Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Summer Sun]

21st to 27th has good ensemble support for well above average uppers after the 27th they drop to average so remaining pleasant into October

 

 

Aberdeen shows more scatter for next week but even here it turns warmer than average with well above normal uppers

 

[Frosty.]

What's the best way to follow on from a spectacular Ecm 00z ensemble mean?....with a superb Gfs 06z of course  through the high res and well into the low res, high pressure rules supreme, I reckon we will have at least a week of warm or very warm and mainly sunny weather before there is any hint of a breakdown, The 6z op run shows a block forming and this could mean that any potential breakdown from the west could stall and be deflected north with high pressure filling the gap again, through the high res, the 6z shows high pressure slowly becoming centred just to the east of the uk which enables very warm continental air to drift up and across the uk and reinforce the already warm and settled pattern, so, from friday onwards it looks increasingly settled and this becomes even more widespread through the weekend with the far northwest the last to improve due to low pressure and fronts brushing past nw scotland but once that low is gone, we will all be very settled, very warm for the time of year and very sunny, what more could we want in late september..bring it on.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows rock solid support for a prolonged, very settled and warm spell with lots of sunshine and light winds, the only blot on the horizon is a chance of slightly less settled weather feeding across northern scotland later next week as the main high pressure cell adjusts a little further south but the majority of the BI looks like becoming warm or very warm, locally hot and anticyclonic, and staying that way for the foreseeable future...perfect autumn weather in my book.

[Joe8987]

The GEFS 06z mean shows rock solid support for a prolonged, very settled and warm spell with lots of sunshine and light winds, the only blot on the horizon is a chance of slightly less settled weather feeding across northern scotland later next week as the main high pressure cell adjusts a little further south but the majority of the BI looks like becoming warm or very warm, locally hot and anticyclonic, and staying that way for the foreseeable future...perfect autumn weather in my book.

These charts will never happen though, that's the problem.

[Frosty.]

These charts will never happen though, that's the problem.

Well...the settled spell is only 3 days away so that's well within the reliable timeframe, by friday it looks warmer and sunnier and then it just gets better from there, high pressure looks set to dominate for at least 7-10 days once established, the charts could end up looking better than they do already.

[Bristawl Si]

Well...the settled spell is only 3 days away so that's well within the reliable timeframe, by friday it looks warmer and sunnier and then it just gets better from there, high pressure looks set to dominate for at least 7-10 days once established, the charts could end up looking better than they do already.

Could we have another 2011 scenario developing for late Sept/early Oct?

[Summer Sun]

Could we have another 2011 scenario developing for late Sept/early Oct?

 

Temperature wise probably not (high 20's doesn't look likely mid 20's looks more realistic)

 

But for settled weather and sunshine with very pleasant temperatures yes this cool, wet and windy weather will be gone after Thursday though tomorrow will see a return to blue sky and sunshine so it should feel warmer

[Frosty.]

Could we have another 2011 scenario developing for late Sept/early Oct?

I reckon there is a very good chance considering how the ecm ens mean & gefs mean are currently looking, I have never seen better agreement on a settled spell than this, so yes, i'm quietly confident we are in for something memorable during the next few weeks at least with low to mid 20's celsius for many parts of the uk. Edited September 17, 2013 by Frosty.

[Stormyking]

Looks like good agreement all around for high pressure and warmth lovelyyyy!

 

GFS:

 

 

ECM: 

UKMO:

[Summer Sun]

ECM Glasgow ensemble shows the temperature average hovering very close to average till at least mid October

 

 

Max temps make a very good recovery from this weekend after this unseasonably cool spell

 

[phil nw.]

Some late September warmth could well show it,s hand next week as the current mobile westerly spell dies away by the weekend.

The bulk of the polar vortex modelled over the Pacific side by then allowing thicknesses to rise across Europe as the jet moves well north of the UK. 

Promising T144 Ens.means show a nice build of pressure across the UK and depending on it,s exact positioning could well produce daytime temps approaching the low 20`s.especially further south.

 

 

The Manchester graph underlines the drier and warmer outlook-all this from the overnight runs btw.

 

 

Summer is over but still some warmth to be had it seems-always the caveat of course of cooler nights and mornings with the chance of mist and fog,those details for nearer the time.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

As you were from GFS

 

 

No change from UKMO either

 

 

Looking very likely now were going to enter another period of warm settled weather

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

The latest NOAA assesment and prediction for Humberto out to T+120

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/171457.shtml?

[The PIT]

Sadly T372 is a few months too early. Otherwise this forum would be in meltdown.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

a northerly appears in FI but its pointless this time of year for those seeking wintery weather all it would deliver is rain and temperatures in the low to mid teens

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z operational run in high res is magnificent, look at those uppers, some parts of the south could be pushing high 20's celsius at times and mid 20's c for many other areas, the azores anticyclone builds northeast by friday and then strengthens it's position over the top of the uk in the following days, slowly drifting northwest and then pushing slowly east again, it looks like a memorable spell of summery weather is on the way making it a fantastic last 10 days of the month, it has to be said that from weeks and weeks ago the models were hinting at this, although the 500 mb anomaly charts much less so but now it's within touching distance and nothing can stop it now.

[Stormyking]

Interesting GFS into FI with that Northerly towards the end.

In the meantime the GFS is another Stonker for high pressure and warmth leading into next week, will be interesting to see how well the temperatures do, only time will tell  

 

Before that though still got another couple of weather fronts coming through between now and friday

 

This looks like to give some rain to some, but not to bad with the wind

[Scorcher]

Yes another brilliant run from the GFS, in fact it looks better than previous GFS op runs with higher uppers. Slightly surprised by the surface temperature predictions given the setup- would be very disappointed to only get 21C in Manchester from that setup, but the GFS has been a tad low in the past so it could be again.

[DTHFCJ]

A very interesting piece over on the BBC site,explaining what the difference Humberto looks like giving us here in the UK.

 

Temps up some 11 degrees in places

[Gaz1985]

Incredible 12z ensembles for Manchester and very dry  , I wonder if could this be de-ja-vu in terms of the following Winter? a very warm end to September 2011 brought a mostly mild Winter. 

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Incredible 12z ensembles for Manchester and very dry  , I wonder if could this be de-ja-vu in terms of the following Winter? a very warm end to September 2011 brought a mostly mild Winter. 

 

Most Septembers have warm spells like this. Its perhaps just wishful thinking on your part. I don't remember the last 3 winters being particularly mild?

[Frosty.]

More cracking charts, this time it's the GEFS 12z mean, high pressure domination until well into FI despite developments to the northeast, it's an increasingly warm and anticyclonic outlook from this friday until the end of next week at the very least, superb output today and emphatic cross model support in the bag.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Frosty.

[Joe8987]

I think people are being very optimistic suggesting this settled and very warm spell could last 1 or 2 weeks. Thats pretty much unheard of.

 

Im awaiting the charts showing the inevitable breakdown after around 4 or 5 days.

[Gaz1985]

Most Septembers have warm spells like this. Its perhaps just wishful thinking on your part. I don't remember the last 3 winters being particularly mild?

 

2011-12 Winter was mostly mild apart from a bit in February. It's been mild at the end of September but apart from 2011 I can't really recall many proper warm or very warm ends to the month at least not here, in the south east probably but not here, the early part of month yes it has certainly been warm. And yes of course it is wishful thinking for me to want a mild Winter, what's so wrong with that? others have been ramping up cold charts way out in FI a few months away. So I'll do the same with any mild charts that come my way thank you, as the mods say.... if you don't like what someone posts then there is a block feature 

Edited September 17, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Summer Sun]

No change from ECM