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Stuart

Christmas 2013 Forecast

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TBH we struggle to get a decent forecast for next week so chrimbo is too far off yet IMHO, stats however will show the chances are low for cold and snow.

 

My forecast is, poor with a light sprinkling of prezzies and maybe a glass or two of something wet.

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Christmas 2013: Wintry in the north?

 

TheWeatherOutlook says

Well into the second half of autumn so how are things panning out for the eight Christmas weather update? The weather in recent weeks has remained locked in a mobile westerly pattern bringing rain and above average temperatures. It looks as though autumn 2013 will turn out to be more mobile and stormier than some recent ones. How does this impact the Xmas forecast? Substantial high latitude northern blocking currently looks less likely to develop in the early part of winter this year, so December could bring further spells of mobile weather. However, with significant mobility colder incursions may develop quite frequently in northern regions of Britain as we head towards the Xmas period. Taking this into account the eighth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas in the south and increases it in the north.

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%

Forecast issued
Update 8, 02/11/2013

The computer says [issued 02/11/2013 19:02:50]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Christmas 2013: South for cold?

 

Christmas is rapidly approaching on the calendar but in weather terms it's still a very long way off! Recent weeks have brought a mobile westerly flow across the UK with plenty of rain and close to average temperatures. Over the Scottish mountains temperatures have been low enough for significant snowfall. There are now signs of a change through the second half of November with high pressure possibly building across the UK.

How does this impact the Xmas forecast? The Atlantic continues to look more active than in recent years and this could mean high pressure at times builds closer to the UK instead of Greenland to Iceland. In this set-up colder conditions would be more likely in southern regions (and even more likely in France) rather than the north and west.

Taking this into account the ninth update increases the chance of a White Christmas in the south and decreases it in the north.

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued
Update 9, 09/11/2013

The computer says [issued 09/11/2013 19:04:00]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the south
  • Snow is expected in Wales
  • Snow is expected in the Midlands
  • Snow is expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • Snow is expected in Northern Ireland
  • Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Started looking at the CFS for guidance using the same timed output each day (12z) - Of the 7 runs so far since I started last Sunday, 6 or these were completely dry on Christmas day for the majority of the UK. The most common placement of core heights to the south east of the UK over the Alps/Germany. Would lead to average temperatures with the chance of frost and fog in places.

Just 1 run was unsettled throughout the Christmas period and brought periods of rain/sleet or snow across the whole of the UK on a generally polar maritime based flow.

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definitely 50 % for Boxing Day... Life is worth living for... 

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Current white Christmas betting from Paddy Power:

 

 

Dublin 3/1

Galway 5/1
London 7/2
Belfast 6/1
Derry 7/2
Glasgow 11/4
Cardiff 5/1
Manchester 3/1
 
Applies to snow being recorded at the main location on 25th December 2013. www.wunderground.com results will apply.

 

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3/1 ... not bad odds -  ties in with NWs 35% chance  - are Paddy Power using this site for their odds :)

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Belfast 6/1 and Cardiff 5/1??? Wth surely Belfast has a better chance of snow seen as its about 400-500 miles further north!!??

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Belfast 6/1 and Cardiff 5/1??? Wth surely Belfast has a better chance of snow seen as its about 400-500 miles further north!!??

 

But also further west, west always the mildest

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I'm getting married on 28th December, so I'm keeping my eye on the forecasts....

 

Be nice to have a few inches of lying snow with clear blue skies.......

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From mid December towards Christmas the weather pattern may shift again with the jet stream moving northwards. This would bring changeable and often wet and windy but milder temperatures to the UK, so a low chance of a white Christmas, and temperatures also above normal over Scandinavia and eastern Europe to Russia.
 
At the moment all indicators suggest that this winter will be warmer than normal over Scandinavia and eastern Europe to Russia. However, over central Europe and southern UK January may be colder and mainly dry for a time with a large ridge and surface high pressure system developing as the jet stream meanders across the north Atlantic to northern Scandinavia. We don't see any extremes of cold weather at the moment with anomalies just a little below normal at worst, but this could change later in the winter if there is a stratospheric warming event in January.

 

 

http://uk.weather.com/story/news/november-december-outlook-20131108

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Christmas 2013: Snow chance higher

 

 

Although Christmas is still a long way off there are signs of colder weather developing during the second half of November and possibly continuing at times as we go through December with high pressure close to or perhaps just north of the UK. 

How does this impact the Xmas forecast? With conditions possibly becoming more favourable for high pressure blocking during the next few weeks there could be an increasing risk of snow. The coldest conditions could affect southern regions.

Taking this into account the tenth update increases the chance of a White Christmas in the south and north to above the long term average. 

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

Forecast issued
Update 10, 16/11/2013
The computer says [issued 17/11/2013 07:10:03]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Snow is expected in the Midlands
  • Snow is expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • Cold conditions in the Republic of Ireland are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Xmas 2013, calm generally dry and a touch mild.....ready for a chaotic New Year

 

BFTP

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Xmas 2013, calm generally dry and a touch mild.....ready for a chaotic New Year

 

BFTP

 

bit like 05 and 06 then? better than last year, Xmas eve was a washout here

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Xmas 2013, calm generally dry and a touch mild.....ready for a chaotic New Year

 

BFTP

Echoes my thoughts. So many CFS runs (been using the 12z output each day for the past 15 days or so), must be 80-90% of the runs has high pressure close enough to the UK to bring dry and fine weather for the majority of the country. I'm going more average with frost possible. Snow risk looks 10-20% and would likely be for exposed coasts only, if at the time we had heights out west.

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Christmas 2013: North and south alike

 

TheWeatherOutlook says
Colder air has encroached on the UK recently but generally the weather has been close to average during the last few weeks. It looks as though things will remain similar during the rest of November and into the early part of December. High pressure currently looks like being located to the sout west of the UK, but there is some uncertainty about this. Pulses of colder air may cross the UK at times, but there is little sign of a major freeze like we say in December 2009 and 2010. 

How does this impact the Xmas forecast? There hasn't really been a significant change in the outlook since the update eleven.

Taking this into account the twelfth update maintains the same chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the country. The percentage chances given remain above the long term average. 

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

Forecast issued
Update 12, 23/11/2013
 
The computer says [issued 23/11/2013 15:01:14]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the south
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Christmas 2013: Colder in the south?

 

TheWeatherOutlook says
High pressure continues to dominate the weather, but it does look as though a change will take place as we head into December. An initial cold plunge may be followed by a more unsettled spell in the north, with higher pressure and colder conditions possibly holding on further south and east for a while. Although the initial cold snap could be quite sharp most of the evidence is not pointing towards a sustained cold period like we say in December 2009 and 2010. 

How does this impact the Xmas forecast?

The thirteenth update maintains the same chance of a White Christmas in the south and slightly reduces it in the north. The percentage chances remain above the long term average for southern regions. The thinking behind this is that more mobile weather patterns are possible in northern regions, with the Atlantic having more influence and keeping it milder. 

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

Forecast issued
Update 13, 28/11/2013
The computer says [issued 28/11/2013 17:51:18]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • Cold conditions in the Netherlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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First tweet from Matt Hugo regarding Christmas

 

Christmas 2013: Primarily using EC32/CFSv2 and some other 'variables' Xmas, at this extremely early stage, looks unsettled / average temps.

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The computers says was updated yesterday, the detailed forecast has not updated

 

The computer says [issued 09/12/2013 11:03:02]

 

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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