Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Methuselah]

Here goes, a nice new, shiny thread...

 

Previous: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77405-model-output-discussion-18z-280713/page-137#entry2786632

Edited September 13, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Captain Shortwave]

Some charts from the 06z GFS

 

 

 

I have to seriously question this mornings ECM output as it handles Humberto completely differently to every other model from T120. 

[William of Walworth]

That ECM output looks severely dire in terms of a direct hit on the UK, but I suppose we'd better not rule out some version of it.

 

Anxiously model watching for the Thurs 19th to Monday 23rd period (Lincs -- I've posted a question on the Yorks/Lincs regional thread about this.). The GFS above may not look too bad I suppose, if (like me) its less wet,  less fierce weather you're after. Albeit nothing like the very HP dominated charts for the same period progged a few days ago.

Edited September 13, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

I expect a mish mash between the dire ecm 00z and latest gfs, something less horrible.

[draztik]

As is the norm in this forum, if you don't like a particular model output - bin it, and go with the one that best suits your preference. We could all learn a lot from Frosty & CS

as for the ecm, its ec32 and control models keep the cool and rather unsettled trend going forward..

[Captain Shortwave]

As is the norm in this forum, if you don't like a particular model output - bin it, and go with the one that best suits your preference. We could all learn a lot from Frosty & CS

as for the ecm, its ec32 and control models keep the cool and rather unsettled trend going forward..

Err.... where did I say bin the ECM run??? I said treat it sceptically because it handles a key driver of our weather patterns in the 5-15 day range in a completely different manner to every other model output this morning. You keep saying how certain runs are outliers and all that, this is the perfect example of one. The ECM solution for this low has no agreement with other models which all show tropical storm Humberto on a similar track into the Atlantic jet with similar timings (around day 6/7 which is different to the ECM). 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The Meto 16-30 day outlook has finally got rid of the settled further outlook on todays update.

 

A rather changeable weather pattern is the most probable scenario through the remainder of September and into October with all areas of the country seeing some spells of rain or showers, with some drier and brighter days in between. Temperatures generally near, or occasionally a little above,the seasonal norm.

 

Won't be far off in my opinion. Weak ridgeing from the AZH now and again bringing the odd settled day here and there before the next LP sweeps in. Not far off what the models show either really.

 

Certainly no lengthy settled, warm spell or heatwave on even the distant horizon.

Edited September 13, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[SMU]

So then...

 

in the space of 48 hours-

 

Gone is the forecast for settled conditions next weekend ( Unless you fancy the worst run of the GFS )

Gone is the ensemble support for any settled weather -

Gone is the decent UKMO update....

 

The trend is clear ( although there is still a chance that it could swing back) that the ECM is paving the way & the other models are following-

The climo charts I posted last night SEEM to be continuing for a 6th year with the polar heights being more prevelant-

 

If I was asked to take a punt on the next 6 months inc sept I would say-

1 ave

1 above

4 below.

[Andy Bown]

 

If I was asked to take a punt on the next 6 months inc sept I would say-

1 ave

1 above

4 below.

With that Steve are you thinking Sept will be the above average month given how warm it's been so far?

[Captain Shortwave]

With that Steve are you thinking Sept will be the above average month given how warm it's been so far?

Not sure about elsewhere but this part of the world is just over 1 degree below average so far for September.

I have hunch that October might be the above average month, the CFS has frequently predicted November to be cold, December to be around average and the rest of winter to be cold. Just looking at the winter forecast/hopecast thread.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Bring on winter I say, those ecm synoptics are a waste of time in september.

[chionomaniac]

Hi Chiono-

 

Missed this last night-

 

Yep I agree, I think there have been a few fundamental changes in the last 5 years associated with the feedbacks being generated from the low ice conditions-  I think theres 2 feedbacks-

 

* The thermal gradient weakness for autumn - in terms of increased polar blocking-

* Low base state of snow cover ( starting point ) in Sept with rapid increases in October / Nov - feeding into the AO base state.

 

Looking forward to Winter!

 

Steve I have replied to this in the relevent winter thread

[Frosty.]

At least temperatures later in the month and through early october look like being either average or slightly above, something to celebrate amongst the doom and gloom.

[Summer Sun]

Just to follow on from what I posted in the old thread this morning

 

The ECM 30 dayer for Glasgow shows a recovery in temperatures over the next week or so with average temperatures to end the month and start October

 

 

Maximum temperatures recover sufficiently to run slightly above average from around the 20th onwards into October

 

 

Minimum temperatures also recover and get back closer to average from around the 22nd

 

 

The Birmingham ensemble is no longer available which is why I haven't posted it in a while

 

[Frosty.]

It's quite a turnaround from the met office, very surprising, considering all the extra data they have..but they are only human.

 

Not only that..the 500mb anomaly charts have hardly been screaming..dry and warm outlook, this is a bad day for those of us who like our dry and warm weather in summer and autumn, it's a black day...but it's also friday the 13th so perhaps it's also ironic.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

It's quite a turnaround from the met office, very surprising, considering all the extra data they have..but they are only human.

 

Yeah but its happened before the models (GFS and ECM) change a few days before there updates reflect this change in the outputs

[Frosty.]

Yeah but its happened before the models (GFS and ECM) change a few days before there updates reflect this change in the outputs

Yeah gavin, once we get through friday the 13th things might improve somewhat.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks nothing like as bad as the operational 00z run, the pattern flattens out by the end of next week with weak azores ridging for the south of the uk, a more zonal flow further north but not the persistent limpet trough anchored to the northeast of the uk, so whilst the latest met office update sounds pants for the week ahead, I feel there is still hope of something better beyond the next 7 days of windy, cool and unsettled weather, incidentally, it won't be as bad as the 00z op run charts show, sunshine and showers for most of the time with occasional longer outbreaks of rain with by far the worst conditions next week being across the far northeast.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Frosty.

[chionomaniac]

I have just deleted off topic posts that were started by one personal comment. Please remember the one strike and out rule.

Edited September 13, 2013 by chionomaniac

[UV-RAY]

It's quite a turnaround from the met office, very surprising, considering all the extra data they have..but they are only human.

 

Not only that..the 500mb anomaly charts have hardly been screaming..dry and warm outlook, this is a bad day for those of us who like our dry and warm weather in summer and autumn, it's a black day...but it's also friday the 13th so perhaps it's also ironic.

Kudos to Steve M though Frosty, although I did say last week how I felt the Azores high was being overplayed. Lots of fantastic weather watching coming up now that the boring dry weather is behind us. 

[mushymanrob]

I have just deleted off topic posts that were started by one personal comment. Please remember the one strike and out rule.

 

i hope you deal with people/posts that refer to 'unfavoured' weather types in a derogotory manner in  the same way over the coming months...

 

meanwhile, the anomaly charts whilst not in full agreement, do, and have done for some time, suggested a prolonged upper flow from the northwest. they have not given any hope of the gfs's settled spell which is always being put back.

[Frosty.]

Kudos to Steve M though Frosty, although I did say last week how I felt the Azores high was being overplayed. Lots of fantastic weather watching coming up now that the boring dry weather is behind us. 

Yep, credit where credit is due, quite incredible.

[mushymanrob]

Kudos to Steve M though Frosty, although I did say last week how I felt the Azores high was being overplayed. Lots of fantastic weather watching coming up now that the boring dry weather is behind us. 

 

 

 

the anomaly charts have not supported any pressure rise, john pointed this out several days ago, and he wasnt the only one.

[Frosty.]

the anomaly charts have not supported any pressure rise, john pointed this out several days ago, and he wasnt the only one.

Yes mushy, I mentioned the same thing earlier.

 

 

Not only that..the 500mb anomaly charts have hardly been screaming..dry and warm outlook, 

[Summer Sun]

Looks like this low will peak around 960mb

 

 

Before easing very slowly

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun