Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06Z mean shows a return of pleasantly warm and settled weather from next weekend onwards for the southern half of the uk, especially the further east and south you are, lots of sunshine, lighter sw'ly winds and very mild for early october as the azores high builds in and the further outlook continues very mild to rather warm with sunny spells and light winds thanks to a large continental anticyclone extending it's influence into the uk and the benign spell could persist until at least mid october and possibly beyond.

 

It's a different story for the northwest of the uk where atlantic lows will continue to target nw scotland with occasional active fronts brushing across the far northwest and north along with strong sw'ly winds at times. 

 

So, in summary, unsettled for most of this week and there is a risk of torrential rain and localized flooding for parts of the south and west on wed/thurs in particular, the far northeast holding on to fine but increasingly windy weather for longest, then by friday the weather looks like possibly beginning to settle down further south but with heavy showers across the far northwest, then it's a nw/se split but with the southeast split covering a large area of the uk, only n.ireland, northern & western scotland look like continuing on the unsettled side throughout.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[Paul]

Jo's first week ahead video is now online - view it here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5433;sess=

[Frosty.]

Just comparing the GEFS 06z mean & ECM 00z ensemble mean (charts I posted further up the page) against the latest met office update today shows similarities in that the further southeast you live, the longer the fine and pleasant spell will last from the weekend onwards, however, the met office are continuing to predict cooler, windier and more unsettled weather pushing southeastwards across most of the uk except perhaps the southeastern corner of the uk by the end of next week.

 

So, the further southeast you are, the longer the fine and pleasant spell would last, along with slightly above average temperatures, so the met office are a bit more bullish about a cool unsettled further outlook from during the course of next week and beyond compared to the rather more benign looking ens mean output for the southern half of the BI for the period from saturday 5th october until around mid month, but of course we don't get to see what mogreps is showing.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Just comparing the GEFS 06z mean & ECM 00z ensemble mean (charts I posted further up the page) against the latest met office update today shows similarities in that the further southeast you live, the longer the fine and pleasant spell will last from the weekend onwards, however, the met office are continuing to predict cooler, windier and more unsettled weather pushing southeastwards across the whole of the uk by the end of next week but that the further southeast you are, the longer the fine and pleasant spell would last, along with slightly above average temperatures, so the met office are a bit more bullish about a cool unsettled further outlook from during the course of next week and beyond compared to the rather more benign looking ens mean output for the southern half of the BI for period from saturday until around mid month, but of course we don't get to see what mogreps is showing.

Interesting to note that only a few days ago the whole of the following week was going to be cool and unsettled and a few days before that the weather was set to be unsettled after the rain this week cleared through. The unsettled and cooler weather keeps getting put back day by day at the moment. 

[Frosty.]

Interesting to note that only a few days ago the whole of the following week was going to be cool and unsettled and a few days before that the weather was set to be unsettled after the rain this week cleared through. The unsettled and cooler weather keeps getting put back day by day at the moment. 

True, hopefully the delay will continue, I reckon the southeastern half or quarter of england which includes the triangle of doom  is in for a spell of very nice weather from the 5th (saturday) until the 11th-12th oct at least.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

NAO continues to move back towards positive territory

 

 

For those who don't know how it works

 

During what scientists call a positive NAO, pressures in the Azores high are especially high and pressures in the Icelandic low are lower than normal.

 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Keep the positive news coming gavin :- )

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z operational run was very interesting in that the cooler, unsettled weather took the whole run (16 days) to finally reach the southeast and even that is touch and go, high pressure to the south/se keeps the PFJ and the unsettled weather further north and west. The fine and pleasantly warm spell for the south at the weekend and into next week looks nailed on now.

[draztik]

Looking at the recent output, it looks like N.I. and Scotland, will see a lot of rainfall for the foreseeable, while the Midlands and further South will fair best in terms of warmth and dry weather. This seems to be the trend, with the Bartlett High moving nowhere fast.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Edited September 30, 2013 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a decent weekend is on the cards especially for England and Wales

 

 

As usual GFS continues to lag behind

 

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z operational run is pretty good looking the further southeast you are with only brief unsettled blips compared to the north & west of the uk, high pressure builds in across the south from saturday and temperatures become summer like towards the southeast of the uk with temperatures nudging into the low 20's celsius, temperatures nearer average further north and west and progressively more unsettled and windier with low pressure to the northwest but high pressure across the near continent could protect the southeastern corner of england from most of the bad weather, right through to the middle of october, If I lived in the southeast, I would be delighted with this run overall because temps of 72F are not to be sniffed at in early october.

[phil nw.]

Certainly areas further west in Scotland and over N.Ireland would expect more rainfall than anywhere else in the forecasted pattern but often E.Scotland being more sheltered can be drier,

The fohn effect of the SW winds warming on the leeward side of the Highlands can see places like Moray and Aberdeen turn out quite warm too.

We can see those sub-tropical sourced winds on the ECM mean for next week flooding in from the SW.

 

Ens.graphs continue to show a lot of dry days in the first part of October with some quite warm days,especially for London. 

 

 

Sheltered eastern and southern areas of the UK will always be more favoured for the brightest and warmest days in this setup.

Edited September 30, 2013 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

The UKMO 12z  is looking good tonight, especially by T+144 hours, high pressure building in strongly from the southwest across southern uk and becoming warm with temps into the 70's F..I imagine that T+168 would look even better for the south/se of the BI..summer temps to make a comeback then..

[Summer Sun]

After an unsettled week ECM continues to show high pressure building in from Saturday

 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

That ECM chart for Sunday looks good, with high 850 hPa temperatures that could support some unseasonably warm surface temperatures, but I just wonder if we would have problems with cloud again in that setup.

[Summer Sun]

That ECM chart for Sunday looks good, with high 850 hPa temperatures that could support some unseasonably warm surface temperatures, but I just wonder if we would have problems with cloud again in that setup.

 

Yes I think we may see some cloud in the west given it will contain a lot of moisture east of the pennines should be less cloudy

[Scorcher]

Yes I think we may see some cloud in the west given it will contain a lot of moisture east of the pennines should be less cloudy

 

Then again last weekend (21st/22nd) we did have plenty of breaks on this side of the Pennines in a similar setup, despite the moisture, more than the BBC anticipated anyway. In fact that weekend we fared better than the South East for sunshine so it's hard to say.

[Captain Shortwave]

That ECM chart for Sunday looks good, with high 850 hPa temperatures that could support some unseasonably warm surface temperatures, but I just wonder if we would have problems with cloud again in that setup.

Always the problem at this time of year, might not be so bad given there is at least a breeze to break the cloud up

Well the ECM wants the high to get in properly here

 

.

[Summer Sun]

Then again last weekend (21st/22nd) we did have plenty of breaks on this side of the Pennines in a similar setup, despite the moisture, more than the BBC anticipated anyway. In fact that weekend we fared better than the South East for sunshine so it's hard to say.

 

Yeah cloud cover can be a right pain to predict hopefully everyone will get some warm sunshine whilst the days are still long enough

 

Into next week and the high looks set in place sending any lows north of the UK with only northern Scotland getting any effects of these

 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is a STONKER..high pressure looks very strong next week with the fine and warm spell spreading even further north & west, for the south/se of the uk it looks like becoming warm and sunny during the weekend and continuing fine, sunny and warm for much of next week..maybe all next week with max temps nudging into the low 20's c, you can add at least 3c to those 12pm temps which would make it a very summer like early october indeed, this 12z mean is a cracker.

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Well if it was mid summer this chart and especially the next chart would be an absolute stonker. Unseasonably warm southerly coming up.

Pretty good

 

 

14C uppers into southern England, must be pretty rare for what would be approaching mid-October 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Nice to see you back in the mild club for now frosty you didn't go to the cold side for long

 

t192 and t216 show no let up with the high pressure as it builds strongly over mainland Europe and the UK giving some warm southerly winds with any sunshine it won't feel like Autumn during the day it will probably feel more like summer

 

 

A big improvement on the 00z if you (like me) want to see this settled weather continuing

 

 

All in all Autumn remains on hold for those seeking stormy weather

 

T240 shows no let-up in sight with some very warm uppers for the time of year covering all the UK

 

Edited September 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[smithyweather]

 

Well if it was mid summer this chart and especially the next chart would be an absolute stonker. Unseasonably warm southerly coming up.

Pretty good

 

 

14C uppers into southern England, must be pretty rare for what would be approaching mid-October 

Thankfully the -5c uppers are only about 300 miles away.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby growing signs of another spell of fine and potentially exceptionally warm conditions next week especially if ECM will have us believe

 

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday September 30th 2013.All models continue to show a warm and moist SE flow over the UK with weakening troughs edging into the SW repeatedly over the coming days gradually becoming more active and penetrative into other areas away from the SW by midweek with the occasional rain becoming heavier and more widespread by midweek. On Thursday a very wet day is likely as a thundery disturbance runs North from Spain and France up across the UK giving the chance of some disruptive rainfall in places. Once passed the weather will calm down as winds veer West and clearer and fresher conditions move across from the West to all areas by the weekend.

 

GFS then shows a drier interlude across Southern and Eastern England and Wales with some sunshine in shelter with temperatures on the mild side still. In the North and West a windier spell is expected still with occasional rain and a fresh breeze across the North and West. This then extends to other areas later next week as a series of troughs and Low pressure areas swing NE across the UK in more average temperatures. the heaviest rain and strongest winds will remain towards the NW.

 

UKMO closes it's run tonight with a quiet and settled end to next weekend with dry and bright weather with respectable temperatures for October. Only the far NW will likely see any rainfall. The night's will be chilly with the risk of mist and fog in the South.

 

GEM tonight also shows a dry and bright interlude in the South next weekend in an otherwise changeable run with some rain at times shown for all with the heaviest of this in the North and West where gales can be expected as well at times.

 

NAVGEM looks like the weather will be staying on the warm side with a light SW flow around High pressure to the SE. the NW will see cloudy weather with occasional rain while the SE could see some warm susnhine.ECM shows yet another quiet and generally mild spell coming up once we have removed this weeks changeable and sometimes wet weather. With winds becoming light and the air inherently warm temperatures will be well above average in places with night's rather cooler with mist and fog patches expected. As we move into next week

 

ECM goes one step further suggesting that things may become exceptionally warm with some sunshine in the South 

 

The GFS Ensembles show no real sign of anything remotely deep Autumnal with relatively mild and benign weather for the South in particular and nothing out of the ordinary for the North either. Apart from Thursday rainfall amounts will be relatively small with many dry days in the South.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow that's currently to the South of Britain migrating further North at the end of this week where it becomes persistent at a position crossing NW Scotland moving NE through next week.

 

In Summary tonight it looks like this week's push into more unsettled weather with some potentially heavy rain especially on Thursday will just be a blip as there are growing signs of yet another spell of fine and potentially exceptionally warm conditions next week especially if ECM will have us believe. Almost all models show at least a temporary period of dry and bright weather across Southern and Eastern Britain while the North and West look like seeing the best chance of keeping cloudy and less mild conditions with rain at times and perhaps strong winds too.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Edited September 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

Well, we're now in the only time of year where neither very cold or very warm conditions are possible. Personally I like to keep it as warm as possible until mid-October, just to get one last feeling of something summery before the cold sets in for the next 5 months (except for last year when it was 6 months!). So tonight's output is encouraging, especially the ECM - let's hope there isn't too much cloud associated with this one:

 

Polar vortex starting to get its act together