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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Spring Weather Discussion

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Could folk actually post the uppers with those charts because I really haven't got a clue so its a waste of time actually posting them.

 

might i suggest you look at the actual charts to see them for yourself ?

Edited by bluearmy
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smithyweather Aficionado

smithyweather

Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted (edited)

I can't find the uppers for the ECM. I have looked on the weatheronline site a million times and  I don't know how to navigate that Meteociel site. 

 

The point of the matter is that the 850pha image would be more of a use to everyone than a height chart.

Edited by smithyweather
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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted (edited)

heres that chart again and the uppers that go with it

 

post-18233-0-00216500-1381434628_thumb.gpost-18233-0-20464700-1381434635_thumb.g

 

heres the link to the ECM uppers

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

yes........hmmmm.......people on here mock the Daily Express (rightly) for its OTT weather stories but to be honest it's not much better reading this thread at times during Autumn. EVERY winter is about to be the bestest, most coldest ever.Anyway, i'd love to see a cold November and a snowy December/January. Then it can warm up during february. But epic CFS charts aside, i'm not holding my breath (and they aren't quite so epic this morning i notice).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting an incredibly cold and snowy Winter, just seeing all the charts is making me look forward to the coming season a hell of a lot more :)
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

What is that?

 

a promising chart, IF, and its a massive if, if we got to that stage, we could see snow showers for NE parts 24 hours later.

Thank you

 

Nothing spectacular and would not bring snow for here.

 

It might do 24 hours afterwards , certainly to lower levels in NE Scotland and possibly in to NE England.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

a promising chart, IF, and its a massive if, if we got to that stage, we could see snow showers for NE parts 24 hours later.

Indeed with the low slipping east into the north sea, we could be set into period of winds from the north or north east.

It would take a brave man to bet that we will have snow to low levels in a fortnight. But he might also be a rich man by the end of October......

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

I can't find the uppers for the ECM. I have looked on the weatheronline site a million times and  I don't know how to navigate that Meteociel site. 

 

The point of the matter is that the 850pha image would be more of a use to everyone than a height chart.

 Netweather have the uppers for the ECM on their datacentre mate much better than Weatheronline or Meteociel if you ask me.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Forecasters give shovels warning

 

FORECASTERS have warned Scots to have their shovels at the ready this winter. UK Weather Forecast has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for the final month of the year. Conditions across January and February are expected to continue the trend from the past few winters, with cooler than average temperatures and more frequent snowfall than in the past two decades. The Lothians shivered through a late finish to winter earlier this year, with snowfall recorded around Edinburgh as late as April. The most widespread snow so far in 2013 hit from mid-to-late January.

 

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051

Edited by Summer Sun
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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

I can't find the uppers for the ECM. I have looked on the weatheronline site a million times and  I don't know how to navigate that Meteociel site.  The point of the matter is that the 850pha image would be more of a use to everyone than a height chart.

The pressure charts show you a ton more info about how things are evolving, where the air is coming from, whether it'll be wet or dry, etc, etc. Learn to read them and it's a lot more fun. You'll soon get to spot classic synoptic setups.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Latest thought's from Roger J Smith something similar to 2011 / 2012 at this stage a rather mild winter with one notable cold spell is his call for now

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2804532

Edited by Summer Sun
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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

Thank you

 

Nothing spectacular and would not bring snow for here.

 

nothing spectacular for the UK with that chart but the noticeable thing I have circled which would be widespread snow kicking into scandanavia which at this time of year is the main thing to be looking for.

 

post-18233-0-68954800-1381436044_thumb.gpost-18233-0-85655400-1381436050_thumb.g

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Well, i'm going for an unsettled winter.

Why?

Well i've used the same methodology as i did last autumn; namely my law of weather averages.

It's been predominately dry for the last 6 months plus, so i'm going for a renewed Atlantic to dominate from November.

The actual position of the jet stream will determine where, and when, gets snow and who gets rain.

So a real mix of mild and colder spells, and mainly unsettled.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

 Netweather have the uppers for the ECM on their datacentre mate much better than Weatheronline or Meteociel if you ask me.

 

Yes the interface and graphics on Netweather are the best by a country mile, the only reason I don't use them is that the ECM doesn't update as you go along and meteociel have virtually every global model, you will find that any GFS charts I post will be from netweather once we get to the nitty gritty part of the year, apart from the 10hpa stratospheric charts.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Some early snow in Eastern Europe at the moment. Currently snowing in Salzberg Austria

snowing over large parts of the Alps and probably down to fairly low levels by morning.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

Some early snow in Eastern Europe at the moment. Currently snowing in Salzberg Austria

Salzburg not really that far East either. Quite high elevation though, I think?
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Salzburg not really that far East either. Quite high elevation though, I think?

true! Just checked some webcams and it's snowing down to very low levels in Austria at the moment and very heavy too! Great news for early skiers!Currently a few inches in Viena which is 160mts above sea level Edited by Tim Bland
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Atlantic trough beginning to elongate like the ECM on the GFS 18z yet people more preoccupied with discussing Madden.

 

 

 

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

What is the impact of that

 

 

Hopefully the run will be like the ECM when it gets to 240, of course though we need to see charts inside 100 hours before we can have any kind of confidence in them, at the moment any charts are pipedreams but we can dream, I can see you like snow and so do I but really a lot of the posts in this thread are one liners or cold ramping posts, slang words / incorrect terminology and is used and cherry picked cold charts are posted (I admit I am a culprit at times),  if you really want to learn how to read charts or more about meteorology then I suggest to take more notice of the model thread although that can be the same, there is an in - depth version though, follow the forecast teams posts and also the learners guide and you wont go far wrong.

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

much better ridging of the high in the atlantic in the 18z compared to the 12z

 

18z on left 12z on right

 

post-18233-0-36620600-1381444139_thumb.ppost-18233-0-63133800-1381444147_thumb.p

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

much better ridging of the high in the atlantic in the 18z compared to the 12z

 

18z on left 12z on right

 

Posted Imagegfs-0-174.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-180.png

 

 

Yes, we now just want the trough to clear off eastwards, if it does we wont be complaining if its positively tilted (NE to SW) because we could then end up like the ECM and have a potent (for the time of year) North Easterly, that's what my moneys on happening on this particular run.

And as soon as I say it, it all goes tits up, should have kept my mouth shut.

FKN zonality on this low res GFS, Ian paradise run.

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

well the PUB RUN was looking good there till we hit FI.

 

should add for new comers the 18z is called the PUB RUN cos its like your little alchoholic friend that tends to wander off and do its own thing.

 

think the ECM solution looks quite possible after watching the GFS come more towards.

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