there isn't too much cloud associated with this one:

 

Polar vortex starting to get its act together

Again the Polar vortex looks stuck over the Siberian side with modest positive pressure anomalies over Greenland and northern Canada. The Atlantic looks to remain sluggish.

CFS showing a very unusual set up for November today

I can't remember if I've seen a November dominated by heights to our north east

Edited September 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Well...what can I say, this Ecm 12z tonight is SSsssmokin  what a cracker from T+144 hours onwards, it gets better and better and really you would struggle to see more summery weather than these stonkin smokin charts would deliver during the early to mid october period.... T+240 is jaw droppingly awesome for so far into autumn......BANK..BANK 

[Summer Sun]

12z ECM ensemble remains settled well into next week with southern and south eastern England keeping the best of the weather longest

 

[Frosty.]

Yep even the Ecm 12z ensemble mean is SSsssmokin..... : -)

[Joe8987]

Looking like a record October then? Never known a late September/early October so consistently warm. We haven't had a properly cool/cold day yet this Autumn.

Can't see Autumn like weather properly coming in until mid November.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Joe8987

[Joe8987]

Delete

Edited September 30, 2013 by Joe8987

[smithyweather]

Looking like a record October then? Never known a late September/early October so consistently warm. We haven't had a properly cool/cold day yet this Autumn.Can't see Autumn like weather properly coming in until mid November.

Thats what i'm thinking too based on the way it's been going.

[Captain Shortwave]

After a brief blip, the GFS finally gets the high in close to the UK

For the coldies worrying about these patterns, one question for you, where is the polar vortex? Not much particularly happening yet over our side of the pole hence the sluggish Atlantic pattern 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bryan629]

Thats really good news CS... nice to see the vortex slowly develpoing over Siberia, where sea ice and snow cover is rapidly expanding...it can stay there and  lets hope down the line it comes to pay us a visit.

 

just for fun though, i captured this from the pub run earlier... its definately balmy in Siberia compared to Greenland

 

[Summer Sun]

Its a new month today but high pressure and mild air continues to keep its grip on the UK with ECM this morning showing little change at t240 a very deep low heads for Iceland whilst the UK remains under high pressure drifting over from Scandinavia

 

 

The ECM ensemble out at t240 shows the high also staying keeping any unsettled weather away till at least October 11th

 

 

UKMO continues to rise pressure during the weekend and into next week

 

 

GFS also shows little sign of this pattern changing for a long time

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Yarmy]

Its a new month today but high pressure and mild air continues to keep its grip on the UK with ECM this morning showing little change at t240 a very deep low heads for Iceland whilst the UK remains under high pressure drifting over from Scandinavia

 

 

The ECM ensemble out at t240 shows the high also staying keeping any unsettled weather away till at least October 11th

 

 

UKMO continues to rise pressure during the weekend and into next week

 

 

GFS also shows little sign of this pattern changing for a long time

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

I can sense Frosty preparing his FONTS as we speak...

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby no change in sight for the foreseeable future keeping the UK locked in a mild and sometimes warm South or SW flow

 

Good morning everyone. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 1st 2013.

 

All models show the start of October the same as September left off with a warm and moist SE flow covering the UK. Troughs of low pressure from a Low to the West of the UK will continue to swing slowly NE across Britain weakening substantially as they do so. Rain could be heavy in the SW but lighter and more intermittent and occasional elsewhere. On Thursday it still looks a more organised and potentially heavy period of rain will move North across all areas before a change to fresher and cleaner air arrives from the West on Friday reaching all but Scotland through the day. Saturday then sees England and Wales dry and bright with sunny spells in the South and East with more cloudy weather in the NW with some rain or showers still.

 

GFS then shows the rest of the run with changeable conditions but with a lot of dry weather to be enjoyed. Northern and Western areas are shown to be prone to be cloudy at times with outbreaks of rain and fresh SW winds as lows and troughs swing by from the West while the South and East see much less rain and long dry periods under high pressure. Temperatures will sometimes be warm especially early next week and again late in the run though it will become cooler for a time perhaps with fog at night inland.

 

UKMO shows High pressure close to SE England early next week with light winds for all and dry and bright weather for most areas away from the far NW where more cloud, a slightly fresher SW breeze could give rise to a little rain here at times.

 

GEM keeps High pressure close enough to South and SE Britain to ward off most troughs and Low pressure areas meaning a largely dry and sometimes bright and warm spell is likely to be maintained in the South and East of England and Wales while Northern and Western Britain keep more cloud and occasional rain but even here some drier, brighter and mild spells are shown.

 

NAVGEM too shows a High pressure ridged across the UK from the East early next week with fine and dry conditions likely with just the far NW at risk of any rain. Fog and mist overnight could be an issue though in this profile with rather a lot of cloud at times trapped in the airflow so moderately warm conditions rather than anything exceptionally warm looks most likely.

 

ECM has reduced it's exceptionally high uppers shown in its midday offering yesterday. Nevertheless High pressure still arrives at the weekend and extends through next week with just a brief cloudy blip midweek when a little rain is possible, chiefly towards the North and West. Temperatures would remain very respectable through the period with no risk of frost and in fact temperatures could rise further by the end of the run as a warm Continental South or SE flow wafts up from Southern Europe late next week.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing remotely very wet or windy in the next two weeks with a lot of dry and warm weather in the South after this week. The North as usual do see some rain and occasional very breezy conditions but nowhere looks like experiencing anything nasty beyond this week with frost looking very unlikely as is widespread fog. Gales look very unlikely too away from the far NW.

 

The Jet Stream blowing to the South of the UK currently migrates North later in the weekend following a period when it falls slack and diffuse. It then settles in a NE direction across or just to the NW of Scotland next week with the UK remaining very much on the mild side.

 

In Summary it seems the persistence of High pressure which has dominated the Summer to the SW and latterly to the East and now expected to the SE will continue to rule the roost across the UK in the foreseeable future keeping the UK locked in a mild and sometimes warm South or SW flow with it's close proximity keeping any meaningful rain beyond this week well away from most of the UK. With High pressure seemingly not allowing the Jet Stream South very much after this week it means that a warm Autumn could well be on the cards unless the pattern breaks soon and that looks unlikely at the moment as the Atlantic looks quite weak for this time of the year with the development of major storm systems looking relatively few at the moment and in any event steered away North by strong High pressure areas at Southerly latitudes.

[Chris K]

Certainly looks like a rinse and repeat sort of pattern continuing with a flow from more of a SW/S direction, switching to a S/SE flow as the High traverses north-eastwards into Europe. Either way it's staying mild for now.

 

Surface weather wise - as others have said the SE currently looks to be the better areas to experience settled weather from the weekend, with more influence from any Atlantic lows to the NW of the UK. Position and strength of any low pressure will be key in how much of the UK stays settled or not. Cloud cover is questionable at this time and as we all know from last week...as much as it was settled, some areas experienced a week of cloud and drizzle most of the time (including myself bar one day)

 

How long it will last? Who knows, but i'd rather have this now than waste cold synoptics at this time

Edited October 1, 2013 by Chris K

[Nick F]

Nothing in the charts to suggest an early cold blast in the offing, in fact quite the opposite. High pressure rebuilds from the southwest this weekend across Europe and S Britain, then a trough amplifies to our west/SW next week with a ridge further west over the NW Atlantic/NE N America - so locked into a mild to warmish flow from the southwest or south as we head through early October. Quite a meridional flow pattern over the N Atlantic ahead, with the UK on the warm side of the trough/ridge.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Nick F

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a very settled and very warm outlook for the time of year the further south you are but even central parts of the uk would do well out of this, even the north of the uk would do ok compared to recent output. First of all, the azores anticyclone builds in strongly from the southwest during the weekend and from around T+120 hours it's an increasingly warm, sunny and frankly, quite incredible spell as we would be well into october by then. There is a certain defiance from the azores high this year that was largely missing last year and with the formation of a large euro high, the onset of genuine autumnal weather will very probably be put on hold for a good while longer, enjoy the sun and the warmth while you can because it looks as though we are going to squeeze every bit of warmth and fine weather before the pattern eventually changes but lord knows when that will be. 

Edited October 1, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

9th to 17th looks very dry for a lot of England and wales with hardly any rain best make the most of any rain over the next 48 hours or so

 

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z operational run shows a lot of fine, sunny and for the time of year, very warm weather ahead of us from the weekend onwards, especially the further south & east you are, further west and north it becomes unsettled and windier at times but very mild and there is also a spell of much warmer and sunnier weather later next week, all in all, these synoptics are more like summer than the first half of october, on this run we flirt with a breakdown from the west but then there is a reboot of the current pattern with another surge of very warm air pumping up from the south as a trough becomes anchored to the southwest of the uk and continental high pressure moves closer, this persists well into the low res and frankly, the 6z has no idea how the warm weather pattern will be finally broken down, it could last into the second half of october.

[Yarmy]

Having a hard time reconciling the MetO 6-15 dayer with the charts I'm looking at:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

"Through the first half of next week, the unsettled weather in the northwest may push gradually southeastwards across the UK, though the far southeast is likely to remain largely dry and fine. Through the rest of the period, largely unsettled, with outbreaks of rain, the most unsettled weather generally towards the northwest."

 

Obviously they have more tools available, but the block just looks a lot more formidable than that would suggest.

MOGREPS saying something different?

[Frosty.]

A much more stable looking GEFS 06z mean compared to the op, this is more in line with the ecm 0z mean and shows a prolonged fine and unusually warm spell for the first half of october (apart from the next few days) with increasingly benign conditions returning across most of the uk from the weekend and especially throughout next week with the airmass sourced from southern europe. Only the far northwest of the uk looks like being troubled by low pressure to any degree once the current unsettled spell is over, summery charts for the south & east in particular.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Having a hard time reconciling the MetO 6-15 dayer with the charts I'm looking at:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

"Through the first half of next week, the unsettled weather in the northwest may push gradually southeastwards across the UK, though the far southeast is likely to remain largely dry and fine. Through the rest of the period, largely unsettled, with outbreaks of rain, the most unsettled weather generally towards the northwest."

 

Obviously they have more tools available, but the block just looks a lot more formidable than that would suggest.

MOGREPS saying something different?

I think the words may push gradually southeastwards is very telling, uncertainty creeping into the met office terminology I think, the ens mean look solid for a warm settled outlook away from the far northwest.

[phil nw.]

Closing this thread in a minute.

Ok this one locked now.

 

New thread over here. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78005-model-output-discussion-12hrs-011013/