Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[draztik]

Based on the ECM 0z, next week will be a fairly cloudy affair, with the best of any sunny spells in the North & NW into the weekend and Monday. Into Tuesday and further on, the fortunes turn, with the west & north becoming fairly wet.. with the driest conditions in the south east corner, though it will stay generally cloudy here. By the following wkend the SE could expect some rain too.

Edited September 25, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a locked in warm pattern for the foreseeable future with low pressure to the west/sw of the BI and high pressure to the east with warm southerly winds continuing to pump up from spain & north africa, occasionally a stronger breeze from south of east, sometimes a lighter breeze from the south and eventually trending more towards a brisk breeze from south of west, all of these bring very mild air, indeed it's essentially very warm and humid air with sunny spells and a risk of heavy showers, even a risk of scattered thunderstorms, the pattern is summery and the synoptics shown would bring a scorcher in summer but we are now well into autumn, even so, low to mid 20's celsius sounds realistic when you remember that october's past have brought temps of 27c with very similar charts to these.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

_{It looks as though the LP is making more of an inroad into the UK on the GFS06Z,}

Edited September 25, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Mark Neal.]

Certainly more east on this GFS 6Z, though still settled to the East and ain't making too much progress it seems.

[Captain Shortwave]

_{It looks as though the LP is making more of an inroad into the UK on the GFS06Z, certainly in the latter half of the timeframe.}

The GFS 06Z run has the low furthest East in a Scandi high set up. This phrase is going to used a lot over the coming 6 months I think 

(unless there are no Scandi highs of course)

Edited September 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS 06Z run has the low furthest East in a Scandi high set up. This phrase is going to used a lot over the coming 6 months I think 

 

yeah and most of the time it will prob end up in tears and tantrums

[Mark Neal.]

Pressure build from the South & SW. @ 228HRS 

However looks slow progress, that High in Atlantic gonna head our way soon after perhaps, aided by that Low pressure to the NW, moving North-Eastwards.

 

Edited September 25, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z operational run shows the warm spell lasting for around the next 10 days, eventually the pattern is finally shunted east but doesn't represent a significant pattern change, more of a reboot of the current pattern really with high pressure building in again and the pattern returning to benign mode although it would be cooler than before with a higher risk of slight frosts and thick fog.

 

The next 10 days show winds from the southeast, south and southwest drawing very mild air from either southern europe or the azores, so temperatures would be generally above the seasonal average with some very warm days for the time of year, the weather pattern has a summery look about it and on this run, there are no signs of change in the reliable timeframe so this means warmth, humidity, sunshine, heavy showers with a risk of thunder but at least there should be enough breeze to reduce the risk of fog.

 

There is really very little difference between this run and the ecm 0z op & 0z ens mean, they all look warm for the foreseeable future.

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So the theme continues this morning, with the models showing the low pressure system in the Atlantic unable to make any significant advance towards the UK proper, as high pressure over Europe keeps it at bay. So, like since late May - we continue to be ruled, in some way, by a stubborn ridge of HP, which is keeping us mild, and fairly dry. Looking at FI there is little hope of any substantial rainfall as we move into October that I can see. It just goes on!

the gfs ens show a fall in pressure for a time for London, but rises again from the 3rd Oct. Spikes in rainfall are minimal.

 

 

And as a general theme I think its pointing in the right direction.  Don't put bbq's away yet folks

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Don't put bbq's away yet folks

 

BFTP

at least for the next 10 days..

Edited September 25, 2013 by Frosty.

[simshady]

And as a general theme I think its pointing in the right direction.  Don't put bbq's away yet folks

 

BFTP

 

well if it's all anything like today here..i'll be BBQ' ing in the drizzle under a leaden coloured sky with a fleece on.

[cobbett]

at least for the next 10 days..

Latest Meto outlook still going for rain in south and gales in western areas for next week - confusing

[DTHFCJ]

well if it's all anything like today here..i'll be BBQ' ing in the drizzle under a leaden coloured sky with a fleece on.

Waterproofs and wellies at the ready according to the latest MO update still itl feel pleasantly warm in the waterproofs sweating and downing a burger ...

[Frosty.]

Latest Meto outlook still going for rain in south and gales in western areas for next week - confusing

wow really, I haven't checked it yet, the update is changing every day so perhaps it's not surprising.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Waterproofs and wellies at the ready according to the latest MO update still itl feel pleasantly warm in the waterproofs sweating and downing a burger ...

yep and manchester is notorious for it's drizzle.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Latest Meto outlook still going for rain in south and gales in western areas for next week - confusing

 

The ECM and GEFS ensemble mean both show the LP further East than there op runs. The GFS 06z op run also had the LP further East than last nights 00Z run. Could be also be what the meteo are thinking going by there update?

[Frosty.]

The latest met office update is broadly speaking as yesterday and very much as the gfs 06z & ecm 00z op and ens mean shows with the main focus of the heavier rain becoming concentrated across the western side of the uk although all areas have unsettled spells, at least the temperatures are still expected to be on the warm side of average and feeling warm, especially during sunny spells between the showers and more persistent rain, it's not bad really, the further east/se you are, the longer the dry and sunnier, very warm spells would be, there is still that hint of rather colder weather later which today's Gfs 06z op run shows beyond T+240 hours.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

at least for the next 10 days..

 

I'll go as far as saying maybe not until end of 2nd week of Oct.....and I hope so, got a family get together weekend of 12th.

 

BFTP

[Chris K]

Taking parts of the update discussed above:

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Sep 2013 to Wednesday 9 Oct 2013:

"The unsettled regime looks likely to continue through the rest of this period though the rain will be interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes"

and

"However, temperatures are likely to be above normal and it may feel warm at times, especially in central, eastern and southern areas. Through the following weekend it may turn somewhat colder generally, especially for northwestern areas."

It kind of matches up to the GFS 06z run for early next week?? ECM is pretty close to but keeps the windy weather further west. Rainfall looks showery in nature but being a 5 days + away that could change to anything (or nothing!)

To me it sounds perfectly reasonable as the trough tries to repeatedly go against the High to our NE/E, then getting held back and pushed W and eventually N'wards, before another tries to swing towards the UK again. This squeezes the isobars on the pressure charts indiciating a stronger breeze at times, with perhaps some stronger winds on western coasts. The more east you are, the more likely it'll be warmer and drier at this stage.

All based on today's update and morning model runs, so how far east any low pressure has influence will chop and change each day. It doesn't look like any washout and it will still be drier at times with mild temperatures. Certainly nothing set in stone as I am sure you are all aware.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Chris K

[Frosty.]

It's as you were from the GEFS 06Z mean, as per the met office update and the ecm 0z mean with a prolonged warm spell ahead due to winds originating in north africa and then drifting up through spain, france in a modified form but essentially the same type of weather with temperatures above the seasonal average and very much on the warm side at times, the airflow eventually veers more to a southwesterly so we swap the african winds for the azores instead, not changing the temperatures much at all. it's not until much further ahead when low pressure to the northwest can force itself further east and introduce a cooler, fresher westerly or northwesterly flow but that's way off in the dim and distant future in meteorological terms.

 

In the reliable and semi reliable timeframe the uk weather will gradually come under the control of a large slow moving atlantic depression to the southwest of the uk with increasingly unsettled, breezier weather but warm and humid with the best of the dry weather and sunshine further east/se, there will be showers and more persistent rain at times, some of it heavy with thunder and occasionally windy across the south and especially the west.

[Joe8987]

This weather is just awful, sweaty and humid, can't wait for some proper cold weather.

[Frosty.]

Today's Gfs 12z operational run follows the pattern of the previous runs so far today in that it shows an increasingly unsettled pattern with strong winds at times but those winds are generally from either south of east, due south or south of west for at least the next 10 days with temperatures on the warm side of average and in the drier and sunnier spells between the heavy thundery showers and more persistent rain it will be feeling very warm for the time of year with temperatures well into the 70's F but generally in the high teens to low 20's c. During next week the 12z shows a tightening up of the isobars as the controlling atlantic depression edges closer and high pressure to the east does likewise, it creates a spell of strong to gale force SE'ly winds for the north & east of the uk along with heavy rain as fronts try to push further east but stall, that could be a big problem next week if fronts do stall coming up against the block to the east. Later in the run there is a brief amplification of the upstream pattern bringing the first polar maritime blast of the season as low pressure to the north finally pushes further east and there would be wintry showers across the hills and mountains in scotland and overnight slight frosts but guess what happens next..a reboot with almost a carbon copy of the current weather and the south never really feels the pinch of that very cool snap which mainly affects the north of the uk, at least the met office hint of a colder shot for the northwest is again showing on the gfs 12z, as it did on the 6z.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

This weather is just awful, sweaty and humid, can't wait for some proper cold weather.

I think we still need to wait about a month until we can get some proper cold to be honest. September isn't exactly renowned for being cold and neither is early October to be honest.

I do wish the showers for the weekend could get an extra northerly push so they affect more than the south coast. Otherwise the weekend looks pretty dry and I'm sure there would be some sunshine for many. Temperatures for the next week look mild to warm away from windward coasts where it will be a little cooler.

Kind of sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for something to happen, warm, cold, wet, sunny, thunder, snow. When this finally snaps we will definitely notice it.

Good work by the ECM by the way, spotted next weeks pattern out at 9/10 days away, recovering from some woeful performances over the summer along with the other models.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather are showing a 3 way split this weekend, heavy showers, bright and breezy and light rain

 

[Gaz1985]

It's almost an extended Summer, it's like revenge for the extended Winter we endured! Hopefully the very mild weather will last. Looking quite dry here too 

 

Edited September 25, 2013 by Gaz1985