Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013

[Mapantz]

Plenty of sferics South of Ireland. 

[Panayiotis]

Yes radar looking interesting...

[Stuart]

Synopsis

Upper trough/low west of Biscay will migrate eastwards towards France. On its northern flank, advection of a very warm and humid airmass will occur from NW France to SW Britain, with associated mid-level instability. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain close to Biscay coasts towards Scilly.

 

Discussion

Along the plume axis, scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to drift northwestwards across the highlighted SLGT area throughout the forecast period, with some 400-600 J/kg MLCAPE. Given such instability, some stronger cells may produce small hail. Decaying cells may drift further north later in the day, although some uncertainty exists as to their northern extent.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/281

 

[Summer Sun]

Still nothing from the met office for tomorrow

[Jane Louise]

Synopsis

Upper trough/low west of Biscay will migrate eastwards towards France. On its northern flank, advection of a very warm and humid airmass will occur from NW France to SW Britain, with associated mid-level instability. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain close to Biscay coasts towards Scilly.

 

Discussion

Along the plume axis, scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to drift northwestwards across the highlighted SLGT area throughout the forecast period, with some 400-600 J/kg MLCAPE. Given such instability, some stronger cells may produce small hail. Decaying cells may drift further north later in the day, although some uncertainty exists as to their northern extent.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/281

 

 

Cheers Stu, one can, but only hope , one sees something at least Lol

[The PIT]

Still nothing from the met office for tomorrow

Dry and sunny for you in the north east.

Down in the south west possibility of some thundery showers. 18:30 forecast Louise Lear.

[Bobby]

Some cells developing across SW England now and a large intense one moving towards Bournemouth area. A lot of anaprop around the English channel off the S Coast further E.

[J10]

We seldom get anything here, and it that doesn't jinx it in our favour nothing will !!!!

Edited September 27, 2013 by J10

[Mapantz]

Some cells developing across SW England now and a large intense one moving towards Bournemouth area. A lot of anaprop around the English channel off the S Coast further E.

 

I was just looking at that, it has my name all over it! I best get down the pub before it arrives. :lol:

[Summer Sun]

Dry and sunny for you in the north east.

Down in the south west possibility of some thundery showers. 18:30 forecast Louise Lear.

 

Aye we are in for a good weekend here dry and sunny

[Costa Del Fal]

I think Thunder chances tonight at least are pretty Low but best chances of anything are Channel Islands and Southern Devon and Cornwall.

[A.J]

a quick re-post from the SW regional thread.....I tweeted Ian F on his thoughts for storm potential tonight into tomorrow...

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

@Arron_Poolshark feasibly yes albeit more likely across SW Peninsula

 

so there you have it, straight from the horses mouth, so to speak.....tying in nicely with thoughts and forecasts on the NW Boards

[Allseasons-Si]

By ek,this thread has woken a few up with the potential of storms in the next few days to a week,i for sure will be keeping a eye on next weeks potential as i am on mornings,it would be nice to see some storms for the last breath of this year before winter sets in,i do remember going to the norfolk broads one year in September(cannot remember what year though),and it was a fairly warm week and it went out with a bang,so sept is not out of the question for storms.

[Supacell]

I once chased a fantastic storm that was along a squall line on 20th October 2004. Frequent lightning and marble sized hail with squally gusts of wind. So not even October is out the question just that chances are much diminished in comparison to July.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Supacell

[Allseasons-Si]

I once chased a fantastic storm that was along a squall line on 20th October 2004. Frequent lightning and marble sized hail with squally gusts of wind. So not even October is out the question just that chances are much diminished in comparison to July.

So another month then at a push

 

where was this Supecell,as to much anticipation.

 

p.s. 500 posts lol! hey

Edited September 27, 2013 by allseasons-si

[A.J]

Some very heavy showers pushing into Dorset/West Hants and up into Wilts now on a north/north north east vector as the mid-level air mass starts to destabilize..

 

image to illustrate current radar ppn spread in relation to my postcode

 

image courtesy of NetWeather Extra

 

 

[Bluebreezer54]

In the meantime there is currently live streaming of a storm chase taking place somewhere near Amarillo, Texas where apparently the prospects look quite promising. Hope it's ok to post this link here Mods, apologies if not.

 

http://tvnweather.com/live

 

Edit: The Dominator 2 vehicle has Reed Timmer on board I believe !

Edited September 27, 2013 by Bluebreezer54

[paul m]

Cannot get live feed from Dominator 2

In the meantime there is currently live streaming of a storm chase taking place somewhere near Amarillo, Texas where apparently the prospects look quite promising. Hope it's ok to post this link here Mods, apologies if not.

 

http://tvnweather.com/live

 

Edit: The Dominator 2 vehicle has Reed Timmer on board I believe !

Edited September 27, 2013 by paul m

[Bluebreezer54]

You getting live feed from

 

Cannot get live feed from Dominator 2

It's working fine for me Paul, I believe they were stationary for a while earlier but they are now on the move again with Reed providing a commentary

[paul m]

Nice Lightning in Russ live feed

[Mapantz]

Just got back from the pub and dodged a cracking shower, 51mm/hr rain rate, 2.2mm of rain fell in ten minutes, two huge flashes of lightning and some deep rumbles of thunder, that's more than i got during the Summer storms.

 

Massive drops of rain falling here right now.

Edited September 28, 2013 by Mapantz

[butler_son]

So I'm just sitting here at 2ish am, casually chatting with one of my best mates in Colorado when a bright flash lights the room.

 

My reaction: WHAT ON EARTH? Is the power supply in Verwood that bad that the flickering is that noticeable?

 

Mid rant, I hear a huge crack of thunder.

 

So yeah, thunderstorm in East Dorset happened I guess?

[Panayiotis]

Radar at 4am

Edited September 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Panayiotis]

Thunder and lightning seen/heard in Cardiff from the cell to the west of me (I think) !!!

Edited September 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cakie]

Storm in the distance, decent lightening but I think mostly in cloud.. Sounds like a biggy but a way off yet