Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->


Methuselah

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

I think a strong northerly blast further east would do the trick during october.

That would be good, as is often the case though with PM cold, it is very often associated with a strong jet, so it could all be swept away as quick as it arrived. A stubborn blocking high from Scandi, over to Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland would enable longevity and much, much deeper cold too, especially if fruition occurred Late November-Early December.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Heh typical really

Posted Image

 

The last few days perfect upper ridge and hot uppers, but a slack and murky surface pattern. Coming weekend into next week, weaker and cooler upper ridge but the perfect surface conditions. Standard for the UK, still would creep into the low 20s on these charts but still it's kind of frustrating.

Posted Image

 

Lols

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t192 sees the high to the east moving a bit further south we however remain under warm uppers

 

Posted Image

 

The cold uppers just showing hints of relaxing slightly in the east as well

 

t168, t192 & t216 side by side to compare

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Heh typical really

Posted Image

 

The last few days perfect upper ridge and hot uppers, but a slack and murky surface pattern. Coming weekend into next week, weaker and cooler upper ridge but the perfect surface conditions. Standard for the UK, still would creep into the low 20s on these charts but still it's kind of frustrating.

Posted Image

 

Lols

 

Still great charts if you want the warm conditions to go on for a bit longer- it certainly looks as if the last week of September will turn out warm in terms of the CET and it could well continue into October with such a pattern seemingly established.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Cool uppers continue to ease in the east whilst the UK gets even warmer at t216

 

Posted Image

 

+12 uppers moving in

 

Posted Image

 

quite wet possibly in the west but drier further east

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Still great charts if you want the warm conditions to go on for a bit longer- it certainly looks as if the last week of September will turn out warm in terms of the CET and it could well continue into October with such a pattern seemingly established.

Just a little frustrating, the last few days have been hindered by a poor surface pattern, typical that the following weekend we pretty much develop the perfect southerly flow which if it happened over the last few days would have delivered sparkling blue skies and widespread mid/high twenties in temperatures. Most of this ECM run has winds sourced from the Straights of Gibraltar, typical. que sera sera and all that. Posted Image

Still this would give bright, breezy and warm weather to those away from any frontal systems which might be present.

Front finally pushes through by day 10 but the upstream pattern isn't exactly shouting unsettled

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The low what was in the Atlantic moved away at t240

 

Posted Image

 

Slightly cooler in the far west but remaining warm in the south and east

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

Good evening everyone. Here's my take on the noon outputs of the regular models for this evening Tuesday September 24th 2013.All models show a fairly slow deterioration of what will become a rather static pattern of Low pressure to the SW and High to the NE of the UK with a relatively warm and often humid SE flow over the UK. Fog overnight will be an issue for a while longer before more of a SE breeze should blow this away later in the week. The patchy rain or showers already in evidence to the North and SW will gradually increase in magnitude and extent over the latter end of the week and most especially over the weekend. Some of the rain may be heavy and possibly accompanied by thunder most likely towards the South and West of the UK while more Northern and NE areas look like seeing rather less in the way of rain.

 

GFS then shows next week as rather unsettled with warm and moist but light winds continuing to feed up from the SW carrying outbreaks of rain or showers too. Later in the week the weather picks up with sunny spells becoming increasingly evident as pressure builds in from the Atlantic with a quiet Autumn spell to end the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows low pressure out in the Atlantic feeding a SE flow up across the UK with troughs in tow bringing spells of thundery rain North at times, especially in the South while more Northern areas may not see as much rain. It will stay reasonably warm in the SE breeze away from windward coasts.

 

GEM tonight still looks the most active model in developing Low pressure deeply out to the SW and swinging various centres North close to the West Coast of Britain with heavy rain at times for all and potential gales affecting the far West over the period.

 

NAVGEM shows an unstable SE then South feed with a strong High over Europe and Low pressure in the Atlantic. With warm and moisture laden air feeding South over the UK with bands of rain and heavy showers moving steadily North across the UK, chiefly in the West

 

.ECM tonight shows a sustained period of moist and unstable Southerly winds as Low pressure continues to dominate the Atlantic through next week. All areas will remain at risk from quite heavy and potentially thundery rain at times with some brief drier interludes in between with the emphasis of rain shifting from the South and West towards the North and West late in the run as winds veer more towards the West. Temperatures look like holding close to average in prolonged rainy periods to somewhat above average temperatures during the drier interludes.

 

The GFS Ensembles show the gradient of cooler uppers affecting the UK has become less steep tonight with many members keeping uppers above average now almost to the end of the run. Occasional rain is commonplace throughout the period from the 29th in the Southeast and somewhat before in the West.

 

The Jet Stream forecast shows the now weakened flow to the North decaying away to nothing as a new arm sets up to the SW of the UK by the weekend. Next week sees a split flow developing with one arm crossing East to the North of the UK while the Southern arm stays to the South of Britain.

 

In Summary tonight it looks like a period of unsettled conditions with warm and humid Southerly winds looking like being the most likely option. Low pressure is likely to be anchored out in the Atlantic while High pressure over Europe is equally persistent. The most rainfall is likely to affect the South and West in particular though nowhere is immune. However, there will be some drier and brighter interludes when it will feel quite warm and humid.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The ecm @216, ok FI so subject to a lot of change, but if that came off an awful lot of rain for some folk in the Uk, Probably the Western side would be plaqued by very slow moving fronts! Just glad its in the unreliable timeframe!!

post-6830-0-01964000-1380049731_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Posted Image

this was the setup this time last year... Somehow i think this autumn will be very different. The ensembles had been showing a rather unsettled picture recently.. But as each day passes, you just feel its a case of so close, and yet so far (if you're aching for autumn to kick in, that is)

Edited by draztik
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking a little further ahead, a southeasterly breeze will freshen on friday but with well broken clouds and long sunny spells and feeling warm with temps in the high teens celsius but later on friday, heavy showers will spread into southwest england and the showers are then likely to spread further east and north across the rest of southern britain on saturday, some heavy with thunder but with sunny periods between and feeling warm and humid, central and northern uk look fine on saturday.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A very static set up - with low pressure unusually stuck it seems in situ to our west coming unstuck against a block to our east, we're quite fortunate not to be under the influence of the low at present - would only take heights to shift a bit further east we could have been seeing a very unsettled picture indeed with the trough stuck over the country.

 

Alas the outcome is a very mild muggy but bery tedious spell of weather it has to be said.

 

With little energy over the atlantic it looks like we will see the month out on a very benign note with the country stuck in no-mans land, charts you'd expect to see more in Spring than late September.

 

October traditionally sees the atlantic move into proper autumn gear..

 

I said in my last post September often delivers a spell of very tedious non-interesting weather tame weather.. as the song goes wake me up when September ends...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Only 6 days to go Damian, plus a bucket load of ACE in the post... lots of weather to look forward to

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Once the wind picks up it won't be too bad, should shift this stubborn low cloud for a start. Rain or showers (some heavy and thundery) mixed with sunny spells in between. In a southerly wind it will feel pleasant enough. I think it's a decent compromise to those who want a late taste of summer and those who want unsettled weather. Best of both worlds, and most of us won't have to put the heating on for a couple more weeks. Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Spot on captain, something for everyone by the weekend and the same goes for next week with warmth, sunshine, thundery showers but thankfully enough breeze to keep the fog away.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Plenty of warmth being modelled wafting up from the continent heading towards the weekend as the winds back towards the south/south east.

 

Posted Imagegfs-1-96.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-96.png

 

with drier continental air in the mix there should be more chance of clearer skies and sunshine with max's.reaching high teens widely with possibly 20C in the south.

That Biscay low could well throw some showery rain towards southern and southern western areas later though. 

 

Looking at the ens graph- for Manchester this time- shows a rather dry outlook as we go into early October with temperatures staying well up for the time of year.

Posted ImageMS_Manchester_avn (1).png

 

This is supported by earlier ens means which indicate the UK remaining on the warm side of an Atlantic trough which develops next week.

Posted ImageReem1921.gif

 

all in all quite a decent outlook with no sign yet of the Atlantic jet firing up.

 

cant say much more then this.. :)

 

and has been pointed out by frosty, the expected breeze should break the cloud and lift the chances of fog trouble.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 00z operational is a very warm run for the end of september / early october, winds sourced from spain/africa..get the BBQ outPosted Image balmy warmth, humidity, sunshine and a risk of thundery showers and generally enough breeze to keep fog at bay, max temps into the low 20's celsius, nearer mid 20's c at times, hey that's not bad for this time of year, the ecm pattern looks like it would persist for some time with a trough to the southwest and the warm air continually pumping up from southern europe, if this was july/august the max temps would be in the mid 30's celsius.

post-4783-0-77530600-1380095650_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-65222400-1380095656_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-74376400-1380095659_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-68812000-1380095670_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-36724600-1380095684_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-30433100-1380095698_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-88511400-1380095703_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-23348700-1380095719_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-52224300-1380095726_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-45352100-1380095950_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-60204100-1380095960_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-17075500-1380095974_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-42759300-1380095978_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-92783400-1380095993_thumb.pn

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

So the theme continues this morning, with the models showing the low pressure system in the Atlantic unable to make any significant advance towards the UK proper, as high pressure over Europe keeps it at bay. So, like since late May - we continue to be ruled, in some way, by a stubborn ridge of HP, which is keeping us mild, and fairly dry. Looking at FI there is little hope of any substantial rainfall as we move into October that I can see. It just goes on!

Posted Image

the gfs ens show a fall in pressure for a time for London, but rises again from the 3rd Oct. Spikes in rainfall are minimal.

Edited by draztik
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Another good run this morning with high pressure to our east stopping any deep lows getting in this results in the mild humid conditions persisting

 

In FI we have this from GFS

 

Posted Image
Posted Image
Posted Image
Posted Image
Posted Image
Posted Image

 

Very few signs of Atlantic storms getting in so this quiet weather looks like staying for the foreseeable future

 

Posted Image

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well at least the predicted pattern for next week whilst being quite settled shows enough movement to avoid low cloud and fog forming as well as still bringing the threat of rain at times, though those in the south east apart from a few thundery showers potentially this weekend might avoid the rain altogether.

ECM offers very little joy for those of the wet and wild disposition 

Posted Image

 

At day 10 you would be looking at a rinse and repeat situation setting up with a new trough to the south west building a new ridge near the UK, GFS also showing a pressure rise of sorts by this time. Still it could all change and maybe low pressure might struggle over the UK in due course.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

Good morning folks. Here is the daily morning look at the midnight outputs issued by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday September 25th 2013.

 

All models indicate a warm South or SE feed across the UK between Low pressure down to the SW and High to the East. This pattern changes little over the coming days with a trend for Low pressure to edge closer to Southern Britain by and over the weekend with a stronger risk of rain at times than is shown currently. The North on the other hand will see the current occasional rain slip a little further South with much cooler conditions for a time before milder SE winds push back North later with just a little rain more likely in the West of this area.

 

GFS then shows a changeable pattern next week as Low pressure slowly migrates North and East to the West of the UK turning winds from the SE towards a Westerly point. Through this period all areas are still at risk of some rain but Eastern and NE areas may not fair badly with a lot of dry and still reasonably warm weather to be found. With the Low to the SW moved NE it opens the door for the Azores High to build again across Britain for the countless number of times over the last three or four months which would return fine and dry conditions for most with reasonable day temperatures but mist and foggy nights likely again too. Any cloud and rain would then become restricted to the far NW of Britain.

 

UKMO today shows an undercutting development with energy from Low pressure to the SW sliding East across France keeping Southern Britain at risk to rain at times, some of which would be heavy as fronts edge North. The North would become or stay largely dry as High pressure out to the East extends a ridge West towards Scotland with all areas experiencing winds from an Easterly point.

 

GEM today shows High pressure over Scandiavia towards midweek next week while Low pressure out to the West and SW continues to spin troughs up across the South and West of the UK. Rain at times would occur here with misty conditions in often leaden skies. Further north and East conditions will be drier but here too a lot of cloud and a little rain is possible at times. Fresher cleaner air could reach the SW at the end of the run as winds begin to turn towards the SW.

 

NAVGEM shows High pressure slipping South over Europe next week with the persitent Atlantic Low pressure to the West filling and moving slowly North. The net result would be for winds to turn from SE to SW with time with the occasional rain in the South and West transferring more towards the NW while Southern and Eastern areas could potentially become dry and warmer again later next week.

 

ECM is broadly similar as it too has Low pressure filling and moving NE to the West of the UK while High pressure over Europe extends a finger towards Southern Britain with a warm SW flow developing with the rain of early in the week in the South and West extending North to the NW but leaving the South and East relatively dry and possibly bright by the end of the week.

 

The GFS Ensembles show that warm weather is expected to persist over the Uk for the coming two weeks. A slow leak of warmth is shown over the period but even by the end of the run there is good support for a maintained spell of uppers above average. Rainfall amounts are showing a continued trend to lessen in amount from previous outputs especially later in the run and in the SE.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow developing to the South of the UK over France for the next three to four days before this pattern weakens as a new arm now has good support for reforming at more northerly latitudes to the North of Scotland

later next week.

 

In Summary today the programmed breakdown in the weather continues to be watered down with every run. The culprit is High pressure over Europe which maintains a ridge West across Scotland early next week with rain from the Low pressure areas to the SW affecting Southern Britain at times. The High transfers South over Europe by the end of next week as Low pressure to the West fills and moves North. Winds then shift SW and a more NW/SE split develops with the South and East seeing the best of by then dry, bright and mild weather close to the High pressure ridge extending from Southeast Europe while the NW stay at risk from rain bearing troughs crossing by on occasion. Given the time of year and as a result of all this it looks unlikely there is any particularly inclement Autumn gales and heavy rain to come with the winds maintaining their period of unusually light strengths that we have seen for some considerable time of late.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Who in Norwich, Glasgow and Lerwick fancies -88c (-126F) temperatures

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/431975/A-chilling-weather-forecast-from-BBC-Breakfast-star-Carol-Kirkwood

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Who in Norwich, Glasgow and Lerwick fancies -88c (-126F) temperatures

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/431975/A-chilling-weather-forecast-from-BBC-Breakfast-star-Carol-Kirkwood

cor blimey just imagine the wind chill factorPosted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Who in Norwich, Glasgow and Lerwick fancies -88c (-126F) temperatures

Posted Image

Posted Image

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/431975/A-chilling-weather-forecast-from-BBC-Breakfast-star-Carol-Kirkwood

She's hinting at this coming winter,look at her face,shes busting to tell lol
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...